New England Snow Holes

[Tony Crocker]

Not to change the subject too much, but I'm curious about the 4.3% of wet snow months seen at Snowbird. I'm surprised that there's ever been even a single month that averaged 15-20% water at Snowbird. Is this an error?

That data was compiled manually and covers the seasons from 1979-1995. So I would have to dig through some archives that I haven't touched for well over a decade to see what months those were.

With regard to the New England rain data, keep in mind that the Mansfield Stake is at ~3,900 feet, higher than nearly all lift served terrain in the Northeast. With respect to both altitude and latitude it's safe to say that rain incidence is worse at most eastern areas. Patrick attempted to refute this with respect to Quebec, but the Laurentian data he found showed a similar pattern to the Mansfield Stake, so the altitude and latitude differences offset there. I am inclined to agree with JSpin that the altitude differences are not likely as big as most westerners assume. By observation the big rain events seem to rain everywhere in the Northeast. Occasionally there's a geographic boundary, as with the Quebec City group getting big snow out of that Christmas storm this year.

 

[Geoff]

My experience at Killington and Okemo this week was one of thin cover on natural trails and glades, lots of ice and hard pack and a desire to go back to the groomies & snow making trails.

Killington had a lot of high winds over the last week. If you know the mountain and were around to see where the snow was getting deposited, there were lots of places in the woods with great cover and a great surface. A lot of the hill was wind scoured suckdom with porcelain on a lot of the high traffic snowmaking trails.

 

[riverc0il]

And no offense, but I have a hard time calling it a great season when half the eastern reports are still mediocre and and only the dedicated aficionados like Riverc0il are scoring good days.

I have scored more good days this season to date than most other years, at least as far as lift service goes, for what it is worth.

J.Spin posted a SkiVT-l Mansfield Stake Graph but did not extend it out to the present which is more than a foot over average...

You may note that Mansfield has had four events of one foot or more snow year to date. Pretty damn fine to have four 1 foot powder days by the first week of January.

Just sayin...

...but I will admit that my perspective may be different than the average skier's view point.

 

[J.Spin]

J.Spin posted a SkiVT-l Mansfield Stake Graph but did not extend it out to the present which is more than a foot over average...

Thanks for posting that River, I had my labeled one made from back in December and didn't have the time to put labels on another one. Actually, back on January 4th at the peak differential we were roughly 18 inches (54 inches minus 36 inches) above average, but with the latest data in from today, the snowpack at the stake is just 7 inches (51 inches minus 44 inches) above average. Mt. Mansfield hasn't really been picking up much in the way of accumulating snow, so the differential with respect to average snowpack has been shrinking.

-J

 

[J.Spin]

…indeed, it does rain a lot in NE during the winter. And nearly a drenching inch when it does.

I’m not sure that “a lot” is the appropriate qualifier for a value of “1” or even “3” or “4” events, but it’s important to remember that that’s the number that really matters with respect to midwinter events and their effect on ski conditions, not the inches of liquid precipitation. Whether it’s a half inch, or an inch an a half of liquid, the result is pretty much the same with regard to the snowpack during that part of the year. The snowpack will often absorb the liquid, but conditions are likely to be hard when it freezes. What the 0.85 inches/month tells us, in conjunction with the average days of rain, is that you are on average looking at one moderate to large storm with rain or other mixed precipitation for each midwinter month.

 

[Marc_C]

…indeed, it does rain a lot in NE during the winter. And nearly a drenching inch when it does.

I’m not sure that “a lot” is the appropriate qualifier for a value of “1” or even “3” or “4” events, but it’s important to remember that that’s the number that really matters with respect to midwinter events and their effect on ski conditions, not the inches of liquid precipitation. Whether it’s a half inch, or an inch an a half of liquid, the result is pretty much the same with regard to the snowpack during that part of the year. The snowpack will often absorb the liquid, but conditions are likely to be hard when it freezes. What the 0.85 inches/month tells us, in conjunction with the average days of rain, is that you are on average looking at one moderate to large storm with rain or other mixed precipitation for each midwinter month.

Just for comparative purposes, in 9 seasons here, we've had perhaps 3 mid-winter rain events that go above 9K'. When that rare event does happen, it's on the order of 0.10", if that. You're talking 3 consecutive months of at least one event each month of nearly an inch. That's a lot. My point was that having skied over 20 years in NE, it always seemed like it rained a lot during the winter. Your data distillation illuminated that quite well.

 

[christopherb]

My experience at Killington and Okemo this week was one of thin cover on natural trails and glades, lots of ice and hard pack and a desire to go back to the groomies & snow making trails.

Killington had a lot of high winds over the last week. If you know the mountain and were around to see where the snow was getting deposited, there were lots of places in the woods with great cover and a great surface. A lot of the hill was wind scoured suckdom with porcelain on a lot of the high traffic snowmaking trails.

Yes, to be fair I am not familiar enough with Killington or Okemo to know where to find the better woods stashes. The glades I visited were marked and moderately high traffic (mostly off North Ridge) I spent many years living closer to the coast and skiing NH and Maine and this is only my second full season exploring VT.
It was amazing what kind of job the wind did on the fresh snow pack on the main mountain and it reaffirms my original post about conditions being average not great this year for most of New England. Case in point: some folks over at the Alpine zone were raving about great days out this past w/e not because of great snow coverage but b/c of light traffic due to the frigid temps.
I'm going to hit some local Berkshire areas later this week b/c I have some discount vouchers and let's hope we get on track for some more snow. Forecast looks like a snow drought out through day 10 but the weather here is so changeable I generally don't get discouraged unless temps. blowtorch.
However, I digress and the long range weather forecast is fodder for another thread... :stir:

 

[Mike Bernstein]

Having skied the SB trees for over a decade, I can tell you with a high level of confidence that having the woods ski like they are this early is fairly rare. Typically, we are sniffing around the cleaner, low angle lines of the mid-mountain hardwoods this time of year absent the occasional December mega dump (ala 2002-2003) The fact that it's essentially open season for the vast majority of woods terrain, and has been for over a week, tells you right away that it's a well above avg season. If I had to guess, I'd say in the 75-80th percentile if not a bit better. Now one of the things that makes NE so tough is that, at least w/r/t SB, they benefited from a streamer off Lake Ontario a few weeks back that dumped 2' + there where most other mountains got little to nothing. Woods season is Northern NE is generally a 2 or 2.5 month affair. They are on track for 3 months plus this year, so that's more than slightly above avg.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Even with the rain events it seems probable that the NE is actually scoring higher (at this point of the season) on Tony's Snow Conditions ranking than Northern/Central Colorado...

Actually very similar. Vail went from 44% open Dec. 30 to 85% shortly after New Year's. And we're comparing a 10% percentile start in Colorado to an average (or slightly above?) start in Vermont.

It is unlikely the comparison will hold up over the whole season. March is Colorado' prime month, and in the NE you average 3 of those rain events, not 1 as in the midwinter months.

 

[J.Spin]

Having skied the SB trees for over a decade, I can tell you with a high level of confidence that having the woods ski like they are this early is fairly rare. Typically, we are sniffing around the cleaner, low angle lines of the mid-mountain hardwoods this time of year absent the occasional December mega dump (ala 2002-2003) The fact that it's essentially open season for the vast majority of woods terrain, and has been for over a week, tells you right away that it's a well above avg season. If I had to guess, I'd say in the 75-80th percentile if not a bit better. Now one of the things that makes NE so tough is that, at least w/r/t SB, they benefited from a streamer off Lake Ontario a few weeks back that dumped 2' + there where most other mountains got little to nothing.

Thanks for your input Mike, that’s very interesting. In line with my comments earlier in the thread looking at Tony’s snowfall data and my own Waterbury snowfall data, I haven’t felt that the skiing has really been above average around here. But, I also haven’t visited the Mad River Valley areas this season. What do you think is going on with regard to what you are seeing for Sugarbush skiing vs. what Tony’s snowfall data indicate as of January 6th?:

Sugarbush
Season snow: 71 inches
Percent of normal: 69%

That snowfall number is pretty low. I guess if much of the snowfall had been very dense, it might explain some extra base relative to what one would expect for 69% of the snowfall, but so much of the recent snow has been so dry, that would be expected to exacerbate the snowfall deficiency. Has it been colder than normal or has there been less rain? The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield stake has been above normal for the past couple of weeks, but at this stage even a normal snowpack would mean open season for the trees. What do you think is going on?

Woods season is Northern NE is generally a 2 or 2.5 month affair. They are on track for 3 months plus this year, so that's more than slightly above avg.

Just off the top of my head I consider the entirety of January, February, and March to be virtually a lock in terms of tree skiing availability around here during an average season, with December and April being the fringe months that you can often get. For December, it depends on how comfortable one is with skiing the trees in lower coverage, or else you may need a big early season dump to get things going like you said. For April, the base is generally there (at least in the higher elevations), I just don’t typically ski the trees much in April because I’m not as big fan of skiing the trees when it’s corn, mush, or hard spring-cycle snow. They always seem to be skiing the trees at the SkiVT-L party each April though. If April features a lot of powder, then I will certainly find myself in the trees. Basing tree skiing off the 40 inch rule for the Mt. Mansfield stake, there should be four months (January through April) where the snowpack at the stake is at 40 inches or more during an average season, and from the comments on SkiVT-L in the past few weeks, it seems that many people consider the 40-inch rule too conservative. I always though that the 40-inch rule was conservative enough to account for tree skiing in the entire northern half of the state, but perhaps it’s not. When I get the chance, I will look closely at my archived reports and see when I have started skiing the trees each season, but from a quick perusal so far, I think the average start is well ahead of early January. It’s also possible that I’m just on the more liberal side with respect to coverage for skiing in the trees. I certainly don’t follow the 40-inch rule, although I think I have used it occasionally to make the final yes/no call on committing to a section of woods if they look questionable.

-J

 

[Tony Crocker]

There is no way the Vermont tree skiing within full lift service lasts until the end of April from the reports I've read over the past decade. Check MRG closing dates as evidence. JSpin's December comments do fit what I read here. People who get on it right after a storm are well rewarded, but the base usually settles back to something less than ideal before January.

In terms of trail counts, my snow conditions chart indicates that the mid-season plateau is not reached on average until mid-January. Whether expert trails open = woods skiable I'll leave to you eastern locals to debate, but I suspect there's close correlation. Also, it's safe to say that when mid-season rain/thaw/freeze events close the expert trails, you don't want to be in the woods either.

I would venture that there is a 4 month window (mid-December to mid-April) when the woods might be skiable, and with variable surface conditions 2 1/2 to 3 months of that time they actually are skiable.

I’m not as big fan of skiing the trees when it’s corn, mush, or hard spring-cycle snow.

I have to disagree here, perhaps prejudiced by my Baldy/Waterman experience. But I also note that some of the best eastern terrain (Sugarloaf Snowfields, Whiteface Slides) is more frequently open in good spring conditions than anytime in winter. I consider myself lucky to have had those conditions when I skied Paradise at MRG in 2003.

 

[christopherb]

Current New England estimated snow cover:

 

[Patrick]

There is no way the Vermont tree skiing within full lift service lasts until the end of April from the reports I've read over the past decade.
(...)
I would venture that there is a 4 month window (mid-December to mid-April) when the woods might be skiable, and with variable surface conditions 2 1/2 to 3 months of that time they actually are skiable.

I guess 2008 was in the previous decade? :-"

Jay VT - May 4, 08
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6808

There is some liftserved tree skiing until the end of April in Vermont, some years. To note, MRG closes when it cannot offer top-to-bottom skiing. The top is generally still in good/great shape when the single stops spinning.

But I also note that some of the best eastern terrain (Sugarloaf Snowfields, Whiteface Slides) is more frequently open in good spring conditions than anytime in winter.

Sugarloaf Snowfields and Slides will shutdown what before the rest of the mountain. Snowfields will meltout pretty fast compared to the rest of the mountain. Slides issues would be related to the melting water running under the snow.

I consider myself lucky to have had those conditions when I skied Paradise at MRG in 2003.

I don't think that very uncommon, odds are infinitely way better than the previous two places you've mentioned above.

 

[Patrick]

Current New England estimated snow cover:

Funny how this chart overlap in certain places into Canada. I would be curious to see a greater proportion of Southern Quebec and the Gaspe Peninsula. :-k

 

[Cannonball]

There is no way the Vermont tree skiing within full lift service lasts until the end of April

I couldn't find anyone here saying "until the end of April". But I will confirm what the other (VT skiers) are saying...there is usually April tree skiing to be had. Fortunately for us we are actually skiing in the real woods on real snow and not on your conditions chart. To paraphrase someone's wise quote "statistics are a poor substitute for reality"

 

[riverc0il]

There is no way the Vermont tree skiing within full lift service lasts until the end of April from the reports I've read over the past decade.

Tree skiing can be pretty epic during the first two weeks of April which suggests it can go late some years.

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/04/13/180

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/04/15/22 ... n-at-stowe

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/04/08/po ... nal-single

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/04/07/bo ... river-glen

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/04/06/am ... t-jay-peak

http://www.thesnowway.com/2006/04/06/am ... dleback-me

Big storms happened three years in a row in Aprils this past decade. I would bet serious money that lift serviced trees are skiable in late April at least every now and again.

Tony, with all due respect (and I truly do have a lot of respect for your experience, data tracking, and knowledge), I once again must submit that no matter how detailed of a statistician one is, if you are not skiing here every week, you can never truly appreciate and understand the conditions.

And for the record, I did misread the quote slightly and have edited my post accordingly. Last week of April tree skiing is definitely not a "never ever".

 

[riverc0il]

I would venture that there is a 4 month window (mid-December to mid-April) when the woods might be skiable, and with variable surface conditions 2 1/2 to 3 months of that time they actually are skiable.

I have skied trees as early as late October (http://www.thesnowway.com/2006/10/29/sk ... in-october) and as late as mid-April (see previous post). So to say that trees "might" be skiable for a 4 month window is completely inaccurate. It just takes two feet to open up some trees and as my Jay report from 10/29 suggests, three feet to open up good trees in October is entirely possible. The fact is trees "might" be skiable before the lifts even open and long after they have closed. "Actual" skiable woods is completely dependent upon location and its given weather that year. NH is actually skiable much less than NoVT. But I would peg NoVT as "actually" skiable much longer than 3 months of a year.

 

[Harvey]

I'm amazed at how "little" snow it seems to take to open up the trees at Gore. Gore's had maybe 45 inches. I wouldn't call the tree skiing fantastic but it has been good. And not just low angle stuff - we are skiing everything.

One thing though - of the 40 inches that fell ... with all the wind ... you may actually have 60 inches in the woods and 20 inches on the trails.

I loved Gpetrics' quote in the awesome TR that FIS did from Stowe, the week before it opened:

"10 is the new 40."

The older I get, the more I value skiing and the less I value my skis.

Tony face the facts - no matter how many stats you roll out, we are still going to have fun.

Ski the east!

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Tony, with all due respect (and I truly do have a lot of respect for your experience, data tracking, and knowledge), I once again must submit that no matter how detailed of a statistician one is, if you are not skiing here every week, you can never truly appreciate and understand the conditions.

I bust on Tony a lot, but he's one of maybe two westerners who takes an active interest in the East, and I appreciate that. While he gets the generalizations down, the details, as mentioned by RivercOil, can only be learned by skiing here. We're talking about the snow belt in northern VT... but last weekend, with total snowfall only in the low 50s (some of which had been nailed by rain in early December), I was skiing the woods at Belleayre with very little trouble. And I'll do it again tomorrow.

And no tree wells! 8-[

 

[J.Spin]

Summary: Based on ten seasons of my data from the past two decades, on average, tree skiing in Northern Vermont appears to begin in the first half of December (mean date = less than or equal to Dec 9th) with approximately 2 to 3 feet (mean = 28.2 inches) of snow at the stake on Mt. Mansfield.


Details of the analysis are below

Just off the top of my head I consider the entirety of January, February, and March to be virtually a lock in terms of tree skiing availability around here during an average season, with December and April being the fringe months that you can often get.

The quote above was just my gut feeling about the availability of tree skiing around here, but since I don’t have a great memory for those sorts of dates, I went to my daily trip reports to get some actual data. I skimmed through my daily reports at the beginning of the seasons that I’ve documented, and found the first outing in which I skied in the trees, or at least commented that the tree skiing looked fine if I didn’t ski them due to other constraints (time, available equipment, abilities of friends, etc.). These are probably not “ultra conservative” dates for the start of the tree skiing season around here, but they are likely a touch on the conservative side for me because although I usually find time to ski each week unless the conditions are poor, I generally don’t ski every day. So, in some cases the tree skiing may have started up to a week before I actually got out to do some of it myself. Where do these dates stand with regard to the when the average tree skier around here is going to start skiing the trees? I’m not sure, but my dates are certainly not ultra aggressive/liberal. I generally don’t like to head into the trees if I have to worry about damaging my skis there, but let’s say the dates are somewhere in the average to aggressive range for the start of tree skiing season.

Some notes about the data: There are actually only 10 seasons in which I was living in Vermont and have a complete documentation of my ski outings, so those are the only ones I used for calculations of when tree skiing started. I did add data from a few other seasons for reference and completeness, but those data are marked with an asterisk and not included. The ’95-‘96 data are not complete because some of the early SkiVT-L archives were lost (but based on the fact that Castlerock’s Rumble trail was open on January 7th, the trees must have been skiable by that point), and the ’01-’02 through ’05-’06 data aren’t entirely useful because we lived in Montana and didn’t ski Vermont until the holiday period. For reference, the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield stake on the day of the report is included in parentheses to the right of each entry, and to provide a more qualitative idea of what the skiing was like, each date is a link to the text report (which should have a link to any images if they are available). I’ve also added a relevant quote from each report.

’94-’95: *Jan 7, 1995 (35”)
Sugarbush: “Checking at that critical point on the lift, Rumble=Open, Ooooh baby.”

’95-’96: Dec 2, 1995 (27”)
Sugarbush: “Oh yeah, the Exterminator/Bravo/Elbow woods were abound with people suckin' up the freshies and after this weekend's snow, they should be even better.”

’96-’97: Nov 27, 1996 (21”)
Stowe: “Plenty of trees with freshies for those that want them.”

“97-’98: Nov 29, 1997 (27”)
Stowe: “I checked out a few woods, and some are ready; but a lot of the small trees are still sticking out (Toll House woods, Triple woods) so it was kind of a "that's enough for now sort of feeling".”

’98-’99: Dec 20, 1998 (21”)
Jay Peak: “From what I noticed in my short jaunts into the Jet/Haynes woods though, much of the natural cover is skiable.”

’99-’00: Nov 18, 1999 (30”)
Sugarbush: “I realized that I was now in the realm of the new gladed trail known as "Deeper Sleeper", so I hung a right onto Sleeper Road, and before I knew it, I was face to face with an untracked, unroped glade!”

’00-’01: Dec 20, 2000 (39”)
Sugarbush: “So, I turned right, into the woods, to check them out. The woods had great snow, a foot (the combination of Sunday / Tuesday) of powder over the firm base.”

’01-’02: *Montana (Dec 29, 2001) (18”)
Sugarbush: Likely no tree skiing

’02-’03: *Montana (Ty Due, No VT Trip)

’03-’04: *Montana (Dec 26, 2003) (57”)
Sugarbush: “Then we all disappeared into the untracked Hot Shot woods. The base was certainly deep enough to cover up most of the underbrush because my line took me all the way to the bottom before I knew what hit me.”

’04-’05: *Montana (Dec 27, 2004) (29”)
Jay Peak: Beyond Beaver Pond - “Coverage was good in general, partly due to the impenetrable base, but areas of rock and sticks were evident in the steep ledgy areas.”

’05-’06: *Montana (Dec 24, 2005) (40”)
Bolton Valley: “Like the lift line under the new quad, the woods needed a bit more coverage, but you could certainly hop in with your rock skis and get some fluffy turns.”

’06-’07: Dec 30, 2006 (22”)
Bolton Valley: “I spied a connection into a more thickly gladed/wooded trail to the skier’s right (this may have been part of the “Upper Glades” trail), and it seemed devoid of any recent tracks. It was very tempting to dive in there and catch a fresh line, but Ty had already started down the run we were on and I didn’t want to lose him. I’m hopeful others got the chance to expand the skiing into that area and ski all the fresh lines. I was still blown away that all that terrain was open with such great coverage.”

’07-’08: Dec 4, 2007 (40”)
Bolton Valley: “As we approached the lower mountain, Quinn directed us toward the Glades area, and eventually we ventured into the open lines off to the right of the formal Glades trail. Quinn mentioned that it was called “something” Woods, but I can’t recall that exact name.”

’08-’09: Dec 14, 2008 (25”)
Bolton Valley: “We didn’t hit any expert terrain with the boys, but we did end up going off piste and hit some advanced terrain when Ty noticed that some of the Forest area was open. The snow in there was excellent, with packed powder and powder available. There were a few objects poking around that might grab your skis, but coverage was mostly there, and that was on the lower half of the main mountain.”

’09-’10: Dec 19, 2009 (30”)
Bolton Valley: “It was opening day for the Wilderness Chair, so I took the opportunity to catch the lift assist and check out the condition of the powder off the back side. In line with what I’ve been hearing, there is excellent snow out there, especially up high. I explored some new lines on the south side of the bowl below Paradise Pass, and generally found 8 to 14 inches of powder over the base.”


Average date for the start of tree skiing: Dec 9
Average depth of snow at the Mt. Mansfield stake on that date: 28.2 inches


Some comments/observations:

- The reports come from a reasonable selection of resorts in the northern half of Vermont: Jay Peak, Stowe, Bolton Valley, and Sugarbush.

- Most of the references were to off-piste trees, although a couple references were to more formal gladed runs.

- As I somewhat expected, I don’t obey the 40” rule with regard to when I start skiing the trees around here; on average I appear to start when the snowpack is about a foot shy of that mark.

- In my previous post, I mentioned that I considered December to be a fringe month with regard to availability of tree skiing, although based on my average tree skiing start date of December 9th, it is much less fringe than I thought.

- My feeling that “the entirety of January, February, and March are virtually a lock in terms of tree skiing availability” seems to be generally on track, at least with regard to the front end of gaining sufficient coverage for the terrain in the trees. In all of the 10 seasons for which I have sufficient data, the tree skiing started up in November or December; none of them were even in January. The fact that the closest to a January start to tree skiing was December 30, 2006, in a season with an extraordinarily poor start featuring very low snowfall in both November and December, suggests that having to wait until January for tree skiing should be very infrequent.

- Even with my previous analysis and plot of the snow depths at the Mt. Mansfield stake (32 to 40 inches) during the Christmas-New Year’s holiday period, I was still somewhat surprised by what my tree skiing dates suggest in terms of what to expect for off piste skiing during the holidays. While off piste holiday skiing may not be guaranteed, it should be expected, at least in terms of coverage. Indeed, tree skiing was provided in three out of the four seasons in which we came to Vermont for the holidays when we lived in Montana. For some reason I cannot find the full report for our December 2001 trip to confirm that we didn’t ski off piste (perhaps I never got around to writing it) but based on E’s short report and the fact that there were only 18 inches at the Mt. Mansfield stake, I suspect that tree skiing was not practical.

- The Thanksgiving period was another surprise. I remember snowboarding in the trees with Dave off Stowe’s Mansfield triple chair during one Thanksgiving period, and thinking how unique that was. Before working up this analysis, if I’d been asked how many times tree skiing was available by Thanksgiving around here, I would probably said “once that I can remember”, but apparently it’s a little more frequent than that. Of course it depends on exactly when Thanksgiving falls, but three of the tree skiing starts in my list above were at the end of November, and I believe the one I actually remember with Dave is prior to any of those listed, so it’s not as rare as I thought.

- As far as the back end of the season goes, I have not done an analysis of my own tree skiing in that period, but it’s a lot different than the front end. Whether the season has been fantastic or a total dud, the skiing usually finishes up within the same timeframe that spans a couple of weeks. Obviously there is room for debate on exactly when the tree skiing ends, but again based on the stake data, there should be some tree skiing available through the end of the month.

- In terms of how this season rates with regard to tree skiing from my perspective, it started on Dec 19 vs. and average of Dec 9, so certainly not way above average in that regard. Of course the date alone does not speak to the quality of the skiing.

-J