We got four inches of rain in NJ. How much snow at Stowe?
Northeastern U.S. Weather
- Thread starter jamesdeluxe
- Start date
We got four inches of rain in NJ. How much snow at Stowe?
Late am, maybe 11:30.
People here know the basics of lake-effect snow; however, this WP article provides a nice refresher with several details that I didn't know.
Any chance you could post the text of that article for us non subscribers please? Or is that kind of thing frowned upon?
Whenever I post the link any article from the NY Times or Washington Post, they're always "gift articles," meaning that anyone (i.e. non-subscribers) should be able to read them. I just tried it again and the WP website gave me the same gift link that's in #105 above. Can anyone else try it?
Would have to create a Free Account to read the WP article.
Maybe it’s some kind of location thing?
Try this. If it doesn't work, I don't know what to say. I've been asked not to post full articles as that's apparently poor internet form. A shame as it's an excellent piece with some nice graphics.
In my snow tracking over the years I've observed an uncanny pattern of rain in the Northeast at Christmas. This year looks like a happy exception. Vermont Killington and north has had 15-24 inches in the past week+ ending today, with areas now averaging about 3/4 open. The rest of this week is predicted clear with temps in the 30's during the day but teens at night for top off snowmaking.
berkshireskier
Member
You may have spoken too soon, Tony. The forecast is now to warm up over the weekend and rain for all of the Northeast on Sunday and Monday, Dec. 29 and 30. Ugh. Too bad because it has been very good snowmaking weather for the past few days. Was -4 (F) the other morning at our house.
Deterministic forecasts for Vermont show zero precipitation through Dec. 31.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Big rain event on or around 12/31
berkshireskier
Member
I think you're mis-reading the chart, Tony. The "0" prediction for Vermont is for "snow" and not "precipitation", that would include rain. See the link below to Accuweather prediction for Burlington, VT for the next seven days. Shows warm temps and rain for, at least, Sunday, Monday, and maybe Tuesday, Dec. 29-31. Even the high temps for Jay Peak in northern VT are in the 40's for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. So, rain throughout the Northeast this weekend. Too bad but this is life in New England but maybe turning colder after and maybe some snow.
I stand corrected. Rain starts Sunday the 29th. That's still 3-5 days of good skiing that the Northeast usually does not see during Christmas break before then. At OpenSnow's state level page I saw the mixed precip icon for Dec. 31 and assumed that blank before that meant no precipitation. But when you click on an individual ski area the rain on the 29th and 30th shows up. The narrative forecaster did not mention the rain yesterday but he does today.
berkshireskier
Member
Not much natural snow in the Northeast but very good snow making weather. Was 5 degrees this morning at my house, with low humidity. Stowe is reporting 93 of 129 trails open. Rain and warm weather will hurt some but it's the new reality that ski areas have to deal with.
Rain is and always has been a feature of Northeast ski area weather.
From my snow quality webpage:
It is true that rain incidence in marginal locations is increasing. Mansfield Stake data split here:
Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Total | ||
| Avg. Days | 2.88 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 1.22 | 1.95 | 3.79 | 12.50 | 1982-2000 |
| Avg. Rain | 2.43 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 1.74 | 7.51 | |
| Avg. Days | 4.76 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 1.06 | 3.06 | 6.00 | 19.29 | 2001-2017 |
| Avg. Rain | 2.15 | 1.85 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1.40 | 2.45 | 9.16 |
The Mansfield Stake no longer has a human observer after 2018.
SoCal ski area rain days split here:
Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Total | |
1978-2000 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 0.78 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 3.39 |
2001-2024 | 0.42 | 1.42 | 1.33 | 1.21 | 0.75 | 0.17 | 5.29 |
The Mansfield Stake is close to a best case location on Northeast context due to both altitude and distance from the Atlantic. Most NE ski areas will have more rain days.
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