RAIN THEN FREEZE

I've been watching this really closely since I'm heading to northern VT for 5 days starting Tuesday night.

It looks like south of there may be pretty screwed, but I think northern VT may come through in decent shape. Based on the forecasts it looks doubtful it'll get much above 35 to 40 at the ski areas up there, and there may be a few inches of snow on the back side of the first storm (Tuesday night/Wednesday morning). Dust on crust is better than crust.

The second storm (Friday) is looking like a snow/sleet mix right now based on what I've been reading and could still end up mostly snow in the north I think.

At this point I'm hoping things hold out that way since we're taking the trip now since we simply couldn't make any time in February really work out. I'll have trip reports up, but probably no pictures. Plan right now is to use a really cheap Burlington ski & stay at Sugarbush on Wednesday, head to Smugg's on Thursday to use up Warren Miller vouchers, do Stowe on Friday, and then some combination of Jay, MRG or cross country on Saturday and Sunday depending on conditions.

-Craig
 
It looks like south of there may be pretty screwed, but I think northern VT may come through in decent shape. Based on the forecasts it looks doubtful it'll get much above 35 to 40 at the ski areas up there, and there may be a few inches of snow on the back side of the first storm (Tuesday night/Wednesday morning). Dust on crust is better than crust.

The second storm (Friday) is looking like a snow/sleet mix right now based on what I've been reading and could still end up mostly snow in the north I think.
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no matter how you slice it , it's still like putting lipstick on a pig...
i think there will mix precip to the Canadian boarder
 
But if it starts & finishes as snow, Northern VT (talkin' Stowe/Smuggs & Jay, maybe Bolton) can end up better than you might expect. Think of how many of Powderfreak's & Riverc0il's "it was much better than I expected" reports we've received this month.

Keep the faith. I'm more worried about the event next week (2/5?)
 
the event for 2/5 could be horrific.. The ECMWF is painting a full blown gale to our left.... :evil:
I will try to keep the faith
 
jasoncapecod":2drp9r9y said:
the event for 2/5 could be horrific.. The ECMWF is painting a full blown gale to our left.... :evil:
I will try to keep the faith
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I saw some mention of the ECMWF not agreeing with the GFS in earlier forecast discussion, but that has changed... really doesn't look so bad now. A quarter inch of rain on Wednesday, followed by the system on Friday which does look like mostly snow. Bottom line, we've already recovered a lot of base since the thaw, and we're not going to lose it. From the folks at Burlington:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 234 PM EST MONDAY...MAIN WX FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MVS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MDLS HAVE SFC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURS NGT. BY LIFTING
THIS RIDGE NNE INSTEAD OF OFF THE COAST...LL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP AT
THE ONSET WILL BE WINTRY MIX OF SW/IP AND EVEN POCKET OF
FZRA...BFR GOING TO MORE SW/IP BY FRIDAY NGT AS CD AIR WRAPS
AROUND SFC SYSTEM. MDLS BRING LOW TOWARDS GULF OF MAINE LATE FRI
NGT...W/ UPPER TROUGH ON ITS HEELS...PROVIDING CWA WITH LGT SW
THRU MIDDAY SATURDAY. SAT AFTNOON/EVENING...MOST OF CWA UNDER
BUILDING RIDGE...W/ SOME SW/CLD REMNANTS FROM EXITING SYSTEM FOR
NE VT. QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM BUILDS SE OVER THE REGION FROM CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL FOCUS BULK OF ANY SW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BFR LIFTING OUT. RIDGE OVER THE CWA SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON.
SOME HINTS AT POSSIBLE LEADING EDGE PRECIP FROM FRNT ON MONDAY.
WILL KEEP A SL CHANCE IN FOR NOW AND AWAIT FURTHER RUNS FOR
CONTINUITY.
 
Oh well, at least my last day up in VT is going to be February 3. I do agree, the February 5 system looks like bad news for most everyone in the east at this point, but things do change quickly with these models, especially more than 4 or 5 days out.

If it makes people feel better, from reading up on accuweather.com blogs and some other sources it seems like signs of the NAO going negative (which usually corresponds to good shots at coastal storms) around February 10 are decent. With a bit of luck, after the 7 to 10 sketchy days, things may take a turn for the better for the rest of February, especially to the south where we've been hurting for snow in a big way (the cold has been good, but I'd still love to see some more natural snow in areas like the Catskills this year).

-Craig
 
This may be what Craig is referring to, from Henry Margusity, the eternal optimist. He seems to thing the pattern will go favorable sooner rather than later:

... A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING...

I think the important aspect of today's discussion is the change in the overall pattern. The last two months have brought a pattern of storms either cutting into the Great Lakes or redeveloping along the Northeast coast. I think as we go into February, the pattern begins to change and the trough becomes established in the East. The NAO gradually goes negative, and there are signs the La Nina is weakening. The thing about the pattern, it will probably be one that allows storms to migrate through the flow instead of locking off or forming closed lows. That type of pattern may develop as we go into March. Storms will become more established along the East coast, and that means potential exists for snowstorms. I am excited about the overall pattern, and as I have said all weekend, the pattern initially could produce Big Daddy of storm, like the one I am watching for Feb. 3-5 on the GFS.
 
the pattern initially could produce Big Daddy of storm, like the one I am watching for Feb. 3-5 on the GFS.
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For Detroit...The ECMWF has a pretty good track record in the long range unlike the GFS
 
Just for the record, my weather whore information comes from a combination of accuweather.com (and its blogs), wxrisk.com, Herb Stevens at snocountry.com and reading the forecast discussions out of Binghamton, NY, Burlington, VT and Albany, NY.

Henry Margusity is a bit of a nutter with weather, but he has nailed some things this year (including the I95 storm that the National Weather Service completely screwed up). There is no doubt we are in trouble with the Feb 3-5 storm right now, but I think GFS long range has a lot of signs of coastal storms in the day 7 to 14 range (along with the NAO outlook looking decent).

I almost decided to major in atmospheric science; then I decided that I wanted to make enough money to be able to eat something other than rice and beans.

-Craig
 
jason,

Note that DT on wxrisk.com is based out of Richmond, VA and he is a snow hound. Naturally, if you think it's frustrating for a snow lover in somewhere like NYC, you should try being in Richmond :) . His scroll is very negative for the east right now, but he very rarely separates New England out form the east even though the forecasts are often quite different.

Oh well, I'll have a first hand damage report from Sugarbush tomorrow night. We're only paying around $25 a ticket to go there on a deal at the Towne Place Suites in Burlington (and I get Marriott rewards credit, woo), so at least we won't be out a lot if conditions are bad. Just got my carving skis tuned up in anticipation of FAST surfaces.

-Craig
 
cweinman":309qs9c2 said:
Just for the record, my weather whore information comes from a combination of accuweather.com (and its blogs), wxrisk.com, Herb Stevens at snocountry.com and reading the forecast discussions out of Binghamton, NY, Burlington, VT and Albany, NY.

Henry Margusity is a bit of a nutter with weather, but he has nailed some things this year (including the I95 storm that the National Weather Service completely screwed up). There is no doubt we are in trouble with the Feb 3-5 storm right now, but I think GFS long range has a lot of signs of coastal storms in the day 7 to 14 range (along with the NAO outlook looking decent).
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Craig - thanks for the input. I know HM is a little out there. I've been following him because he ROOTS SO HARD for big storms. But he is in PA and looks at it from that perspective. I'll switch to your boy Herb.
 
@Harvey,

The downside of Herb Stevens' meanwhile is that he only posts on average every 7 days or so, but he is good for overall weather trends and what not (but not good if you want to see what the latest model trends are doing 36 hours out on a storm like HM).

@Jason,

It's impossible to follow models run from run honestly. The best overall forecast techniques from what I understand are actually to try to follow the trends generally. They always go back and forth and do crazy things. It's kind of incredible with all the forecast models and what not we have now it's still hard to nail storms down in the midwest and east. They seem to always know when they are coming, but beyond that, god knows.

-Craig
 
Feb. 5 is far enough off to take these forecasts with a grain of salt.

The weather forecasters were off a couple of times in last week's SoCal storms, even only a day or two ahead.
1) The storm starting about 3PM on 1/23 was predicted to last about 6 hours and drop 6 inches of snow. It lasted 18 hours and dumped over 3 feet.
2) The Baja storm with rain to 8,000+ was predicted to start late Saturday afternoon and go through Sunday morning. It started about 7PM and was done before dawn. A separate storm Sunday night dumped 2+ feet of snow, about twice what was expected.
 
One thing about weather in the east...in the winter, the slightest storm track differential can greatly impact millions of people in one way or another.

That's not the same thing as models fluctuating over hundreds of miles...but it does mean that a weatherguy can be 95% right in terms of cold and storm track, but he can still blow the forecast for 10 million people.
 
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