RAIN THEN FREEZE

Jason,

It's impossible to follow models run from run honestly. The best overall forecast techniques from what I understand are actually to try to follow the trends generally. They always go back and forth and do crazy things. It's kind of incredible with all the forecast models and what not we have now it's still hard to nail storms down in the midwest and east. They seem to always know when they are coming, but beyond that, god knows.
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I totally understand that.. I just have a habit in taking what the models do personally. Yes I am insane :wink: ..I know that each model has it's own idiosyncrasies ie: GFS tends to phase things to quickly etc..

Right now i am SNOW LOVER without any snow
 
OK Jason, I change my recommendation from "stay in Waterbury" to "stay in Morrisville", which will give you access to at least Stowe, Smuggs & Jay. Unless Canada's in your plans...as I keep hearing the "Go (further) North!!" proclamations from forecasters in the know.

Meanwhile, speaking of models, I'm with Jason, I do follow them and get excited or bummed out based on what they predict, even though it's a very imperfect science. But most folks - Tony C included - give them little credence. Just today, I mentioned to my co-worker - who's going to the Adirondacks next week - that it's supposed to get quite warm in the East next Tuesday. His immediate reaction was, "Beyond 3 or 4 days out, I don't pay attention to forecasts".

I sure hope he's right, but the event next week looks bad. Still, No.VT has pulled some rabbits out of the hat before.
 
"Beyond 3 or 4 days out, I don't pay attention to forecasts" is generally the way I look at it too. But it's human nature to remember the ones they screw up. Rarely do they blow a short term forecast as badly as last Thursday night here. But it's nice to have the error emerge in a positive direction :) .

I'm looking at few unpleasant days in western Canada coming up. Predictions of highs below zero F. Maybe they will be wrong about those too. But there will be some consolation riding up the hill in Kicking Horse's gondola or in a heated snowcat.

My gut feeling is that the winter weather forecasting is more difficult in the East than in the Pacific States.
 
Gotta agree with Tony on the greater difficulty forecasting in the East. I've got less experience with Western forecasting.... but it seems to me, many times, it's a matter of what the snow level/elevation is going to be. Even a few thousand feet isn't a 50 mile swing. When I've been out west, at Squaw and in the PNW it seemed like forecasters got the snow/rain elevation right.

Here's a ray of hope from the eternally optimistic accuweather crew - a redeveloping coastal low. Not sure where they got it, but hey maybe Stowe or Jay will pull it out:
 

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Ugly day (Wednesday, Jan. 30 at 8:30 AM) here in Western Massachusetts. Moderate rain outside with temps in the mid to high 30's. Not going to be good for the skiing this weekend, especially with more rain/mixed precip predicted for Friday and then turning colder. The base will be solid ice. It's too bad, because the skiing hasn't been too bad the past week or so with cold enough temps to do round-the-clock snowmaking. Maybe the North country will get snow on Friday.
 
.. and thus cometh the rain - walking to work this morning, north Montreal - icy sidewalk and rain. No rain reported for St. Sauveur for example though so maybe it's not too bad. fingers crossed!
 
sszycher":2mnehno8 said:
OK Jason, I change my recommendation from "stay in Waterbury" to "stay in Morrisville", which will give you access to at least Stowe, Smuggs & Jay. Unless Canada's in your plans...as I keep hearing the "Go (further) North!!" proclamations from forecasters in the know.
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That's good advice, more often than not. Although, this time around, I just took a look at the NAM for early Saturday, and it seems like the 850mb temp contours show the 0C line oriented due north/south as it plows thru Vermont...

Doesn't matter to me, as I'm already committed to skiing with less-skilled friends all weekend at Killington -- starting with Rams Head, :( so it's not like I'm signed up for a lot of powder skiing either way
 
this weekend's event is kinda funky.. the gfs has the 850 0 c line thru central vt but the 500 thickness is over 546 ..sounds like sleet ..
the event on the 6th is down right ugly..

this is what pisses me off about the east..RAIN.. out west the worst case it just stays dry...
 
Atskier: Hey, when conditions are subpar in the East, you are better off on groomed, low angle stuff (hello, Rams Head). Let's all pray for some backlash snows!

Jason: Yeah, looks like there will be no esacaping the event (ahem) on the 5th or 6th unless you are waaay up North (Quebec City, anyone?). But it looks like that will be the low point, and things will get better from there. In fact, the GFS long range models have now put an Eastern storm the following weekend (2/9 ish) back into play, followed by some clipper-type events for mid Feb. :?:

We just gotta get through the next week or so. We will. Late Feb & early March should be good. We gotta be patient, which obviously is not our strong suit.
 
sszycher":3a1pjj0t said:
Atskier: Hey, when conditions are subpar in the East, you are better off on groomed, low angle stuff (hello, Rams Head). Let's all pray for some backlash snows!
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I will not start at Rams Head. I will not start at Rams Head. I will not start at Rams Head. No way.

KMart still might have a few inches of fresh waiting in the morning. Not a lot but a little. First run of the day has to be on an untracked Cascade. Only then will I join my friends at rams head.

It's been two weeks since I've skied.
 
atskier":foun1p7j said:
sszycher":foun1p7j said:
Atskier: Hey, when conditions are subpar in the East, you are better off on groomed, low angle stuff (hello, Rams Head). Let's all pray for some backlash snows!
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I will not start at Rams Head. I will not start at Rams Head. I will not start at Rams Head. No way.

KMart still might have a few inches of fresh waiting in the morning. Not a lot but a little. First run of the day has to be on an untracked Cascade. Only then will I join my friends at rams head.

It's been two weeks since I've skied.
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You are more likely to be starting at Bear or Snowdon. I'll bet it takes them a while to get the high speed lifts functional.
 
Well...Jason...not sure how your plans are turning out, but one thing is sad but true....looks like the title of this thread is appropriate for multiple events.

Edit: Spensar - you caught me being an ugly American. Enjoy the new snow!
 
Looks like Laurentians and Le Massif will be in the best shape this weekend.

Ottawa - From Friday Morning to Friday Overnight we expect 30-40cm of snow.

Tremblant - From Friday Morning to Friday Overnight we expect 25-35cm of snow.

Le Massif - From Friday Morning to Friday Overnight we expect 25-35cm of snow.

Montreal and the Eastern Townships is getting the snow plus rain.
 
Well...Jason...not sure how you plans are turning out, but one thing is sad but true....looks like the title of this thread is appropriate for multiple events.
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thats what i've been preaching :cry:
I am waiting to see how the pattern shapes up before i commit .
 
2:00 PM - Friday - February 1 - We're having "mixed precipitation" here in the Berkshires of Western Mass right now. Not really sleet but not really snow either - sort of white, frozen particles coming out of the sky. Won't be too bad for skiing this weekend if it does not turn over to all rain. There's about an inch of this "stuff" on the ground.
 
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