Saddleback Mountain Expansion

ChrisC":1ltttv57 said:
My past comments on real estate/stocks -- it's really hard to fight the laws of big numbers. Things revert back to form. And I think it is risky looking for decent returns after a prolonged period of 2-4x normal - no matter how regional/specific the market.

The 2nd/3rd homeowners are just looking cash-flow wise, those people definitely exist. However, does the cost of owning at Saddleback outweigh renting whenever you want? Will you use it enough? Would that extra cash be better off somewhere else? Most people who got to this point, look at this. I think the novelty of the second home wears off after the realization of actual use/costs weigh in.

And the subprime could effect you a bit. Credit is harder to come by these days in general. Condos at Saddleback cannot appreciate at a rate that is too divorced from rest of the real estate in the area. And if it is tough for the others/locals to prop up the mid/bottom market, prices cannot go up too much.
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We're getting into very basic fundamental arguments that could be beaten into the ground because it yields no clear answers of whats best 1005 of the time.
rent or buy?
investment preference, stock market or real estate?

But I still completely disagree that the dynamics don't change when you're entering a nitch market like this. I'm not suggesting you'll get 4x the average but you may. Put it this way, your argument makes sense buying at any saturated ski resort. That's where you'll probably see more of a return of normalcy. But here, there's obviously more volatility.
For example, you buy a mutual fund that's performed well historically. Because of this you decide to buy shares. Eventually the fund becomes so bloated with assets that there's too much money to manage and yeilds decline. A new mutual fund with less (and new) money will allow for bigger returns, if managed correctly. Do you beleive it will? That's the million dollar question to any investment.

And from everything I know about the project and owndership, I do.
 
icelanticskier":1qju2ba2 said:
sugarloaf a contradiction? you funny man! sugarloaf's got a reputation that draws more skiers than saddleback ever will and if you want to know the truth i'll get nit picky and say that in fact sugarloaf is about 20 minutes closer from points south because it's shorter to get there and the road is much better, i even clocked at 15 miles shorter. plus the nail in the coffin is that boyne has their poop together and the loaf and sunday river will succeed in maine if anyone will. saddleback may do ok if they build a few properties per season and when they sell, build a few more, do some small upgrades but, as with burke vt people still won't go there over other close by resorts to warrant all of these future plans especially when the towns lack any infrastructure to support what is planned to happen on the hill.

love
rog
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Yes I said Sugarloaf was a contradiciton because you implied that Saddleback could never make it because of its location. My point was Sugarloaf made it. And you're right Sugarloaf will probably always draw more skiers but that doesn't mean that Saddleback can't enjoy a great reputation itself (and become more of a well-renown resort as it grows). I'm sure Killington draws 3-4x more skiers than Stowe per year. Does that mean Stowe doesn't have a great rep? I'd go to Stowe over Killington any day of the week. Just as Sugarloaf or Sunday River don't get as many skier visits as some others in Vermont. But the thing with these Maine resorts is that the majority of their skiiers are from Maine. Even though there is a smaller population of Maine residents, a higher percentage of those residents ski, than say Connecticut, Rhode Island, Mass. That's why they're able to survive. This is also the reason that Rangeley doesn't need the infrastructure to support the hill. It goes without saying that the braintrust behind the development know this. Complement it yes, support it, no.
 
skiharmony":iu80udi1 said:
Yes I said Sugarloaf was a contradiciton because you implied that Saddleback could never make it because of its location. My point was Sugarloaf made it.
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Barely. How many times did they go bankrupt?
 
i love the quote from saddlebacks founder, he said something like: "if there ain't fish under it, it ain't ice".
just tryin to lighten the mood and let the dead horse die.

let's all ski saddleback, best tree skiing in the east imo, best skiing period.
 
Barely. How many times did they go bankrupt?
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I was also under the impression that Sugarloaf has always been a dicey proposition financially. Wasn't that the reason ASC insisted on selling it with the more accessible Sunday River as a package?

But the thing with these Maine resorts is that the majority of their skiiers are from Maine.
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Which to me implies that the number of potential skier visits to support these places is limited. Sort of like the Baldy/Waterman situation here in SoCal. I'm clearly the target audience for those places. Yet when conditions were good enough I nearly always went to Baldy because it's that much bigger.

So if Saddleback thinks it's going to draw skiers who now go to Sugarloaf, I would be skeptical of that plan. Particularly with Sugarloaf under new competent management combined with Sunday River.

I realize that Maine produces far more days per season with reasonable ski conditions than Baldy/Waterman. So there may be some hope of "expanding the pie" and drawing in a few more skiers from out-of-state.
 
icelanticskier":1f0qeybz said:
let's all ski saddleback, best tree skiing in the east imo, best skiing period.
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I agree with let's all ski Saddleback. However, while best tree skiing and best skiing period is rather subjective, I have skied Saddleback and there are much better tree skiing and better skiing period out there. Let's not over hype the place. This is definitely a hidden gem that people need to discover, but it is most definitely not the best area in New England, nor should people go to Saddleback for their first experience believing that or they will come away disappointed. You could definitely make an argument that Saddleback has the tightest on map glade and tree skiing in New England. But Saddleback ain't got nothing on Mad River Glen, Jay Peak, Stowe, etc.
 
rivercoil!
exactly the response i was hoping for and expecting. thank you. when i think of best skiing, terrain is only part of the equation. those areas you mentioned are great of course but get skied out alot faster any day of the week, even the secret stuff, than a saddleback or burke or some other spots. plus, you don't have the feeling that you gotta rush around just to get some untracked lines. when i say untracked i mean top to bottom for multiple runs, open runs and trees and that's whats important to me. heck, hellbrook get's skied out faster than wordens worry or the dougs.

working at alta in the mid 90's really opened my eyes to the quality of skiing i was looking for, ya altas got some ok terrain but, when i'd look out my dorm window on a midweek pow day and see lines forming over an hour before the lifts would spin, i'd just throw the skins on and hike the other way and then i discovered solitude-what an improvement. solitude was the saddleback i was looking for. working there was great and skiing there was better. 9am on a saturday with 18 in of fresh i'd be the only one in line at 830 and a guest would ask me "where's everyone" and i'd say "alta" shhhhhh!

i love alta for that reason. i love jay for that reason.

clean canvas, that's what i love and there's plenty of it around if your willing to not work too hard for it.

rog
 
Sugarloaf vs Saddleback?

Although I've never been to Saddleback, I think it's hard to compare the two.

Someone mentioned location, location, location. It is about location first and foremost. The only reason that Sugarloaf survives is that it's an amazing mountain and has over 50 years going for it.

Not many mountains that size (trails, lifts) would be able to survive so far from any major populated centre close by. Sugarloaf can become it's in the TOP5 ski areas in the East in my opinion (It's my favorite with Stowe).

Although I don't have the numbers, I've heard that someone mentioned that it's mostly in-state. However I believe there is a great drawing power to the place, okay numbers might not be that big, but each time I've been I've seen license plates from Quebec and New Brunswick.

Patrick, the geographer
 
Word. My man, we seek the same thing but are just not speaking the same language. See my reports last year of untracked every run at Burke while the hordes were at Jay on Valentine's Day. Places like Burke and Saddleback are indeed blessed when it comes to untracked for many runs instead of just a few. That said, some of my best untracked all day last year were indeed at Mad River and Jay. But for the most part, that is the exception and lesser known 2k vert mountains rule for less competition on powder days. Still doesn't mean those mountains have the best terrain or trees though ;) just the powder sticks around longer. But they get less of it too... which certainly gives credence to hitting these mountains up on the busiest of weekends when the getting is good but competition is fierce else where.
 
Hi. Mainer here. Not a Rangeley local, but maybe more tuned in to the Maine skiing scene than some others on the board. Couple of observations on this long thread that don't seem to have been factored in:

1) Portland is a growing city with growing suburbs, attracting lots of precisely the kinds of people who might want to invest in property at Saddleback: prosperous, athletic, environmentally aware, and put off aesthetically by the circus atmosphere at places like the River and the Loaf. <i>Parking lot F?</i> Forget it. (They're not so environmentally aware, however, that they aren't prepared to drive two hours every couple of weekends to get their turns in.) They're liable to be interested in fly fishing and hiking and kayaking, all of which are offered in spades in the Rangeley area. The peace and quiet of the Rangeley lakes in summer is mirrored in the style of the ski area in winter.

2) Much of the success of Sugarloaf is already driven by regulars from the Portland area, who have a strong social identity tied to the little world up there. Everyone who's anyone seems to have a place there, or know someone who does. Next time you're there, count the Maine plates. More than half, typically. No reason Saddleback can't tap a different flavor of the same basic dynamic, just a bit more left wing and crunchy in an mildly upscale sort of way. A friend who's a hard-core skier and coach took his daughter to the Loaf for a week last February. One day they went to Saddleback and it was her favorite day. Why? Everything was just more relaxed and easy. No tension. If it weren't so cold there you'd see people doing yoga on the deck. My son feels the same way about it.

3) Here's another story about how Saddleback is already making a mark. My son takes tennis lessons from a local guy who's also an instructor at Sunday River. Last session of the season, he asks the eight kids "Who here is a skier?" (Trying to drum up business, no doubt.) Five kids raise their hands.
Teacher: "Where do you ski?"
Kid 1: "Saddleback."
Teacher: "Oh. Yeah. I'm hearing a lot of good things about that place. I've got to get up there one of these days."
Kid 2: "Sunday River."
Teacher: "Cool. See you up there."
Kid 3: "Saddleback."
Teacher: "Wow, happening spot I guess."
Kid 4: "Sugarloaf. My folks have a house there."
Kid 5: "Saddlelback."
Teacher: "You're kidding, right? Okay, I have GOT to see what this place is all about."
 
I have skiied most of the 2k vertical Vermont mountains as well as the the maine ones and I'd put Saddleback right there. It doesn't have the variety a Sugarloaf has but it will get there. Looking at the topographic maps of where they plan to expand on the east side of the mountain is without question some of the steepest most challenging terrain in the East (I was at the Portland ski show a couple of weeks back). And the fact that it is rarely skiied off definately makes it among the best around. I think Stowe is right there too.
 
list looks pretty good except for jay peak of course, the alta of the east. glad they didn't put burke on that list, well, that would've made too much sense. what does trip advisor know anyway.
nice list though.
rog
 
skiharmony":2553vxbg said:
Here is the link to the Top 10 Most Overlooked Ski destinations in the country.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_7614678

Something to keep in mind for the season. I'll be hitting up Jay Peak as well as Saddleback.
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Pretty lame list, IMO, though Saddleback is certainly justified. Cannon? A destination? Pah-lease. Cannon must have paid these guys off. I still can't get over the "book your flight" box that follows you around Cannon's web page and can not be missed on their home page. Dumb. Considering a destination? Skip Cannon, too many other good choices that merit "destination" status. Burke certainly would deserve to be on that list and is omitted. Jay Peak overlooked? Yea right to that. I wouldn't mind a few more people overlooking Jay Peak, though I certainly do not help my own cause on that count.
 
i think crocker has it right.

i also think that places like saddleback and burke, both super hills with great terrain, are never gonna be as successful as they think they are. they are always gonna teter on the edge of viability in todays ski climate...
burke is kidding itself with these grand expansion plans...i'm seeing ads for homes at burke for 950K... what!!!!!!.. that is a joke...it's not that it's not worth it.. it's a great area for sure...it's just way too far...no one goes there and no one is gonna go there...no one in the sense of anyone who brings in the real money... not people like all of us who ski on season passes and end up skiing for about 10 to 30 bucks a day...
it's the same problem ( if you want to call it that.. some locals could say it's not a problem and i would understand that) with saddleback and it's also why sugarloaf, no matter what any sugarloaf diehard says, is always gonna be a place that barely gets by, if it gets by at all...jay gets away with it cause they get money coming in from canada...
saddleback and burke and still not open yet...how do they think they are ever going to be major players if they can't justify spinning by now... they are not opening not because of lack of snow/skiable terrain... they are not open because they think no one will show up... they are probably right, unfortunately.... what serious skier is gonna buy property and make a major investment to the tune of a million bucks in some cases, at a place that can't justify opening by now...just my 2 cents
 
Saddleback and Burke are not on equal footing any more. Burke is operated by Ginn which is a big bucks resort company for the upper crust and well to do. These folks aren't buying just because of the skiing, they are buying it because of the Ginn brand. Ginn has national advertising on those housing sales as well. When people go play 18 holes down in Florida, they are reading literature about how Burke is the best place for them to buy slope side in the East. Burke is about families having a vacation home both in Florida on the links and in New England for not only skiing, but a four season get away in a quaint New England town. Ginn brings the sales of property at Burke into another league, and that league is not ours. And there are condos are Burke that are still not too expensive. The housing units to be built will certainly be ritzy though, I am sure.

Also, the notion that Burke is "way too far" is not true. At just under three hours from Boston, it is actually closer than most other Vermont resorts to the Boston metro region. Saddleback on the other hand does not benefit from all highway and the frost heaves suck adding to an already long journey. Burke is much more viable than Saddleback. Burke only has to overcome misconceptions about distance whereas Saddleback has to deal with reality.
 
i'll conceed that burke and sb may not be exactly on the same footing...but i don;t the the difference is as significant as you think... i just htink that if someone has a million bucks to spend, and the choice is stowe and it's " expansion " or burke and it's " expansion " i think people are going to go to stowe...it's a superior hill in terms of a couple of factors , but one thing for sure is the place is gonna spin a lot longer season that burke seems to...the drive to burke and stowe from boston is the same.. i think the drive to pretty much any vt hill from boston is the same except maybe jay and even that is not really that much more...just call it 3 1/2 on average... if burke is 15 min closer ok fine... again if i was sitting on pile of cash like that, i go the extra 15 min in the car to get stowes longer season in winter and pretty much the same summer season/activities...i think that development at burke is going to be a massive failure...i certainly hope it is not...but that's just what i think
 
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