Silverton got its 40 year permit.

The Southwest is the region most skewed to favor late season skiing. The light and dry snow in modest quantities takes a long time to accumulate a sufficient base, yet that snow combined with high altitude and north exposure preserves extremely well.

Crested Butte and Taos are the most conspicuous examples where it's just dumb to advance book for December. Over the long term, an average of only 50% of Taos' terrain is skiable at Christmas (and we know which half won't be), and CB's North Face is open at New Year's only 15% of the time. Watch Snowmass reports for a few years and you'll see that Hanging Valley/Cirque usually don't open until mid to late January. Gold Hill at Telluride has only been recently been lift served, but I suspect its track record will prove similar. Purgatory is a more intermediate pitched mountain and needs less coverage than the examples above. Silverton's low skier density and slightly higher snowfall make December more promising than most of these places, but it's still speculative.

When I was in Aspen/Telluride/Silverton in late March 2004 there had been a record heat wave of 3 weeks duration. Yet 95% of terrain was skiable, and it was enjoyable if you chose your runs wisely by exposure/time of day. If you go to any of these places in the wrong December, you will be skiing man-made groomers and looking at dirt/rocks elsewhere. Only at Wolf Creek are the odds favorable, and even there it's not covered at Christmas in 10% of seasons.

Most of the above advice does not apply to option_ride, because he lives within driving distance and can choose to ski these places only in the better Decembers.
 
Crested Butte and Taos are the most conspicuous examples where it's just dumb to advance book for December. Over the long term, an average of only 50% of Taos' terrain is skiable at Christmas (and we know which half won't be)
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I agree Toas never has snow! For the first few years I lived here it seemed like winter was from dec to dec? I also wouldn't advance book, but I would be looking for last minute deals if the snow arives! :D
 
Tony Crocker":3i0kjawa said:
Gold Hill at Telluride has only been recently been lift served, but I suspect its track record will prove similar.

When I was in Aspen/Telluride/Silverton in late March 2004 there had been a record heat wave of 3 weeks duration. Yet 95% of terrain was skiable, and it was enjoyable if you chose your runs wisely by exposure/time of day. If you go to any of these places in the wrong December, you will be skiing man-made groomers and looking at dirt/rocks elsewhere. .
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I have skied Telluride every Christmas from 1992 to the present, so I am very aware of what is/or is not typical. Overall, Christmas is stronger at Telluride than most of its counterparts and they will even take out local advertising campaigns to prove it early season.

My experience has been the following:

If Telluride reports more than a 35-40" base, the entire mountain will be open (or 95%+). It's not perfect, but skis with about the same rock damage as bases at Squaw or Whistler at 60-70".

Why? Most of Telluride'expert runs are quite high (10,500 - 12,500), face north/northwest and get some blow in -- also Prospect Bowl/Gold Hill get about 25-50% more than reported at mid mountain or top of Chair 6/9. Telluride has no crowds until Xmas which allows the bases to build -- perhaps even more than Crested Butte, Taos and definitely Aspen. Also, many storms come from the NW that time of year -- Telluride is on the NW exposure of the San Juans and gets more snow snow than anyone else from those(however, storms from south dump on Wolf Creek/Silverton -- Tride gets about 50% of those totals).

The chair 9 runs (Plunge, Spiral Stairs, Mammoth, Bushwacker) can open easily on those bases -- north exposure/altitude/blow in. Only minor rocks on Spiral Stairs, others fine. The chair 6 runs (all except Apex) can open with great skiing. Gold Hill is trickier -- depends how the winds have been blowing. However, the gullies always fill in...not the ridges. The Prospect Bowl/Bald Mt hike terrain can open with nice conditions on those bases. Finally, chair 7 -- coonksin and milk run (with snownaking) are always open by Xmas with decent snow.

The only year that this did not apply was 1999-2000 when Telluride had only an 18" base at Christmas. And I think 2000-01 was a little weak. Otherwise, everything has been available at Xmas. What is debatable is whether the late 90s/early 00s were an anomaly or a new norm. Hopefully, the former.

If groomers are they plate-de-jour, Telluride's advanced groomers are some of the best -- Plunge, Bushwacker, Lookout, Coonskin. They:
a.) are groomed every day or every other day,
b.) drop between 1700-2500 vert feet
c.) are really steep and
d.) the crowds do not beat them up as much. Skiing is good to at least 1-2pm.
These runs are unique for their steepness, vertical and the fact they are groomed. Few (if none) mountains anywhere match the steep crusing at Telluride.

Frankly, I would rather be in Telluride than crowded, inconsistent Tahoe in December.
 
The above post is the type of local info, observed over a long period of time, that is very useful. From afar I can only observe reported "percents of area open" and read eyewitness ski reports. I drew my conclusions about western Colorado fairly early on, and have never set foot on any of these places earlier than President's week.

Telluride's chair 9 is somewhat unusual for advanced terrain in that it is long and consistent rather than the typical nosebleed-steep at the top with decreasing pitch as you go lower. Combined with perfect altitude/exposure I can believe those runs will ski well on 35-40 inches. And that is the typical base depth at most Colorado areas over Christmas.

The other areas are different. Aspen says they can't open Hanging Valley/Cirque at Snowmass until the base reaches 50 inches. I would expect similar for Steeplechase/Olympic/Temerity at Highlands. I was criticized once here at FTO for claiming that skiing at Taos must be good since the base was 80 inches by a skier who had trashed his skis there that same week. And that "open at New Year's in 15% of seasons" statistic for Crested Butte's North Face speaks for itself.

Tahoe's issues at Christmas are usually traffic/crowd related. If you're going to ski that week it makes sense to go somewhere remote like Telluride. I will edit one of my Inside Tracks articles later in response to this post.
 
I often try to daytrip/overnight trip from Telluride around Xmas/New Years. (Telluride is great, but it's terrain is limited).

Here is my experience again: for early season SW Colorado/ northern NM.

Crested Butte -- I absolutely love the place (town and skiing). Love it! But its North Face is NEVER open at Xmas/New Years. Never. Maybe last year? (I went to Europe). I would drive all night to ski it, but it never happens and it just does not ski well with limited terrain. There is no steep cruising. Just rocky bumps in a limited area. Effectively, I never think of Crested Butte anymore -- until Feb/March. Sad.

Taos -- I think they simpy inflate their snow numbers. I honestly do not know what section of the mountain they measure their bases at. In 2002/03, I went down there when T-ride was reporting 30-35" and Taos was reporting 50-55" and the skiing was worse. The West Basin area was really skiing poorly -- but he Ridge (east side) had good bases. (I would be really scared skiing here with less than 40" reported).

Wolf Creek -- It's a snow magnet. Frankly, I think they get the best snow anywhere -- it's high, perhaps lowest moisture content on the planet, uncrowded. Alta/Snowbird and Wolf Creek -- really great!. The terrain is just a little too limited. After 10 great turns - now what? Love it, but....everything ends a bit premature.

Aspen Mountain -- it's OK/pretty good at 35-40". Lower areas, of course, do not ski well -- but the top 2/3 are quite good.

Snowmass -- Same with Crested Butte. Expert never open at Christmas.

Highlands -- the top steep stuff skis pretty well -- especially Steeplechase, but Olympic less so. Winds come from W/NW and just dump snow over the ridge and load the top parts of steeplechase. Unload otherparts.

Silverton -- I am not sure about them. They inflate totals as well (Frankly, and I do not want to say this -- Silverton will report huge totals because it gets them on the front page from a meteorological perspective...think Colorado blizzard: Silverton 38" -- think cheap marketing when you have no budget). They do not get as much as Wolf Creek, but oftentimes they report more. Time will tell. Overall, my December experiences have been very worthwhile.
 
Nice analyses above. I do think Taos's main problem is topography. It's as rugged as Squaw or Snowbird with far less snow.

I decided to look up Crested Butte in detail. 1996-97 it had 102 inches December snowfall. That would have been the only really good Christmas. In November 1991 it got a 5-foot dump and opened the North Face for Thanksgiving. It would have remained open at Christmas but been sketchy since December snowfall was only 15 inches. At New Year's 2004 I reported that "some of CB's North Face opened last weekend." It has not been open on even a limited basis at any of the other New Years since the North Face Poma was installed. My data goes way back, and 1978-79 and 1983-84 would have been good years like 1996-97 had the North Face been in-bounds. So I get 3 good Christmases out of 38 years, and possibly another 5 or so when a limited amount of the steep terrain would have been open.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Silverton snow reporting. My source at Colorado Avalanche Information Center said the same as you: not as much as Wolf Creek. I have 161 months of data from nearby Red Mt. Pass and its November-to-April average is 289 inches. That's why I know the past 2 seasons have been very good at Silverton. Red Mt. Pass had 372 inches in 2003-04 and 364 inches in 2004-05. So I thought Silverton's reported 409 for 2003-04 was credible but I'm not so sure about the 540 they reported for last year.

Wolf Creek's November through March snowfall (they close early in April and usually don't count then) was 383 inches in 2003-04 and 460 in 2004-05. Last year Wolf Creek did keep counting as it was reopening some Saturdays and finally ended up with 536 inches. I agree that of the places that get a lot of snow, Wolf Creek's is the driest.
 
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