Socal This weekend?

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socal

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Anyone headed out? Forecast looks incredible. I tried to trim down their statement but it's pretty much all relevant. Anyone wanna carpool? I drive a RWD car but am considering renting an SUV for the weekend if I can't find a ride up the mountain.

ON FRIDAY...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF STORMS WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN REACHING LOS
ANGELES COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...AND ONE INCH TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT COULD DROP BELOW 4000
FEET BY LATE FRIDAY... IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET...AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS STORM...SO
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING EITHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS...THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET VERY PRECISE WITH
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...BUT IF COMPUTER MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS
WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. IF SOUTH FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACORSS THE SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES. OVER TWO FEET OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...A STORM SYSTEM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WOULD BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...POSSIBLY EVEN TO
NON BURN AREAS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ITS
TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN ADDITIONAL AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION AFTER MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...SO SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT IT ARE NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
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There are some variations on the weather predictions, but most call for that big storm in the middle of the 3-day weekend. So Monday looks promising as a powder day. I may also ski Saturday in advance of the storm. But being local, I'll make the calls at the last minute depending how the weather goes and what's open.
 
I just booked an SUV for Sat-Mon. I'm thinking of just heading to Mt. Waterman to avoid the crowds. Baldy+new snow+weekend+presidents weekend=disaster waiting to happen. At least from my experience. I'll probably just ski Sunday and Monday so if Waterman is a mess Sunday I'll plan on being at Baldy by like 8am to avoid the hours of waiting to buy a ticket (after I go to Sports Chalet for a ticket on Sunday).
 
I would be at Baldy before 8AM. Mt. Waterman has considerably more road that needs to be plowed to reach the area. If the snow is substantial and as low as 4,000 feet, they have to plow 20 miles of the Angeles Crest Hwy and the odds of Waterman being open first day after a storm like that are very low IMHO.

This is one area where Baldy has improved markedly since the 1980's. They usually keep that road open. But when the lifts start spinning is anybody's guess.
 
Tony Crocker":f1704ycm said:
I would be at Baldy before 8AM. Mt. Waterman has considerably more road that needs to be plowed to reach the area. If the snow is substantial and as low as 4,000 feet, they have to plow 20 miles of the Angeles Crest Hwy and the odds of Waterman being open first day after a storm like that are very low IMHO.

This is one area where Baldy has improved markedly since the 1980's. They usually keep that road open. But when the lifts start spinning is anybody's guess.
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Good points, I'll check the road status at Mt. Waterman at like 6am on Sunday/Monday and plan accordingly. I'm leaving from Brentwood so it's about 65 miles to either place, Baldy being shorter since it's 90% freeway. PM me if you're headed up there and don't mind me tagging along.
 
LOL, I've been sitting here pondering just this dilemma for the past couple days. My only day to ride this weekend looks like Monday, which thankfully looks like the optimal day to get at it.

One the one hand, Baldy is Baldy. But it may be crowded, it may be a $h-tshow waiting for lifts to open.

Waterman would be epic and surely uncrowded. But will they plow the 2? And could I really forgive myself, great as a day like this at Waterman would be, for giving up all the extra terrain at Baldy?

I definitely understand what Tony has mentioned before- it's going to be hard going for Waterman from here on (esp in this economy) when like minded people will usually choose Baldy in these spots.

The roads will decide for me Monday morning.
 
baldyskier":2sv43j8g said:
I'm leaning toward skiing Baldy on Monday
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Me too, figure crazy crowded and a zoo is better than a closed road. But, I'm not 100% one way or another. I think the best bet is to get up really early and check the road status. But I'll be at Waterman on Sunday assuming the road is open.
 
A 33-year-old man was treated for frostbite Thursday after he got stuck in the Mt. Baldy ski area and spent the night in below-freezing conditions......Rescuers reached Triche at 7 a.m. at the 10,000-foot level, according to the release.
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Another clueless report from the mainstream media. Only the peak of Baldy is at 10,000. It's an hour+ hike from the top of chair 4. Nothing within area boundaries is above 8,600.
 
Just a heads up to all- not that you need it- was poking around TGR and found the following post.

http://tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=150615

srface hoar

" Small Slide on Telegraph Peak - Mt Baldy side country
New to TGR and wanted to say hello and give a little info about the S CA side country. I am sure I will get the usual welcome here. Just to let the maggots in S. CA know with all the recent new snow the Avi danger is obviously increased to Moderate to Considerable. There was a small slab that kicked loose off of Telegraph Peak on Sunday and a couple of point releases inbounds at Baldy. Crown appeared to be 1-2 ft deep and ran on the old surface. I will be digging some pits in the Waterman/Avalanche area this weekend and will post the results. Just a heads up for everyone going out."
 
I've been thinking about the avalanche danger for the weekend and am a bit concerned. I was at Baldy last Jan (think it was the 30th) the day where one (or maybe 2) people were killed in an avalanche at Mt. High. While waiting for Baldy to open a ski patrol was able to start a small avalanche that ran to the area just before the parking lot.

With all that said, I'd think that this storm would be pretty dangerous; lots of new snow from the past 7-10 days and from what it appears the snow won't start out as heavy as usual, with snow levels around 5000k ft. I'll be wearing a beacon, but to be honest I wonder if there will be anyone to find me if I do get into trouble (talking Mt. Waterman more so to this point). And as far as I know there isn't any avalanche control work done in Socal, but I could be wrong about that.

Am I over thinking this?
 
Baldy HAS to do avalanche control, particularly on chair 1. There have been several occasions where they get Thunder open but do not allow people to ski down Chair 1 due to stability issues.

Latest forecasts are pushing the second storm into Sunday night/Monday daytime. Greatly increases chances of restricted lifts/terrain at Baldy Monday.
 
Tony Crocker":2pk6my3v said:
Baldy HAS to do avalanche control, particularly on chair 1. There have been several occasions where they get Thunder open but do not allow people to ski down Chair 1 due to stability issues.

Latest forecasts are pushing the second storm into Sunday night/Monday daytime. Greatly increases chances of restricted lifts/terrain at Baldy Monday.
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Wonder what Waterman's control is like?

And sitting at my desk all day I'm checking the weather pretty frequently and saw that the storms looking to come in about 12hrs later than they expected yesterday. I've changed my plans to most likely skiing at Waterman tomorrow. Even though they're open today I can't imagine it'll get all that tracked out so Saturday should be a good one, with a bit of a window for decent weather ahead of the next big storm. The rest of the weekend will depend on what the NWS has to say Sat/Sat night.

Tony, any interest in heading up to Waterman tomorrow? Like you I'm a numbers guy and your posts and site have been really helpful, would be cool to make some turns together, especially in knee deep powder.
 
Tonight's storm is expected to be only 6 inches or so. The second one should be 1-2 feet. I was considering Waterman for tomorrow and Baldy after the larger storm.
 
Yeah, NWS LA has really backed off their forecast in their latest updates, this front moved through too quickly and the one that was supposed to happen on Sunday seems to be moved into Sunday night/Monday and I've noticed they've dropped the 2-5 inches of water language from the discussion.

What time are you planning on being at Waterman tomorrow, if you go? I'll try and catch up with you at the bottom of Chair 1.
 
My guess is given the limited # of people that will actually go to Waterman today that Saturday will be better since it could be rough storm to be skiing in, and there's a shot there won't be any new snow from Sat until they open on Monday. If that was the case,. it seems like Tuesday would be ideal, but like most I'll be working. Also, Saturday should be partly sunny and new snow, always fun.
 
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