Special Meteorological PSA

[Geoff]

My experience with Steve Wright and his snow reporting accuracy at Killington:

The reported numbers were always accurate on the snow phone and web site. You'd get a positive spin on things and lots of hype about upcoming storms but if Killington reported 9", they really did get 9" outside the admin building. The resort gets so much traffic that a midweek storm gets tracked down to impervious base by the weekend. That leaves a lot of people with the false impression that Killington lies about their reports.

In this thread, I guess Steve is being called to task for not calling out the awful weather forecast for Friday. I doubt there was a resort in the Northeast that behaved differently.

 

[steve@jpr]

Morning Geoff.

This thread actually has us being called out for decreasing our season-long natural snow totals. Our site was pulling snow from a period prior to opening and, this week, we pulled those numbers out. Folks were wondering why.

My experience with Steve Wright and his snow reporting accuracy at Killington:

The reported numbers were always accurate on the snow phone and web site. You'd get a positive spin on things and lots of hype about upcoming storms but if Killington reported 9", they really did get 9" outside the admin building. The resort gets so much traffic that a midweek storm gets tracked down to impervious base by the weekend. That leaves a lot of people with the false impression that Killington lies about their reports.

In this thread, I guess Steve is being called to task for not calling out the awful weather forecast for Friday. I doubt there was a resort in the Northeast that behaved differently.

 

[riverc0il]

Morning Geoff.

This thread actually has us being called out for decreasing our season-long natural snow totals. Our site was pulling snow from a period prior to opening and, this week, we pulled those numbers out. Folks were wondering why.

LOL. Geoff, you replied in the wrong forum calling Jay out. :lol: Hard to remember which one is what since there are a few of them. Here is my take on that, no one is calling a lot of other resorts out, not because they are not wearing rosy glasses but rather because most people don't care and there is reason for people to watch Jay reports carefully and that is because people really enjoy skiing there, especially when things are good.

 

[ono]

the truthiness of adjusting snowfall totals for the season...

snowfall from november was removed, as it melted prior to opening day. correct? why'd it take two months- until after the busy, and profitible, holiday period- to figure this out?

i must say, jay had a lot of snow on january 2nd. smuggs had a lot of snow on december 30th. snowpack-wise, i couldn't see much of a difference. i concede, there's no empirical basis for my observations, and i would suspect jay may have a deeper base. but seasonal totals- with jay purporting almost 50% more snow than smuggs during the same period, i begin to ask questions.

that said, and without being any more incendiary, i find the timing or span of time with which this occurred suspect.

i ask my self why, jay, why?

 

[Patrick]

Not sure how much of that pre-season snow melted prior to first day. However the changing of numbers more than 1 month in the season was sure going to raise some questions. Especially if it's Jay numbers, as they are on the top by a good margin year in and year out (rightfully or not).

I personally have no knowledge of when Jay or/and Smuggs starts counting their snow, but if you want a fair comparison, it would be good to know when the counter starts counting. :roll:

I would be interesting to hear the snowcounter "par excellence" opinion on this, although some of it was probably discussed last year.

 

[Skidog]

My suggestion, Hogback, might be to head all the way North before offering up the wherefore and why on resort accumulation vagaries.

wow so wait...am I understanding this correctly??? One should drive all the way to Jay to find out if the snow totals are really right??? that could be a LONG drive for some to find out it isnt exactly what the website says.

A lot of east coasters rely on ACCURATE reporting from the resorts website to make their travel and "vacation" arrangements. Would be a shame to ask someone to possibly drive 6 hours to find out it isnt whats reported...

M

 

[steve@jpr]

What my comment was intended to impart is that, in the case of calling out all of Northern VT having 'pretty much the same amount of accumulated snow' it might be worth taking a look before making that assumption.

My suggestion, Hogback, might be to head all the way North before offering up the wherefore and why on resort accumulation vagaries.

wow so wait...am I understanding this correctly??? One should drive all the way to Jay to find out if the snow totals are really right??? that could be a LONG drive for some to find out it isnt exactly what the website says.

A lot of east coasters rely on ACCURATE reporting from the resorts website to make their travel and "vacation" arrangements. Would be a shame to ask someone to possibly drive 6 hours to find out it isnt whats reported...

M

 

[steve@jpr]

Afternoon Ono. Truthiness, yes.

Asking questions is good, we welcome questions. We f'd up the numbers (tho a case could easily be made for having us keep those numbers in as the snow that fell during the 14-16th was still kicking around when we opened thereafter), and we fixed it. If you're of the thought that it's more Machiavellian drama play afoot, well, you are certainly entitled to your thoughts and I'll wish you well wherever you end up this year.

the truthiness of adjusting snowfall totals for the season...

snowfall from november was removed, as it melted prior to opening day. correct? why'd it take two months- until after the busy, and profitible, holiday period- to figure this out?

i must say, jay had a lot of snow on january 2nd. smuggs had a lot of snow on december 30th. snowpack-wise, i couldn't see much of a difference. i concede, there's no empirical basis for my observations, and i would suspect jay may have a deeper base. but seasonal totals- with jay purporting almost 50% more snow than smuggs during the same period, i begin to ask questions.

that said, and without being any more incendiary, i find the timing or span of time with which this occurred suspect.

i ask my self why, jay, why?

 

[powderfreak]

Morning Geoff.

This thread actually has us being called out for decreasing our season-long natural snow totals. Our site was pulling snow from a period prior to opening and, this week, we pulled those numbers out. Folks were wondering why.

Steve et al...as a fill-in snow reporter at Stowe and resident meteorologist, I fully support and commend what Jay has done here. Last year we erased the 34 inches that fell in October because it was gone when the season started. Our rule is to count whatever is left on the ground when we open (at Stowe) and this year we got rid of some early November snowfall but did keep maybe 10" that fell before opening. At first I didn't agree and wanted to get rid of it, but the usual Stowe reporter, Tom H., persuaded me because those inches were still on the ground when we opened. I skinned up the Friday before opening day in a snowstorm with Jumpin Jimmy and I had to agree that the snow that fell then should be counted.

Even with my ties to Stowe, my personal view from a weather and forecasting standpoint is that Jay gets 15% more snow than the Stowe/Smuggs region...and that area gets 15% more snow than the SB/MRG area. Sure, it can be very different and every storm is different, but climatologically in the northeast snowfall increases with latitude. Jay's in a favorable upslope and wrap around location and likely has very slightly higher ratios. With a nor'easter up in the Maritimes, deeper moisture will be available longer at Jay than further south. Now, I like to consider myself a middle ground between Roemer and North Winds Tony and the 15% rule usually works out.

Steve knows what he's doing, guys. This is still a business and if you're going to be brutally honest by bluntly saying the "skiing sucks," you might as well just not open for the day (as an economics/business person, that's the mentality when you say your product is horrible). But that's why I forecast because I try to give an accurate portrayal of what you should expect. You need to read a third-party opinion rather than a ski areas website...don't get me wrong, I agree that its misleading when we say 2" of new snow, yet that fell before the pouring rain...but again, it is a business with the goal of increasing market share.

This is all my opinion but hopefully it makes sense...if not, I'd love to hear why not. I'm perfectly open to talking about this and it seems Steve is, too.

-Scott

 

[Tony Crocker]

With most of my snow analysis coming from the West, what I want is consistency, everyone starting as of November 1. I count October snow only if it's enough to get someone running lifts, as in the East in October 2005 or Utah/Sierra in October 2004.

If we're going to say November 5th's snow was washed away and we shouldn't count it in a season total, does that mean we shouldn't count half of December's snow because last week's thaw and rain took it out? Not in my opinion. Those December powder days are still valid even if you have to start the season over completely now.

 

[riverc0il]

First off, congratulations to Jay Peak for doing the right thing, regardless of timing. I think many other mountains might have said "Oops, we have a problem here. But if we change it, people will notice and ask questions. We might look bad. No news is good news, right? Maybe we should just leave it alone, it looks better with the incorrect numbers any ways." So all is well. If people were booking their vacations based off of Jay's total snow calculator, no harm done because they got what they were looking for regardless...

If we're going to say November 5th's snow was washed away and we shouldn't count it in a season total, does that mean we shouldn't count half of December's snow because last week's thaw and rain took it out? Not in my opinion.

The difference is major and the two are not comparable in the slightest. Snow that falls and gets washed away completely before the season begins does not contribute anything to either base or skiing conditions. It was there, but long gone before lifts started turning. Snow that fell in late Novermber and December was there, skied, built base, and contributed to good conditions. It did get washed away, but how much? Who knows, who cares. It did the job.

That raises the question if any snow is left on the ground when the resort opened should it be counted? Yes. If it contributes to the base in any way or improves conditions in any way, count it. Every time it snows leading into the season, the snow calculators should start adding. If the ground returns to green and the snow gets melted out, then reset the calculator and start again, until it sticks and contributes. Just my personal opinion, but I think that is the most accurate measurement from a skier's perspective.

 

[scharny]

If JPR wanted to make $$ off of the snow totals, why would they have changed the numbers BEFORE Martin Luther King Jr. weekend - one of the biggest revenue weekends for ski areas? Just for once, cut the guy some slack. I honestly think Steve(@jpr) has a lot of pluck coming back again and again to discuss the whole Jay snow thing over & over again ad nauseum. From what I see, his participation in this forum is a conscious effort on the part of Jay Peak to let its skier base know that they do listen to what people are saying.

OK now I've vented. Let's enjoy the rest of the winter and pray for snow.:wink:
Eric

the truthiness of adjusting snowfall totals for the season...

snowfall from november was removed, as it melted prior to opening day. correct? why'd it take two months- until after the busy, and profitible, holiday period- to figure this out?

i must say, jay had a lot of snow on january 2nd. smuggs had a lot of snow on december 30th. snowpack-wise, i couldn't see much of a difference. i concede, there's no empirical basis for my observations, and i would suspect jay may have a deeper base. but seasonal totals- with jay purporting almost 50% more snow than smuggs during the same period, i begin to ask questions.

that said, and without being any more incendiary, i find the timing or span of time with which this occurred suspect.

i ask my self why, jay, why?

 

[Tony Crocker]

I see River's point, and in the East very early snow usually is washed away by rain before the lifts start running. But October 2005's snow was washed away completely even though many of you scored powder at Killington and Wildcat during 2 days of lift service. So do you count that? And I suspect there are numerous trails in the East that lost all of their snow last week.

In the West this method is not acceptable IMHO. Jackson Hole and Bridger Bowl (for example) do not start lifts until the first Saturday in December no matter how much snow there is due to remote location. I think we really want to know how much snow fell in November in order to compare to other areas, not just a December 7 base depth.

 

[riverc0il]

I see River's point, and in the East very early snow usually is washed away by rain before the lifts start running. But October 2005's snow was washed away completely even though many of you scored powder at Killington and Wildcat during 2 days of lift service. So do you count that?

Absolutely. That snow counted towards when lifts were turning. So I think it is fair to include that total.

My perspective on snow totals is not meteorological, but practical. If a tree falls in the woods, does it make a sound? Of course it does, but who cares? If a ski area gets two feet of snow in October but it all washes out before any lifts turn, did it snow? It sure did, but no one buying a lift ticket would care. Just my two cents and I can appreciate statisticians disagreeing. Clearly, it is much harder to be completely objective with this method, and makes comparisons more difficult if various resorts count differently.

 

[Patrick]

But October 2005's snow was washed away completely even though many of you scored powder at Killington and Wildcat during 2 days of lift service.

What did these areas count that year? If Wildcat counted that 3feet and compared with an area that started skiing at late November (Jay?), that would definitely reacted a false impression (because Jay also received some of that snow).

So do you count that? And I suspect there are numerous trails in the East that lost all of their snow last week.

I don't like generalizations, maybe because I'm Canadian. But when my front lawn and backyard still has 8 inches (not taking snowbanks), I can assure you that the local mole hills or the bigger areas in Quebec still have snow on their trails (agree they lost some during this big thaw).

So you can put all Eastern areas in the same boat, the last time I checked the name of this forum section was Eastern North America. :roll: There are over 85 ski areas in Quebec, they must count for something?

BTW, I agree with both Tony and River's point of views. It all depends from what angle you're looking from.

 

[Tony Crocker]

There are over 85 ski areas in Quebec, they must count for something?

The Eastern Forum also includes some southern New England and MASH areas that might have lost all snow cover on many trails. So do they have to start over counting while Quebec adds on to prior totals?

FYI I counted Jay's October 2005. It was demonstrably skiable, and I believe some here on FTO earned some fine turns there.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

The Eastern Forum also includes some southern New England and MASH areas that might have lost all snow cover on many trails.

The MASH area I skied at last night had 100% cover. Not even close to any bare spots... they must have blown tons of snow before the thaw.

 

[Patrick]

FYI I counted Jay's October 2005. It was demonstrably skiable, and I believe some here on FTO earned some fine turns there.

Yes, Jay and Sutton was skied heavily during that week, however did Jay included those numbers in their snowtotals for the year? How about Kmart and Wildcat? Most of that snow was gone when the real season started.

I was just wondering.