Storm Prediction High/Low

[Harvey]

Just for fun... no money. Predict the date of the first significant snow storm for the East Coast.

"Significant Snow Storm" is defined as 12 inches or more of snow on top of the picnic table at the base of any resort on the East Coast.

Great idea for the original post. I gotta admit that while BBD was crystal clear with his definition of significant snowstorm, I blew it.

For some reason I focused on the first sentence in his post. The "first significant snow storm for the East Coast" part.

When you consider that the picnic tables at the base of Jay Peak and Mansfield are included...that makes my call of Dec 15 seem somewhat pessimistic. Tony's numbers bear that out.

I was in my own little fantasy land imagining another 12/20/08 at Gore, and at all the other mortal mountains of the Northeast.

* * *

Just to make it harder to separate out the thread , I'll throw in my two cents on the language.

I like attempting Italian in Italy. You can understand a decent amount of what is being said if you've studied almost any language. Even English. You can guess at some of the words by improvising on the English or French word for the same thing.

And the audiences are very forgiving. I had the good fortune of spend a lot of my time with people who really wanted to understand what I was trying to say. That helps a lot too.

After 3 weeks over there in 2005, I could order coffee convincingly enough to end up with a caffe lungo and not caffe americano. Really they could just be being nice - I mean I was usually buying an Internation Herald Trib at the same time. When I was in France I felt I didn't get the same slack.

 

[riverc0il]

If I don't get at least one foot of fresh before the Solstice, I become grumpy. Or at least, I think I would become grumpy because I think it has snowed at least a foot somewhere in New England before the Solstice every year since I have been taking this activity seriously.

And another year of no grumpy riverc0il!!!

\/

I think this is the early season skiing equivalent of the ground hog seeing his shadow.

 

[Harvey]

"Significant Snow Storm" is defined as 12 inches or more of snow on top of the picnic table at the base of any resort on the East Coast.

You can see from various TRs around that there was some very good skiing to be had.

But I could only find one resort that fit BBDs criteria. Bretton Woods:

If there were others, I couldn't find them.

Good on you Riv!

 

[J.Spin]

"Significant Snow Storm" is defined as 12 inches or more of snow on top of the picnic table at the base of any resort on the East Coast.

You can see from various TRs around that there was some very good skiing to be had.

But I could only find one resort that fit BBDs criteria. Bretton Woods:


If there were others, I couldn't find them.

Based on the image below that Ice referenced in the Vermont Snow Updates thread, Canon may also have fit the criteria, but I'm not sure where that shot was taken with regard to the base area:

I don't think anyone in Vermont had a foot of accumulation at base elevation, but Jay Peak might have been close. The resort reported 7-10 inches at the base, and the official NWS station (which I believe is near base elevation) came in with 7.0 inches.

Here are the storm totals I've seen reported for the Northern Vermont ski resorts, I'll post a summary in the Vermont Snow Updates thread as well:

Jay Peak: 15" - 20" summit (~4,000'), 7" - 10" base
Mt. Mansfield Stake: 23.5" (~3,700')
Stowe: 20" summit (~3,600'), 6" base
Bolton: 10" summit (~3,150'), 6" base
Mad River Glen: 8" - 10"
Sugarbush: 10" summit (~4,000')

-J

 

[Bluebird Day]

don't think anyone in Vermont had a foot of accumulation at base elevation, but Jay Peak might have been close. The resort reported 7-10 inches at the base, and the official NWS station (which I believe is near base elevation) came in with 7.0 inches.

Horseshoe Rules do not apply, but that was close. I am still holding to my December 9th prediction. The 15 day forecast is now playing in my favor. And a little dumb luck too!!! \/

 

[J.Spin]

Horseshoe Rules do not apply, but that was close. I am still holding to my December 9th prediction. The 15 day forecast is now playing in my favor. And a little dumb luck too!!! \/

Don't the Cannon and Bretton Woods accumulations count according to the initial definition?

"Just for fun... no money. Predict the date of the first significant snow storm for the East Coast.
"Significant Snow Storm" is defined as 12 inches or more of snow on top of the picnic table at the base of any resort on the East Coast."

Cannon's snow report (below) does say they had 12-18 inches of snow, with presumably the 12 inches as the accumulation at the base elevation.

-------------------
Last Updated 11/30/09
Projected Opening Day - December 4th!
Snow Received Past 3 days: 12-18 inches

After Saturday's storm left more than a foot of natural snow, colder air has moved in for tonight. Snowmakers were turning on the system this afternoon and we expect to make snow on the mid-mountain into Tuesday morning.
-------------------

Based on their picnic table shot it really looks like there was a foot or more of accumulation:

-J

 

[Bluebird Day]

Cannon's snow report (below) does say they had 12-18 inches of snow, with presumably the 12 inches as the accumulation at the base elevation.

If that picture is evidence of the snow at Cannon, then we have a winner!! But, if not, we may need to have someone drive over there with a ruler and camera... :-D

 

[Patrick]

Cannon's snow report (below) does say they had 12-18 inches of snow, with presumably the 12 inches as the accumulation at the base elevation.

If that picture is evidence of the snow at Cannon, then we have a winner!! But, if not, we may need to have someone drive over there with a ruler and camera... :-D

River posted his TR on his blog, he simply didn't post it here. He need to find an excuse, Saturday was the day.

http://www.thesnowway.com/2009/11/28/ov ... -at-cannon

Jay wasn't bad either (and much closer for me). :mrgreen: I'll try to post a TR later, however it's not going to be tonight (wifey's bday).

 

[Tony Crocker]

If River doesn't post here, I would encourage the easterners to post his URL's like Patrick did this time. The streak lives; who knew November would be harder than October?

 

[Patrick]

The streak lives; who knew November would be harder than October?

Harder work yes, but I was not really scared.

There were some lifts running last weekend and I had highlighted that weekend a long time ago as a ski weekend. Opted for Jay on Saturday, if it was a total bust, I would have headed to Sunday River on Sunday. St-Sauveur wasn't ever a second thought, even if it was way easier to get to.

 

[icelanticskier]

who knew November would be harder than October?

ya, i had 3 days in october, 2 of which were excellent, 1 ok day in november and today at sunday river which was the worst of all of em.

mt washington for better? turns tomorrow.

rog

 

[Bluebird Day]

Did I predict a storm on December 9th at the outset of this thread ...... now for my next prediction......

Bluebird Damus