The big Corona Virus Shutdown

[flyover]

An interesting article about the of cases in the Sun Valley, ID area and also some other resort town mentions. As of yesterday, Blaine Co. has 352 cases.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-des ... the-nation

That is a very interesting article.

The Adventure Journal article it quotes is just as interesting:

As of [March29], there are 13 positive cases of the coronavirus in [Mono County – home to Mammoth Mountain] county of 14,000 residents, a rate of 92 cases per 100,000 people. Neighboring Inyo County, which is more rural, has a rate of 43. Los Angeles shows 20 cases per 100,000 residents.

Other regions in the West with ski resorts also show higher infection rates than more densely populated cities nearby.
As of March 27, Blaine County in Idaho, home of Sun Valley, has 370 cases per 100,000 people, while Ada County, where Boise is located, is showing a rate of 11. Summit County, Utah, where Park City is located, has a rate of 233, while Salt Lake County has 15.27. And Pitkin County in Colorado, where Aspen is located, has a rate of 124 cases; Gunnison County, home of Crested Butte, has 337, while Denver is showing a rate of 36 cases per 100,000 people.

https://www.adventure-journal.com/2020/ ... arly-hard/

 

[berkshireskier]

The best policy to deal with coronavirus is timely and aggressive testing combined with contact tracing, as demonstrated in South Korea and Singapore. Especially informative is the contrast between the provinces of Lombardy and Veneto in Italy: https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronaviru ... ill-it-end

The US is mostly on the Lombardy track. We need those 15 minute Abbott Labs tests to be produced and used in the tens of millions. James' experience is sadly typical in the US; 12 days to get results from his test! Due to the colossal incompetence in US testing we have little choice but to continue the social isolation with its horrendous economic fallout for a longer period of time.

More entertainment for your day, Coronavirus Rhapsody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr_tEdQ ... e=youtu.be

No doubt that extensive and timely testing and contact tracing works if you know that the virus infection is limited to a small geographic region and you can identify and isolate those infected individuals very quickly. The problem we faced in the U.S. is that there were huge numbers of people (some of whom were undoubtedly infected) coming into the U.S. during November and December 2019 and January 2020 and those people then scattered all over the country (and we're a big country. South Korea, for example, is about the size of Connecticut). I saw figures today that almost 750,000 people entered the U.S. during those three months from China (when the virus was active and growing very rapidly there), with about 250,000 of those entering from China being U.S. citizens returning from vacations, business trips, etc. In total, almost 3.4 million people entered the U.S. during those three months, from Asia, Europe, and elsewhere and then they scattered all over the country, potentially bringing the virus to almost every state.
While the U.S. did an admittedly terrible job at the initial testing, I'm somewhat skeptical that even more robust testing in late February and early March would have made much of a difference in the spread of the virus. I think it was simply too late to confine the outbreak at that time. What we needed to do was to cut off almost all travel from China, Europe, etc. at a much earlier point to try to limit the number of infected people entering the U.S. Obviously, there would have been severe political ramifications to such a harsh crackdown.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

There are a LOT of social media posts from 2 weeks ago that haven't aged well at all. Most from the right-wing denialists.

I spent the entire second week of March in Switzerland and came back negative -- it's all a big hoax! :roll:

 

[Sbooker]

@Snowave
That Newyorker piece is an interesting. Thanks.

@jamesdeluxe
You’re a full time New York resident? Devastating numbers and stories coming from your city. Here’s hoping that the situation starts to improve there quickly. Would you care to offer a view - anecdotally of course - what the feeling is there in NY? Are most people obviously alarmed and scared? Here in the suburbs of Brisvegas a lot of people are not taking the situation seriously. I expect our relatively low numbers are fueling that behaviour. Hopefully the very low community transmission here hasn’t created a false sense of security.

 

[Sbooker]

The best policy to deal with coronavirus is timely and aggressive testing combined with contact tracing, as demonstrated in South Korea and Singapore. Especially informative is the contrast between the provinces of Lombardy and Veneto in Italy: https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronaviru ... ill-it-end" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The US is mostly on the Lombardy track. We need those 15 minute Abbott Labs tests to be produced and used in the tens of millions. James' experience is sadly typical in the US; 12 days to get results from his test! Due to the colossal incompetence in US testing we have little choice but to continue the social isolation with its horrendous economic fallout for a longer period of time.

More entertainment for your day, Coronavirus Rhapsody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr_tEdQ ... e=youtu.be" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No doubt that extensive and timely testing and contact tracing works if you know that the virus infection is limited to a small geographic region and you can identify and isolate those infected individuals very quickly. The problem we faced in the U.S. is that there were huge numbers of people (some of whom were undoubtedly infected) coming into the U.S. during November and December 2019 and January 2020 and those people then scattered all over the country (and we're a big country. South Korea, for example, is about the size of Connecticut). I saw figures today that almost 750,000 people entered the U.S. during those three months from China (when the virus was active and growing very rapidly there), with about 250,000 of those entering from China being U.S. citizens returning from vacations, business trips, etc. In total, almost 3.4 million people entered the U.S. during those three months, from Asia, Europe, and elsewhere and then they scattered all over the country, potentially bringing the virus to almost every state.
While the U.S. did an admittedly terrible job at the initial testing, I'm somewhat skeptical that even more robust testing in late February and early March would have made much of a difference in the spread of the virus. I think it was simply too late to confine the outbreak at that time. What we needed to do was to cut off almost all travel from China, Europe, etc. at a much earlier point to try to limit the number of infected people entering the U.S. Obviously, there would have been severe political ramifications to such a harsh crackdown.

Here in Oz we stopped flights from mainland China on January 31. I know we’re political small fry but there was no obvious fallout that I’m aware of.

 

[Tony Crocker]

James is in northern New Jersey now. Case count is high there, but I'm sure NYC is worse. At the time of 9/11 James was in Brooklyn and Liz was in Manhattan.

Oz in general is the opposite of NYC in population density. While low density areas like ski resorts can have serious outbreaks, it should be easier to succeed with social distancing when density is lower.

The testing still needs to be ramped up drastically. After the current restrictions are eased, we will still need contact tracing to suppress the next outbreak.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Yes, I moved from Brooklyn to northern New Jersey in 2004. Only 20km/12 miles from Manhattan as the crow flies; however, a completely different world on a variety of levels, especially during the current crisis.

All of NYC is in lockdown; one friend is a doctor at a major hospital who's posted grim descriptions on Facebook confirming everything we've been reading about how bad it is at healthcare facilities. The most interesting anecdotes are from friends/former colleagues who've done exactly what you're not supposed to do: flee the city for rural/suburban areas (see my earlier post). They report that the fear amongst locals of getting infected by city people is palpable -- one told me a blow-by-blow of employees at a Cape Cod supermarket who realised that she was carpetbagging there and did everything short of throw her out of the store.

This just in on the news -- as the disclaimer at the bottom states, these are likely lowball statistics:

As of Friday night, health officials have confirmed at least:

102,870 total cases in New York State
2,935 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
57,160 cases in New York City, including 1,562 deaths
14,810 people with COVID-19 are currently hospitalized in the state
29,895 cases in New Jersey, with 647 deaths
4,914 cases in Connecticut, with 131 deaths

The above counts are of laboratory-tested and confirmed cases of COVID-19 and should not be mistaken for the actual number of people who have or have had the coronavirus in the region.

 

[Tony Crocker]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ shows 113,704 cases and 3,565 deaths for New York State. The 183 deaths/million compares to 256 in Spain and 254 in Italy. New Jersey is 73, just behind Louisiana at 89. Surprising to me is that the NYC death rate James quotes above is about the same as today's NY state death rate.

It is unfortunate that deaths are probably the most reliable stat. We all know that testing has been poor in the US, and it's also variable by state. California is one of the better states in terms of enacting social distancing relatively early, but it's one of the worst states in terms of testing.

Liz has seen pics from her friends in NYC showing subway trains with most seats filled though not with standing room people.

Florida has been trying to bar incoming New Yorkers for a week at least.

 

[Sbooker]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ shows 113,704 cases and 3,565 deaths for New York State. The 183 deaths/million compares to 256 in Spain and 254 in Italy. New Jersey is 73, just behind Louisiana at 89. Surprising to me is that the NYC death rate James quotes above is about the same as today's NY state death rate.

It is unfortunate that deaths are probably the most reliable stat. We all know that testing has been poor in the US, and it's also variable by state. California is one of the better states in terms of enacting social distancing relatively early, but it's one of the worst states in terms of testing.

Liz has seen pics from her friends in NYC showing subway trains with most seats filled though not with standing room people.

Florida has been trying to bar incoming New Yorkers for a week at least.

State borders are still open for the general public to cross? I guess it would be very difficult to restrict movement in the densely populated areas where the states are quite geographically small - NY, Pennsylvania, Jersey and Delaware etc.
The authorities are taking things really seriously here. Fining people for resting on a park bench in between exercise. (Leaving your home to exercise is allowed. Hanging about in the park is not). Motor cycle riders who take a spin to the local hinterland hills are being fined for ‘leisure’ riding which is apparently riding without the purpose of going to work, shop for food or medical supplies.
Interesting observations. I can’t see US citizens accepting such restrictions of liberty like Aussies do. For example they took all our guns from us after the Port Arthur massacre back in 1996 and we largely said - ok, cool.
The Aussie comedian Jim Jeffries did a great stand up routine on that subject. If you’re looking to kill some time while isolating have a gander at his video. *Warning. Controversial views and frequent bad language.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0rR9IaXH1M0
Part 1 above.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a9UFyNy-rw4
Part 2.

Again sorry for wandering off topic but..........unusual circumstances right now.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Finally this page today tracking COVID-19 by state has per capita stats: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[flyover]

It is unfortunate that deaths are probably the most reliable stat.

Finally this page today tracking COVID-19 by state has per capita stats: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Very interesting to compare Minnesota with Colorado. Colorado reported its first case on March 5. Minnesota reported its first case on March 7.

According to the worldometer stats Tony cites above, as of today, Colorado has had 126 related deaths. Minnesota has had 29. There have been a total of 95 related deaths in the states that surround Colorado. There have been 95 total related deaths in the states with which Minnesota shares a border (I did not include the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Manitoba as the Canadian border is closed, although it was open for much of the early pandemic).

Here's how Minnesota and Colorado compare with respect to population, density and economics (according to wikipedia):

Population:
Minnesota: 5,639,632
Colorado: 5,758,736
Twin Cities Metro: 3,114,035
Denver Metro: 2,932,415

Density
Minnesota: 68/sq mi
Colorado: 52/sq mi
Twin Cities Metro: 514/sq mi
Denver Metro: 351/sq mi

Median Household Income:
Minnesota: $68,388 Colorado: $69,117

Note that Minnesota and the Twin Cities are more densely populated than Colorado and the Denver metro respectively.

So why does Colorado have more than 4 times as many deaths as Minnesota?

 

[Tony Crocker]

I'm guessing Minnesota does not have very many incoming tourists from other states and particularly internationally as Colorado in February/March.

In the article about Vail exporting coronavirus to upper class Mexican tourists, I think it was speculated that the virus arrived in Vail from Italy.

 

[berkshireskier]

I'm guessing Minnesota does not have very many incoming tourists from other states and particularly internationally as Colorado in February/March.

In the article about Vail exporting coronavirus to upper class Mexican tourists, I think it was speculated that the virus arrived in Vail from Italy.

I think Tony is right here. My guess is that the difference in the Covid-19 infection rates between Colorado and Minnesota is due to the much larger number of (potentially) infected people who traveled to Colorado (to ski and do other things) compared to Minnesota during the critical time period.

Our next-door neighbors ("weekenders" who live in NYC) were skiing in Colorado in March and BOTH of them got sick (tested positive) with the Coronavirus.

Somewhat off topic, but the publicly-traded stock of Vail Resorts, Inc. (symbol: "MTN") is UP 9% today. Admittedly, the stock has been massacred but it may be a good time to begin buying some shares.

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/MTN#eyJ ... FydCJ9fX19

 

[Marc_C]

I think Tony is right here. My guess is that the difference in the Covid-19 infection rates between Colorado and Minnesota is due to the much larger number of (potentially) infected people who traveled to Colorado (to ski and do other things) compared to Minnesota during the critical time period.

Exactly.
Blaine = Sun Valley
Summit = Park City / Deer Valley
Eagle = Vail et al

 

[Tony Crocker]

NYC is 1 in 117 residents test positive.

Highest incidence city in LA County is West Hollywood at 1 in 446 residents. LA County overall is 1 in 1,593 residents. But testing rate in California is low.

 

[socal]

The best policy to deal with coronavirus is timely and aggressive testing combined with contact tracing, as demonstrated in South Korea and Singapore.

Singapore just locked the country down for 30 days, they lost the battle. Clearly the response In the USA has been terrible but even a much smaller place with what everyone touted as a model for how to handle couldn’t control it . The answer is that the virus is sneaky by letting people with no symptoms spread infection. The only way back to normalcy is a treatment or vaccine.

FWIW I sat in my hotel room in January at snowbird and was telling people this seemed bad and have followed it since. We stocked up on food and hand sanitizer, and soap by February.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Another Cliff Mass blog today on why we need more and random testing: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... andom.html

 

[berkshireskier]

Another Cliff Mass blog today on why we need more and random testing: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/04/ ... andom.html

Interesting blog post...but (and maybe I'm not thinking about this correctly) I don't fully understand what good randomized testing would do at this point. There are probably millions of people in the US who are currently infected with the virus. It seems to me that the only way to contain the FURTHER spread of the virus (and try to minimize deaths) is to either do a total lockdown of the entire country, and reduce person to person contact as much as possible, to try to limit the spread of the virus until it passes through the already-infected population. The other option (IMHO), If it were possible to efficiently and quickly test all 327 million Americans (assuming the tests are accurate?), would be to try to isolate those people who test positive (good luck with that, unless you arrest all those people and physically separate them from the rest of the population) for the virus and then let the other people go about their normal lives (and hope they don't inadvertently interact with a "carrier"). What is randomized testing going to tell you, at this point in the pandemic? You may be able to extrapolate what percentage of the population is infected but that doesn't really do you any good, in terms of stopping the spread.

I still maintain the only real way to stop such a pandemic (with a highly infectious virus like this one) is for a country to do a total lock-down of its borders as soon as it knows that such a virus exists and may spread. In the case of the US, we should have completely locked down ALL of our borders (no plane flights allowed in, from anywhere; all cruise ships and other boats not allowed to dock at any US port; complete close-down of the borders with Canada and Mexico, etc. Even US citizens abroad should not be allowed back in unless they can affirmatively prove they are not infected. In the case of the coronavirus, we should have done this in early January, at the latest or probably even in December 2019. Even in December, it may have been too late, as tens of thousands of people had already flown into the US from China. Obviously, such a drastic action would be politically impossible in our society but the alternative is that we now face an economic calamity and tens of thousands (and maybe hundreds of thousands of people) will die.

Interesting story on what New Zealand has done to stop the spread of the virus:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ne ... -BB12gstI;

Obviously, they're a small, island nation and can more easily shut off their country from the rest of the world.

 

[tseeb]

So why does Colorado have more than 4 times as many deaths as Minnesota?

It could be that CO already had their peak deaths/day of 22 on 3/31 while MN will not have their peak of 24 until 4/26 if you believe predicted numbers from https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ate-s-peak
For Minnesota's sake, I hope they are wrong as they predict a total of 625 deaths there vs. 302 in Colorado.

Or it could be that CO is not doing well at staying home and social distancing, but I take what snowbrains says with a shaker of salt. See https://snowbrains.com/parks-and-trails ... protocols/

A friend of a friend posted this on Facebook this morning from the Slide side of Mt Rose with the following caption:
"An entire ski resort to ourselves with 18”+ of new snow and about 11 degrees at the start!!
The rule is minimum 6’ radius turns to stay socially distant!"

 

[Tony Crocker]

New Zealand shut its borders on March 19. That's the same day California issued its stay-at-home order. Contact tracing worked in NZ as there had not yet been much community transmission yet, though the NZ internal lockdown was also more stringent than ours.

In the case of the coronavirus, we should have done this in early January, at the latest or probably even in December 2019.

I agree that for the US it might have needed to be that early.

I take what snowbrains says with a shaker of salt.

You should.

Sun Valley, along with all other Vail resorts.....

For Minnesota's sake, I hope they are wrong as they predict a total of 625 deaths there vs. 302 in Colorado.

I'm highly suspicious of that model. It projects 746 total deaths in Louisiana, which has already had 582 deaths.

Snowbrains says Beartooth Basin plans to open May 30:
https://snowbrains.com/beartooth-basin- ... h-america/
Patrick should be all over this, but the US-Canada border would have to reopen.