The Red Flag for Andes 2008 is Removed

[Tony Crocker]

I stand by the general advice to wait until snow is on the ground before booking ski trips to South America, just based upon the extreme volatility of snowfall.

But so far the early news is positive:
172 inches YTD at Portillo, with a 75 inch base
El Colorado is already open. 150cm total snowfall if I read its page right.
Las Lenas claims 220cm up high and making snow near the base.

The APR/MAY number for MEI/La Nina is -.400, a substantial decline in La Nina strength from the -1.586 reading just 2 months prior. At that level the upcoming season in the Andes can be regarded as more neutral than La Nina.

So I no longer see a deterrent to skiing South America this year, though I will not be doing it personally. With above average snow on the ground now it's a reasonable speculation for interested skiers to start making plans for 2008.

 

[skibum4ever]

Thanks, Tony.

I guess it's OK now to book a trip.

I note that several areas are open in Chile or will be open by 6/14.

Nothing yet open in Argentina.

 

[Patrick]

This is second hand for TGR...everything seems going great EXCEPT Bariloche where it's really bad.

All my options are still open.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Since Bariloche averages 60 inches at the base and 120 mid-mountain, I'd rarely expect it to be any good in early July. Remember that Bariloche had a huge season last year, not typical.

On a more pleasant note for South America La Nina is now history. MEI for MAY/JUN was posted rectently as +.050. That's as neutral as it gets. If it keeps moving as fast as the past 3 months we'll be well into El Nino territory by our winter. That's not a prediction. La Nina/El Nino tends to persist in the medium term; that's why it's a useful tool at the start of a ski season. But every once in a while you get an abrupt move like the past 3 months.

I would advise Patrick to just put in a week (that would be 8/30-9/6 for streak purposes) in Las Lenas this time.

 

[Patrick]

I would advise Patrick to just put in a week (that would be 8/30-9/6 for streak purposes) in Las Lenas this time.

All my South American options are still open. That would included Las Lenas or a return to Termas and beyond. Well see.

 

[Patrick]

Some of these numbers would seem suspect...anyway.

Numbers for base depth from OntheSnow. Listed North to South (not 100% sure for Argentina)

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 0 - 51 cm
Portillo: 149 - 169 cm
La Parva: 185 - 300 cm
El Colorado: 80 - 120 cm
Valle Nevado: 70 - 70 cm
Termas de Chillan: 15 - 80 cm
Villarrica/Pucon: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm


Argentina:

Las Lenas: 185 - 371 cm
Caviahue: 60 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 0 - 10 cm
Cerro Catedral: 0 - 40 cm
Cerro Bayo: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
La Hoya: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm

 

[Tony Crocker]

Season snowfall is quoted as 199 inches at Portillo and 107 at La Parva. These places should have decent skiing for skibum4ever's trip starting this week. Barring July crowd issues.

 

[Patrick]

Red Flag is still up in certain places in the Andes. Few or no improvements in base depths.

Numbers for base depth from OntheSnow dated July 11th. Listed North to South (not 100% sure for Argentina)

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 0 - 0 cm
Portillo: 142 - 165 cm
La Parva: 185 - 300 cm
El Colorado: 80 - 120 cm
Valle Nevado: 70 - 70 cm
Termas de Chillan: 15 - 80 cm
Villarrica/Pucon: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm


Argentina:

Las Lenas: 185 - 371 cm
Caviahue: 20 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 0 - 20 cm
Cerro Catedral: 10 - 60 cm
Cerro Bayo: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
La Hoya: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm

 

[Tony Crocker]

Realizing that base depth figures must be taken with a grain of salt, it does seem as if the southern places are lagging. So again I think Patrick should be looking at Las Lenas this time.

 

[Patrick]

So again I think Patrick should be looking at Las Lenas this time.

I think he is, especially that 3 of the 5 potential areas I was looking to visit are still closed and the area with the best depth is Catedral with a small 10-60cm. However there is still over 6 weeks from now to the time I want to go, so I'm keeping my options open.

 

[Patrick]

Numbers for base depth from OntheSnow dated July 14th. Listed North to South (not 100% sure for Argentina)

* change

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 0 - 0 cm
Portillo: 157* - 187 cm* (more)
La Parva: 185 - 300 cm
El Colorado: 80 - 120 cm
Valle Nevado: 80 - 80 cm* (more)
Termas de Chillan: 25* - 70 cm* (more and less)
Villarrica/Pucon: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm


Argentina:

Las Lenas: 185 - 371 cm
Caviahue: 40 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 0 - 34 cm* (more)
Cerro Catedral: 0* - 80 cm* (less and more)
Cerro Bayo: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
La Hoya: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm

 

[Geoff]

Realizing that base depth figures must be taken with a grain of salt, it does seem as if the southern places are lagging. So again I think Patrick should be looking at Las Lenas this time.

Portillo is pretty well known for inflating their snow totals and base depths.

 

[Patrick]

Portillo is pretty well known for inflating their snow totals and base depths.

Not looking or concerned about Portillo's potentially inflated numbers, I'm more concern about the extremely low or lack of numbers elsewhere. Here are the latest (July 16th). Catedral in Bariloche received 10 cm and Pucon is open. Instead of Bariloche and vicinity, I'm working on making alternative plan further north.

Chile:

Ski Arpa: 20 - 20 cm* (more)
Portillo: 152* - 180 cm* (less)
La Parva: 185 - 300 cm
El Colorado: 80 - 120 cm
Valle Nevado: 80 - 80 cm
Termas de Chillan: 20* - 70 cm (less)
Villarrica/Pucon: 20 - 20 cm (open)

Argentina:

Las Lenas: 185 - 371 cm
Caviahue: 30 - 120 cm
Chapelco: 0 - 26 cm* (less)
Cerro Catedral: 0 - 60 cm* (less)
Cerro Bayo: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm
La Hoya: CLOSED 0 - 0 cm

* change

 

[Tony Crocker]

For logistics reasons, I see 3 general South America ski itineraries for the typical 7-10 day trip.
1) The places near Santiago (one of these days Admin will publish my feature based on last September)
2) Las Lenas
3) The southern areas in both Chile and Argentina, with the scenic lake crossing between them. Chillan works as part of extension to either 1) or 3)

Patrick and I are both "new experience" junkies. I went for #2 first as I thought Las Lenas would have the best skiing, and I had just done the Extremely Canadian clinic at Whistler in 2005. Then #1 last year due to convenience tying to my Peru trip.

So I do want to get back for #3 sometime. I think http://www.powderquest.com/ski-south-am ... -tour.aspx would be an interesting way to do that, with a few days at Chillan at the end.

Last year #3 was the way to go due to abundant snow, freakishly so at usually sparse Bariloche. So far this year the weather is opposite. Patrick will love Las Lenas in terms of skiing. I'm sure he's hesitant because it's so remote that it's not easy to do on the cheap. I would also note that the August/September keep-the-streak-alive week is the time that Extremely Canadian is there. While Patrick may have no interest in EC, it is an indication that on average it's the optimal time of the season (balance of weather/snow conditions) for Las Lenas.

 

[Patrick]

For logistics reasons, I see 3 general South America ski itineraries for the typical 7-10 day trip.
1) The places near Santiago (one of these days Admin will publish my feature based on last September)
2) Las Lenas
3) The southern areas in both Chile and Argentina, with the scenic lake crossing between them. Chillan works as part of extension to either 1) or 3)

After researching last year and know, I would say that there is probably 4 or 5 options, but I agree about 3 main options.

Patrick and I are both "new experience" junkies.(...)
So I do want to get back for #3 sometime. I think http://www.powderquest.com/ski-south-am ... -tour.aspx would be an interesting way to do that, with a few days at Chillan at the end.

Powderquest guys we saw in Las Trancas were great, maybe was due that they were originally from Québec. Had a good conversation with them.

Patrick will love Las Lenas in terms of skiing. I'm sure he's hesitant because it's so remote that it's not easy to do on the cheap.

Las Lenas is definitely on the list. Main reason I'm hesitant isn't monetary.

Main reasons:
1) Marte situation. LL is great when it's open and conditions are great, opposite when it' not the case
2) remote with few close options.
3) Keeping best terrain in SA for last, so I don't get disappointed by the rest.
4) Last minutes and flexible lodging options and monetary issues are a distant 4th.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Extremely Canadian's trips are Aug 23-30 and Aug 30 - Sept. 6. On average they have majority winter conditions during their first week and transition to spring in their second. We know it was all spring last year because we were in Chile in a similar time frame. But at least Marte was open all that time with the clear weather. Conditions were similar to Portillo's but of course with the much larger scale of terrain.

Despite EC's touting the Santa Rosa storms (Aug. 30 is the commemorative date for SA's first saint), the data Joe Lammers gave me shows the average snowfall peak in July. So the likelihood of an extended shutdown of Marte in EC's time frame is lower than earlier in the season. Nonetheless it has happened on 2 of their trips, mine included. Purely based upon weather, I would have had 3 sunny days with Marte open vs. the actual only one due to excavation of the lift. A week in Las Lenas with 3 days of Marte is far better than anything else lift serviced in the Southern Hemisphere.

In general Patrick's strategy for the Southern Hemisphere is sound. Defer the decision as long as possible, and make snow conditions the primary factor in where to go.

 

[Patrick]

A week in Las Lenas with 3 days of Marte is far better than anything else lift serviced in the Southern Hemisphere.

I didn't have exact numbers, but I remember seeing TGR's Maggots LL regulars mentioning a .300 to .350 batting average with Marte.

 

[Patrick]

In general Patrick's strategy for the Southern Hemisphere is sound. Defer the decision as long as possible, and make snow conditions the primary factor in where to go.

The problem with this strategy is that relatively priced accomodations at LL seem hard to fine at the last minute. I guess it's probably similar to the Portillo hype where the places attract great to not so great skiers from all over the World. Las Lenas and Portillo are definitely not off the beaten path.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I see a big difference between Portillo and Las Lenas logistics. You can easily stay in Los Andes with a rental car for Portillo, and since Arpa snowcat came into the picture in 2003 there is added incentive to stay down the hill to hit both places. Organized groups like Powderquest are doing that too.

Thus my earlier comments about price and Las Lenas. Even though there is much more lodging than at Portillo, you really do have to stay in the resort as it's so remote. Then there is the matter of getting there. Most end up doing those Saturday flights from B.A. to Malargue, which also may force earlier reserving time than desired. There is an overnight bus that I mentioned in my feature. Patrick might want to look into that.

 

[Patrick]

There is an overnight bus that I mentioned in my feature. Patrick might want to look into that.

I am way ahead on my planning both opinions, especially regarding ski areas and major travel arrangement like A to B or B to F. Uncertain is A to B with a stopover at P. Lodging is where I lack detailed and specific info, it's true that until recently I wasn't looking at Las Lenas, however I was force to look at a Plan B in case I decided against Plan A.

Cheaper alternate lodging options include Los Molles (limited) and Malargue (far, but done as last resort...as resort forces one-week stays à la Portillo (2nd hand info).

Talking about Plan A. I've heard that Catedral in Bariloche might have received 60cm on top today.