Utah Weather

[Marc_C]

Here's yet another of those mid-Jan dry spells/inversions that don't happen on average 'cause average snowfall on each day say they don't:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/55635204-78/pollution-utah-levels-http.html.csp

 

[socal]

Here's yet another of those mid-Jan dry spells/inversions that don't happen on average 'cause average snowfall on each day say they don't:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/55635204-78/pollution-utah-levels-http.html.csp

Cool thing about this "mid-Jan dry spell" is that it's actually happening in the middle of January compared with the last "mid-Jan dry spell" that happened in the beginning. Here's the data we were looking for (I think); wish they had a table of the raw info but you tell me is there really a pattern and if so what is it (serious question). I'm inclined to say early late Dec/early Jan

Here's the source http://cliserv.jql.usu.edu/paper/14306.pdf

 

[Marc_C]

As mentioned earlier, you cannot look at daily averages, as that is exactly what obscures any pattern and why you say there isn't one. You need to compare each period of inversions (inversion -> dry). The huge difficulty in that analysis is that the periods are of variable length and can start and end any time during the month. Us locals are merely saying that the multi-day inversions *tend* to occur and clump *around* 3-7 days into January and *usually* *tend* to change pattern in the last 5-7 days of the month. Yes, that's vague as hell, hence the phrasing "we usually get some dry spells (meaning inversions) in the middle part of the month", with middle being pretty loosely defined. Our local TV news weather readers (only one is actually a meteorologist) say as much.

Your average daily data over a multi year period is not going to show that pattern, so stop trying to use it to say there's no validity in the statement above - it's not going to win your argument.

 

[socal]

So it's not fair to look back at past years inversion events (not dry days, low temps, or weather in Mammoth) to try and either refute or confirm whether your observation is true or not? Isn't your entire argument that you usually get inversions in the middle part of January just based on your recollection of history as opposed to actual history? Again, not saying January doesn't get it's fair share of inversions, but it sure does seem that you would be more accurate in saying the beginning of winter is more prone to inversions as December has more than January.

In conclusion, we need the high pressure to go away so we can go back to ski conversations again.

 

[Marc_C]

I'm using inversion and dry interchangeably - if there's an inversion, it's dry, and while dry doesn't always mean there's an inversion, it does usually mean a parked high, that eventually causes an inversion. And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...

You're looking at the wrong data the wrong way. And you're trying to attach too much importance to what all of us have always maintained - it's a loose, general trend/pattern that we see. :dead horse:

Oh, and.....





...here it comes.....





....the new official FTO signoff.......




STFU, n00b!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted:

 

[EMSC]

n00b

So now >500 posts = a n00b?

When I look at the, you know, actual data, It looks to me like roughly equal and significant chances of practically anytime in Dec or anytime in Jan for an inversion to develop. With some significant but much rarer inversions in Feb (esp 1st half of Feb).

The only factual data you've discussed is that last year and this year stunk for 'mid' Jan snowfall and inversions. I thought you were one of those supposedly logical computer/programming/IT guys. Of course last year and this year have generally stunk for long periods of time and not what I would refer to as 'typical' Rocky Mtn weather patterns in the first place.

Interestingly, I also recall in my 15 years in Colo several other long January dry slots... But I also recall a number of years with no long duration January dry spells. It's one of those things that does occur just often enough that your brain tries hard to make real and definitive.... except for those years when it isn't true and you forget about it (having too much fun to bother remembering it) until the next year when it does happen.

 

[socal]

Oh, and.....





...here it comes.....





....the new official FTO signoff.......




STFU, n00b!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted:

I don't know if that's the FTO sign off so much as yours. Go do a search, you're the only one who says that. I do get a chuckle out of an old man using "hip" language to get the kids off his lawn, but I read TGR daily but don't post there for a reason. Marc, we've met and even skied together, but this isn't TGR and I'm hopeful we keep it that way.

 

[Evren]

It's one of those things that does occur just often enough that your brain tries hard to make real and definitive.... except for those years when it isn't true and you forget about it (having too much fun to bother remembering it) until the next year when it does happen.

Confirmation bias? I'd say recollections of weather history are notoriously vulnerable to fallacies. Ask someone how the weather has been this season/year and the answer will depend on how the weather has been the last two weeks. The people on this board are more attuned to weather events, yes; but still likely to make such mistakes.

And in general, it's gotta be a combination of stats and locals' "feel". My recollection of how many 90 degree days in a summer may be wrong or biased to last two summers but what it feels like to have a 90 degree day in summer in Utah is very different from anywhere else I've lived. And same goes for its storm patterns, winter cold, snow. How it snows much more overnight, only to clear up by morning... with that I'll break into song:

I know it sounds a bit bizarre.
But in Camelot, Camelot,
That's how conditions are.

The rain may never fall till after sundown,
By eight the morning fog must disappear.
In short, there's simply not,
A more congenial spot
for happy everaftering than here
In Camelot.

 

[Marc_C]

Oh, and.....





...here it comes.....





....the new official FTO signoff.......




STFU, n00b!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted:

I don't know if that's the FTO sign off so much as yours. Go do a search, you're the only one who says that. I do get a chuckle out of an old man using "hip" language to get the kids off his lawn, but I read TGR daily but don't post there for a reason. Marc, we've met and even skied together, but this isn't TGR and I'm hopeful we keep it that way.

You need to spend time on rockclimbing.com and Supertopo.com to see the far greater frequency of use that the mere 2 times I've used it here. The other common one (that I don't recall seeing on ski discussions) is "Yer gonna die!"

And if you can't tell that the bit you quoted from me is in deeply negative seriousness territory.......

 

[NeedhamSkier]

In Marc’s defense (well, this is a turnaround) I’m figuring that the sign-off was pretty much tongue-in-cheek and a reference to earlier posts rather than a dig at socal. If so, nicely played – I was searching for the ‘wry smile” emoticon.

I’m not entering into the data discussion, however, to continue my recent policy of contributing absolutely no ski-related content. That's mainly because there's little skiing going on here - 2 inches of wet snow today is about all we’ve got to get excited about, but at least the next few days look a little more promising.

 

[Tony Crocker]

As mentioned earlier, you cannot look at daily averages

MarcC repeating this mantra every time someone posts data refuting his assertion does not make it so. I posted a graph of incidence of Alta no snow days and low snow days (<0.25 inches water) and MarcC continued to drone on about "averages." ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) Now socal has posted a daily chart of the Salt Lake inversions and MarcC once again attacks the "average" straw man. Truly an example of "Don't confuse me with facts. My mind is made up."

I'm using inversion and dry interchangeably - if there's an inversion, it's dry, and while dry doesn't always mean there's an inversion, it does usually mean a parked high, that eventually causes an inversion.

As I mentioned in the original discussion the terms are not interchangeable. I suggested that it was the combination of dry and the midwinter cold that produces the inversions. So it's not a surprise that the frequency of inversions in December in socal's chart is quite similar to January's. I'm sure we all recall the drought December a year ago, where Alta recorded its 3rd lowest snowfall of only 20 inches. I wonder if there was an inversion associated with that dry spell? http://www.deseretnews.com/article/7053 ... tml?pg=all . Socal's chart also shows the incidence of inversion being quite high in early February and significantly lower by the end of the month.

I also previously noted that "no snow days" at Alta were as frequent in March as in January, despite the fact that the inversions are much rarer. Thus the recommendation:

if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts.

is patently false, assuming those visitors are interested in ski area snowfall rather than valley inversions. In fact "the Iron Blosam dry spell" in March has been the source of much amusement to the Utah locals, and its persistence was for a longer stretch of years than the recent mid-January pattern. It even recurred last year, when the entire timeshare week was dry with spring conditions, and then it snowed 39 inches over the following 2 days.

Confirmation bias? I'd say recollections of weather history are notoriously vulnerable to fallacies.

Of course. People are more likely to remember the cold overcast days with pollution in January than the sunny T-shirt days in March.

=D> =D> =D> to socal for hopefully putting the final fork into this topic.

 

[socal]

Oh, and.....





...here it comes.....





....the new official FTO signoff.......




STFU, n00b!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted:

I don't know if that's the FTO sign off so much as yours. Go do a search, you're the only one who says that. I do get a chuckle out of an old man using "hip" language to get the kids off his lawn, but I read TGR daily but don't post there for a reason. Marc, we've met and even skied together, but this isn't TGR and I'm hopeful we keep it that way.

You need to spend time on rockclimbing.com and Supertopo.com to see the far greater frequency of use that the mere 2 times I've used it here. The other common one (that I don't recall seeing on ski discussions) is "Yer gonna die!"

And if you can't tell that the bit you quoted from me is in deeply negative seriousness territory.......

I'm not taking it seriously, just pointing out that whole "noob" schitck is just not a game I'm really into. Just saying, and no response needed....

 

[rsmith]

Here are my take-aways as a Utah destination skier:

1) Avoid, at all costs, staying in the valleys (Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo) during the core winter season (December-February). It's stupid to risk spending your hard-earned winter vacation in smog when the whole point is to experience fresh air and mountain vistas.
2) During the core winter season make your lodging in Park City or near the resorts (Cottonwoods, Sundance, etc.) - above the inversion layer. It's more expensive than in the valleys, but worth every penny.
3) Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo are viable for spring-skiing lodging (March/April) - the inversions are gone, you can actually see the mountains, and the inexpensive lodging is compelling.

socal didn't include a complementary chart showing the PM2.5 levels over the same time period - there are plenty of examples of nasty inversion cycles in December and February (where the inversion goes beyond annoying and actually impacts health)- http://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/h...on/images/large/i1520-0434-25-4-1196-f03.jpeg. Those are odds I personally don't like taking with my vacation time...

 

[Marc_C]

....the new official FTO signoff.......

STFU, n00b!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :twisted:

I don't know if that's the FTO sign off so much as yours. Go do a search, you're the only one who says that.

You need to spend time on rockclimbing.com and Supertopo.com to see the far greater frequency of use that the mere 2 times I've used it here. The other common one (that I don't recall seeing on ski discussions) is "Yer gonna die!"

Rockclimbing.com Google site search counts:
STFU: 27500
stfu, n00b: 8150
stfu, noob: 5970

On Supertopo:
STFU: 2620

Here's a thread devoted to n00b-dom:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2019719

No, I'm very much not "...the only one who says that."

 

[socal]

Rockclimbing.com Google site search counts:
STFU: 27500
stfu, n00b: 8150
stfu, noob: 5970

On Supertopo:
STFU: 2620

Here's a thread devoted to n00b-dom:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2019719

No, I'm very much not "...the only one who says that."

First, "noob" is just internet slang, derogitory sure but not necessarily hostile. What I was referring to was more "STFU NOOB" and I meant do a search on FTO where you are literally the only one to used that phrase. Not sure why i'd care what goes on on a bunch of other boards I don't read or post on. I noted that I read TGR daily but don't post on for a reason, clearly I know that others say that phrase or things of that sort; hell go on New Schoolers; I can't even understand what they're saying there.

My general point was just generally, don't be a dick, I THINK the reason a lot of us are here is because the board tends to be, for lack of a better word, adultlike besides the fact that it's informative.

 

[Evren]

I THINK the reason a lot of us are here is because the board tends to be, for lack of a better word, adultlike besides the fact that it's informative.

I'd say so. Different boards have different atmospheres, something that you'd brush off in another place would be too strong here. Just yesterday, I photoshopped someone's face to a "flaming" picture of Richard Simmons (it turned out real nice, I have to say) and posted that as a response. Something I'd never do here. So no, we are not delicate flowers but here's a corner of the intertubes that's relatively civil... and why not keep it that way?

 

[Admin]

Just yesterday, I photoshopped someone's face to a "flaming" picture of Richard Simmons (it turned out real nice, I have to say) and posted that as a response.

A bit more harsh, albeit far more talented, than what I did last April:

 

[Marc_C]

Not sure why i'd care what goes on on a bunch of other boards I don't read or post on.

And rightfully so. But there's gonna be cross fertilization, esp. in outdoor activities.

BTW, when I chided Bobby D for picking the jalapenos out of the sushi roll the other night, he told me to eff-off. It's apparently a term of endearment.

I noted that I read TGR daily but don't post on for a reason, clearly I know that others say that phrase or things of that sort; hell go on New Schoolers; I can't even understand what they're saying there.

We agree. I can't even manage to read TGR daily, as the flame wars there really seem to be rather serious.

My general point was just generally, don't be a dick, I THINK the reason a lot of us are here is because the board tends to be, for lack of a better word, adultlike besides the fact that it's informative.

How dare you call a bunch of skiers adultlike!! :shock:

 

[baldyskier]

Here are my take-aways as a Utah destination skier:

1) Avoid, at all costs, staying in the valleys (Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo) during the core winter season (December-February). It's stupid to risk spending your hard-earned winter vacation in smog when the whole point is to experience fresh air and mountain vistas.
2) During the core winter season make your lodging in Park City or near the resorts (Cottonwoods, Sundance, etc.) - above the inversion layer. It's more expensive than in the valleys, but worth every penny.
3) Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo are viable for spring-skiing lodging (March/April) - the inversions are gone, you can actually see the mountains, and the inexpensive lodging is compelling.

socal didn't include a complementary chart showing the PM2.5 levels over the same time period - there are plenty of examples of nasty inversion cycles in December and February (where the inversion goes beyond annoying and actually impacts health)- http://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/h...on/images/large/i1520-0434-25-4-1196-f03.jpeg. Those are odds I personally don't like taking with my vacation time...

What elevation do you have to be above to get over the inversion layer, typically?

 

[Marc_C]

What elevation do you have to be above to get over the inversion layer, typically?

About 6000'-7000'. The mouth of LCC is a little over 5K'.