Weekend storm

Tee hee. Teehee. Teeheeheeheehee... <BR> <BR>I'm beside myself with those latest model runs. Actually, I'm beside Telenaut, who's sitting here after we just looked at those graphics. It's gonna be a great weekend!
 
Oh boy. Oh my. Oh my god. <BR> <BR>00z NGM: <BR><A HREF="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//ngm/00/ngm_p48048048_m.shtml" TARGET="_top">http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//ngm/00/ngm_p48048048_m.shtml</A> <BR>By far some of the most precip I've ever seen the NGM print out in a winter storm. Usually as a rule you can double anything the NGM puts out as far as precip goes. <BR> <BR>00z ETA: <BR><A HREF="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p48_048m.gif" TARGET="_top">http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p48_048m.gif</A> <BR>Burlington's now got more precip than Albany...I gotta call my sister who was rubbing it in my face that she would get more snow than me even though I moved to VT...southern NH and northern MA including the Boston suburbs, can you say 40 inches? <BR> <BR>'Chromer's area looks like a two footer is very possible. Blizzard conditions there. Take pictures please. <BR> <BR>So far Central Park, NY has 8 inches at 830pm. I have them down as a storm total of 10-15...I still might verify the 15 inches but its going to be much more than 10. I was looking at my forecast above and I still like the NY cities, but my north country forecast is likely gonna bust big time...along with NH cities. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Took a quick look at Gary Gray's Winter Weather Discussion which is very informal but long winded. Here are some important points: <BR> <BR>"My thinking: I'm having a bit of a tough time with this one. My big concern is that the storm will be slower and stronger than predicted. The reason for this concern is simple... an examination of the 12Z radiosondes shows that almost all of the 00Z models were too weak with the system... by quite a lot in some cases. Moreover, the models were even a bit too weak in their 12Z initializations... every last one of them! I have checked for any special 15Z or 18Z radiosonde launches. There were not any that would help the models out. So, it would be a giant leap of faith to expect the 18Z model runs to be any better.... <BR>Up to the north into PA/N NJ/SE NY/New England, there is much less question mark... heavy snow. The differences in the models are practically academic. That is, in the areas that get bombed in parts of New England, the difference between, say, 15" and 24" is notable, but not enough to really change the impact very much... The impact would be quite significant. There are SOME details to struggle with up north, though. For example, the GFS/RGEM shove the very heavy snow back further into more of NY. I am leaning towards those solutions. Why? Because even if only a GFS/ETA compromise verifies, the snow to liquid ratios back into interior eastern NY may be high enough to crank up the snowfall anyway. <BR>Full discussion and a forecast map at the bottom that is quite conservative in some areas: <BR><A HREF="http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html" TARGET="_top">http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html</A> <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
WOW, <BR> <BR>I had to take a trip to Boston this afternoon and I just got back to find that this could be the one of a decade and I can't friggin ski till January. I am gonna die. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see ragged get at least 40 inches; it is already 17 degrees in concord, which means an absurd fluff factor for New England. Wow this is intense. If it keeps coming like it says this is going to be huge. The good old yard stick might not even measure these amounts of snow. Were going to need Mack trucks to plow out anything and everything. OH BOY <BR> <BR>Porter
 
Yeah... in fact, this would be quite worst if the storm was here... like last week. <BR> <BR>They got 22" of snow at La Réserve on the last storm... do you imagine the virgin turns into the super extreme trails of the mountain with all that powder !!!! But I was on the big granular at MSS for few hours, missing time to go up north. This was tough to take. This week is sad, cause we won't be touched, but it's less hard to take than last week. <BR> <BR>I'm happy for you !!!
 
I posted some snowfall totals above and was going to see how they turned out after the storm.... <BR> <BR>Well lets just say I was too low on snowfall totals from Albany-Boston northward as those areas recieved 2 and 3 times what I predicted and in some cases 4 or 5 times more. I believe I got the Hartford, NYC Central Park and southern areas correct though as most of those areas actually missed the real heavy stuff and only pulled in 12-15 inches. <BR> <BR>Eitherway, if a forecast is gonna bust, that was the way we all wanted it to bust. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
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