mbaydala
New member
Next shot of snow probably coming through Utah sometime next week. Not sold on this system yet but check out the 48 hour total precipitation on the 12Z GFS as of this am. Timing with these sort of systems is always an issue.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_204l.gif
Here is a good link for Wasatch skiers as well. It's pinpoint forecast for Alta for 7 days out, but broken down into 6 hour blocks. Snow accumulations only go out 3 days or so and they only really pinpoint them around 2 days but still interesting.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/index.php?lat=40.6&lon=-111.64
Here is the NAM and the GFS computer model forecasts links.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
The 0Z and the 12Z are the most accurate for longer range forecasts. Click on the "Fine" link under the model you wish to view then pick the Tot Pcpn Loop that you desire. The "Fine" link only shows you precip, it wont show you pressure or temperture, for that you have to view the 4 pannel charts and select a 6 hour time. I usually check the 12 - 24 hour loops on the "fine" link to get a feel for what a storm is going to do over the course of a day. Remember that usually an inch of water equals about a foot of snow when temps are around 30. As temps get coolder snow densities decrease and you end up with more snow. Also the NAM only goes out about 4 days, while the GFS goes out 14 days. When looking in the 7-14 day range don't get to excited about anything unless you see a trend with the models. Meaning, if you see the same storm system show up two, three, or even four days in a row then you know the model is hinting at something, then you can begin to get excited.
It's also helpful if you read your local forecast discussion at 3-5am and 3-5pm for longer range forecasts.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...LC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
It helps to make sense of these computer models. If you remember last night I was talking about that early - mid week storm next week and I put a link up to show the 48 hour total precipitation for next week ending Wed night. Now if you read the NWS forecast discussion this afternoon you can see they have seen this storm for a couple of days on the models so now they are adding it to the forecast discussion. Here is what they are saying "THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...BUMPED POPS ABOVE CLIMO
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK."
Finally, another area which is good to view longer range patterns is the climate prediction center. Here you can see precip and temp forecasts for the next 6-10 and 10-14 periods.
http://www.weather.gov/predictions.php
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_204l.gif
Here is a good link for Wasatch skiers as well. It's pinpoint forecast for Alta for 7 days out, but broken down into 6 hour blocks. Snow accumulations only go out 3 days or so and they only really pinpoint them around 2 days but still interesting.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/index.php?lat=40.6&lon=-111.64
Here is the NAM and the GFS computer model forecasts links.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
The 0Z and the 12Z are the most accurate for longer range forecasts. Click on the "Fine" link under the model you wish to view then pick the Tot Pcpn Loop that you desire. The "Fine" link only shows you precip, it wont show you pressure or temperture, for that you have to view the 4 pannel charts and select a 6 hour time. I usually check the 12 - 24 hour loops on the "fine" link to get a feel for what a storm is going to do over the course of a day. Remember that usually an inch of water equals about a foot of snow when temps are around 30. As temps get coolder snow densities decrease and you end up with more snow. Also the NAM only goes out about 4 days, while the GFS goes out 14 days. When looking in the 7-14 day range don't get to excited about anything unless you see a trend with the models. Meaning, if you see the same storm system show up two, three, or even four days in a row then you know the model is hinting at something, then you can begin to get excited.
It's also helpful if you read your local forecast discussion at 3-5am and 3-5pm for longer range forecasts.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...LC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
It helps to make sense of these computer models. If you remember last night I was talking about that early - mid week storm next week and I put a link up to show the 48 hour total precipitation for next week ending Wed night. Now if you read the NWS forecast discussion this afternoon you can see they have seen this storm for a couple of days on the models so now they are adding it to the forecast discussion. Here is what they are saying "THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...BUMPED POPS ABOVE CLIMO
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK."
Finally, another area which is good to view longer range patterns is the climate prediction center. Here you can see precip and temp forecasts for the next 6-10 and 10-14 periods.
http://www.weather.gov/predictions.php
