Western Weather 2010-14

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That Wasatch Weather Weenies post has a nice explanation about the formation of weak snow layers from early season storms. Unless they are really big, as in 2004.
 
Evren":8ci4kp4q said:
It looks like the first big storm of the season will hit Northern Utah later next week.
Wasatch Weather Weenies first reported on this two days ago:
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2011/09/patience-young-jedi-knight.html
and now I see snow in the extended forecast from NWS. Snow level as low as 6800 feet.
I still have biking to do and hate to see a wet/cold pattern go to waste in early October :-(
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Hate to tute my own horn but I predicted this a day earlier then them :bow:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...97790673.35992.100002386503562&type=1&theater

Storm is still looking good!
 
Snowbird summit cam, 5 Oct 2011:
PeakCam_HiddenPeak-10-5-11.jpg
 
From today's Utah Avalanche Center report:

UAC":sc77qj6r said:
Overnight we had PERFECT weather for near surface faceting; clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures. Just what we needed to jump start the metamorphism of the newest snow into junk just like the rest of our snowpack.
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amd

UAC":sc77qj6r said:
The long term outlook continues to look bad. Looking at the 500mb level of the GFS model I see four more splitting systems to come through Dec 27th. As it looks now, the best we can hope for is minor dustings out of these. Constructive metamorphism will continue!
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Haven't been checking on western conditions lately as we are suffering ...guess the suffering is universal...still getting turns in every week..if only on a few runs..
 
590x393_12222012_0.jpg


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...tern-currently-resembles-the-autobahn-1/59401

From Brett Anderson at AccuWeather:
...I can easily see an onslaught of a half dozen storms and fronts over the next ten days for western BC and the Pacific Northwest coast/mtns. Ski areas across western Canada should see plenty of the white stuff, despite the milder temps over the next 10 days. After that, I am still holding on to the idea that a significant pattern change will take place around the second week of January (partly result of significant stratospheric warming), which may send the very cold over the NW part of North America down into western Canada.
 
For once, not only did we get a storm (finally!) but it was actually under-forecast and over-delivered:

The National Weather Service":xt9mf0zq said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
135 AM MST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...

.A TWO PART STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST PART OF THE STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG
THE WASATCH RANGE. THE SECOND COLDER PORTION OF THE STORM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO ALL OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

UTZ007>009-071200-
/O.NEW.KSLC.WW.Y.0001.120107T0835Z-120107T2300Z/
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODRUFF...RANDOLPH...ALTA...BRIGHTON...
MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY
135 AM MST SAT JAN 7 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM
MST THIS AFTERNOON.


* AFFECTED AREA: THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 12 INCHES.

* TIMING: PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WASATCH
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL REACH THE WESTERN UINTA
RANGE LATE TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HEAVY AT TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: ROADWAYS THROUGH THE WASATCH RANGE WILL BECOME SNOW
PACKED OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN SNOW PACKED OR SLUSHY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FEW
REMAINING OPEN ROADWAYS IN THE UINTA SATURDAY.
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It started sooner than normal, and there's already an inch or so at the house. It's going to be a fun weekend finally. \:D/

But of course, high pressure is set to return this week. :evil: Maybe because this was bigger it will break down the high pressure a bit more?
 
I'm not sure where that Snowbird data is coming from. I don't think 1994 and 1999 were quite as low as this year. But when you're at ~60% of normal snowfall on January 7 it's going to take a spectacular back end of the season to get to 100%. Rather than look at what happened in a couple of low seasons, I would suggest looking at the whole dataset of January and later snowfall and see how many of them had at least (season average - Nov/Dec 2011). Alta's average is 534 inches, Nov/Dec 2011 was 96, so it needs 438 after Jan. 1 to reach average. 6 out of 43 seasons had that much snow after Jan. 1.

Fortunately LCC does not need an average season to have quality skiing. 2006-07 had 71% of normal snow and still had 15 "A" weeks and another 11 "B"s by my scale. That's about equal to an average season at Mammoth or Whistler and well above average for anyplace in Colorado.
 
The Utah Avalanche Center today":2ojoprb0 said:
A high pressure ridge will be the dominant feature through the end of the model run which puts us out toward the end of the month.
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:twisted:
 
Pattern change?

The NWS in SLC in its forecast discussion today wrote:

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH
MODELS HINTING AT A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE EC SHOW MOIST WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE EC IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE CWA
WITH THE JET STREAM CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
GFS MOVED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE EC...GIVING SOME HOPE THAT THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT TO A PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
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Jim, however, isn't so impressed:
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... hange.html
 
If this were to happen, that being the pattern change, I swear to God it better not happen while Sundance is going on. Two, 115 Hour work weeks leaves me no time to ski. At this point who gives a shit, I'll just quit my job!
 
mbaydala":25fqj4n2 said:
If this were to happen, that being the pattern change, I swear to God it better not happen while Sundance is going on. Two, 115 Hour work weeks leaves me no time to ski. At this point who gives a [censored], I'll just quit my job!
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:rotfl:
 
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