Western Weather 2010-14

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socal":1uqmp0pm said:
Amazing how dry the forecast looks for the foreseeable future. I'm even grasping at straws and looking at the GFS long range models and nothing all the way through Wed 1/30. Usually the fantasy periods show something but it's 100% dry.
Wonder if I should change my 1/24-1/28 SLC plans to 2/7-2/11. I can't push it out any further than early Feb. due to my work schedule.
 
baldyskier":358ni667 said:
socal":358ni667 said:
Amazing how dry the forecast looks for the foreseeable future. I'm even grasping at straws and looking at the GFS long range models and nothing all the way through Wed 1/30. Usually the fantasy periods show something but it's 100% dry.
Wonder if I should change my 1/24-1/28 SLC plans to 2/7-2/11. I can't push it out any further than early Feb. due to my work schedule.

if you can change them without a lot of cost/hassle you'd be crazy not to.
 
The 24th is at the outer edge of credible forecasting, but yes it's almost certainly going to be dry for the next week. And in the short term weather tends to persist. So yes you should push the dates if the cost in change fees is not too onerous. As in the last 2 years I'm very glad to be leaving the western U.S. at this time.
 
Tony Crocker":24s4p8hf said:
The 24th is at the outer edge of credible forecasting, but yes it's almost certainly going to be dry for the next week. And in the short term weather tends to persist. So yes you should push the dates if the cost in change fees is not too onerous. As in the last 2 years I'm very glad to be leaving the western U.S. at this time.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but see Accuweather story below:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... xt/4270948

Possibly a long spell of warm and dry weather for most of the Western US. I hope they are wrong.
 
These major dry spells do tend to affect several regions at the same time, like December 2011 last season. The West Coast, the Cottonwood Canyons and most of the Northern Rockies have deep enough bases to stay in full operation, though surface conditions may become difficult in low or sun-exposed areas. It's really bad news for the Colorado areas that had the dry November and only average snow in December. The following areas are likely to close out January with under 100 inches season-to-date snowfall and in many cases half or more of terrain (and essentially everything steep) not yet open: Loveland, A-Basin, Keystone, Copper, Crested Butte and Telluride.
 
Looks like we'll have to endure one more week of this pattern.

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Admin":e9bta9m6 said:
Looks like we'll have to endure one more week of this pattern.

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Life is a Bitch, and then you move to Utah (or to the BC Interior)
 
Looks like my guess that it had to snow in late January paid off. Jackson Hole has over a foot new and its supposed to keep up all day today and light snow through Friday. Sun should be out all weekend until we leave Monday.

Saturday at Targhee should be fun besides some great Jackson hole powder Friday and sunny soft skiing Sunday and Monday.

Yeah, got lucky.

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Avalanche Warning issued April 15 at 1:03PM PDT by NWS

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. ...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR TEN MILE RANGE, GORE RANGE, WILLIAMS FORK MOUNTAINS, MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS, NEVER SUMMER MOUNTAINS, AND FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS... THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER IS ISSUING AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR MOUNTAIN RANGES IN EAGLE COUNTY, SUMMIT COUNTY, AND THE FRONT RANGE. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM GLENWOOD CANYON THROUGH BOULDER. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SINCE SATURDAY ARE APPROACHING TWO FEET WITH ANOTHER SIX INCHES POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS STORM AND WIND SLABS ARE FORMING IN THE WARNING AREA. SPONTANEOUS AND TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE BECOMING LIKELY. TRAVEL IN OR BELOW AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. THIS WARNING IS VALID UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. THIS STATEMENT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO PERSONS USING THE BACKCOUNTRY OUTSIDE DEVELOPED SKI AREA BOUNDARIES. WHEN NECESSARY SKI AREAS CONDUCT AVALANCHE MITIGATION TO REDUCE THE AVALANCHE DANGER WITHIN THEIR BOUNDARIES. FOR ADDITIONAL AVALANCHE INFORMATION...CALL...970-498-5311 IN FORT COLLINS...303-275-5360 IN DENVER...970-668-0600 IN SUMMIT COUNTY...719-395-4994 IN BUENA VISTA...970-920-1664 IN ASPEN..970- 247-8187 IN DURANGO...OR VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT COLORADO.GOV/AVALANCHE SNOOK

Gotta love April in the West.
 
Sweet. Another fresh foot of new snow at Abasin and Loveland on April 23 with light snow still falling...

Abasin up to a 70" base depth which is pretty good for them.
 
Admin":2m9i6afy said:
Bravo! Let's make this one of those never-ending threads. Should it take off I'll sticky it to make it persistent.

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Agree! lets make this a thread! It's a good idea! :dead horse:
 
Neither resort is known to fudge on their numbers ... (heck Loveland even has a live snow stake webcam with 24 hr replay)... Quite the difference for only a couple miles in distance and roughly the same altitude.

Area Name Snow Past Snow Past
24 Hours 48 Hours
Loveland , CO   17"   24"
Arapahoe Basin , CO   7"   11"
 
EMSC":3d0ts53b said:
I'm going to guess that even next week's predicted storm (albeit warmer so only rain down in Denver for a change of pace) won't change the numbers on Colo snowpack much for 2013.

Then again maybe I was wrong... 12" overnight at the Basin (14" in 72hrs) with more expected today... Lots of rain down here in the flatlands, so probably a bit denser than typical rocky mtn powder in the mtns.
 
It's very, very difficult for it to rain instead of snow at 11,000+ feet on the Continental Divide outside of summer. If you look at EMSC's chart for South Platte drainage the average peak snowpack is close to May 1. The back-ending of snowfall has been extreme in 2012-13 but it is the overall prevailing pattern for the region. I've heard it's even more extreme at Pikes Peak, chronically dry mid-winter as it's well leeward of the Continental Divide, but quite a bit of upslope snow off the plains in spring.
 
socal":33gyv9zz said:
Cool, I'm a weather nerd too so it'll be nice to have this thread to check amongst my other usual places. Maybe add a list of links to the first post in this thread for peoples reference?


Agree! this is really Cool! I can have my weather updates from time to time now.
 
Tony Crocker":wdnng8nv said:
It's very, very difficult for it to rain instead of snow at 11,000+ feet on the Continental Divide outside of summer. If you look at EMSC's chart for South Platte drainage the average peak snowpack is close to May 1. The back-ending of snowfall has been extreme in 2012-13 but it is the overall prevailing pattern for the region. I've heard it's even more extreme at Pikes Peak, chronically dry mid-winter as it's well leeward of the Continental Divide, but quite a bit of upslope snow off the plains in spring.

And it can sure disappear fast at this time of year. Alta has lost over 3 feet in the past 12 days.
 
Just thought I'd update Colo:

As Admin has published in the news, Aspen Mtn will reopen for memorial day weekend with up/down loading on the gondola and several intermediate trails up top for the actual skiing.

Abasin has had 8" of new snow in the past couple of days, 55" base; though all the steeps are shut down at this point due to potential for avi's and snow undermining. Zuma lift is still running for a handful of trails on the backside. They continue to hem and haw on whether they will go past their June 2nd official closing date. If they do, they say it will be for Fri-Sun weekends.

Loveland has been running tons of race camps since closing to the public and is also talking about extending those through the first full week of June.

The past couple of months have been so nice in these parts after the extreme drought of 2012 season and horrible start to 2013 season.
 
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