Western Weather 2016-17

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With this season's first true blast of winter, it's time to create a new sticky thread for weather discussion throughout this winter.

I love it when a snow forecast comes together...

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I rode up to the Uintas today with Tiny Tim and the dogs to check out the snowfall, and there was far more than we expected. It was knee-deep in places at Moosehorn Lake, despite the 13.7" snowpack measured at Bald Mountain Pass. The girls played and Tim and I reveled in our first taste of winter this season. People were even snowmobiling...in September! We stopped into The Notch Pub in Samak for a beer en route home, running into friend Nick and his wife in the process. He asked what we were doing there, and the answer was simple: "The same thing that you're doing."

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsZ6S6i2U6o[/video]

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Nice pics.

Colorado high country's been getting periodic snow since mid-August with a quite a bit last weekend right after Utah got it. Interestingly I avoid it this early and prefer the warmth remain (it's supposed to be close to 80F all week here in Denver metro) until about the start of Nov. Then it can snow all it wants over this way ;)
 
I'm Sure Admin is working on a story, but both Abasin and Loveland have fired up the snowmaking overnight.

Looks cold enough for at least the next several nights to keep making snow, though likely to have to shut down during much of the daylight hours. An inch or two of natural this morning as well to spice things up. So it begins....
 
October rainfall of 4.86 inches broke all-time records at Glacier International Airport.
On a goofy note,last night I dreamed I bought a copy of Tony Crocker's autobiagraphy " Antartic Stem Turns"
 
Dry as a bone here; still running the sprinkler system since it hasn't been cold enough to bother blowing it out yet. Mostly shorts and t-shirt weather (70's and low 80's) with very warm nights recently for the Front Range of Colo. As of today it's cooling off a bit: "only" ~10F above normal for the next 10 days which is better than the ~20F warmer than normal temps of the past several weeks.
 
October had a very sharp demarcation line between the wet and dry sectors of the West, with Utah and Colorado on the dry side of the line:
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In much of 2013-14 there was a sharp line running NW to SE, with the SW side of the line (West Coast, ID, UT) being the dry side and MT, WY, CO being the wet side.

Even though the October pattern is expected to continue for the first third of November, it's still ridiculously early to be worrying, as noted also by Joel Gratz at OpenSnow. Any quality skiing in November is an unexpected windfall IMHO. This will be the 4th November in the past 6 years we will be away from western North America most of the month. So far we haven't missed much in the way of skiing near home.
 
From today's Wasatch Snow Forecast:

http://www.wasatchsnowforecast.com/2016/11/02/sigh/":mprurs60 said:
I’m usually pretty good at finding things to be optimistic about, however right now I’m honestly struggling to find anything. I think it’s going to be difficult, if not impossible, to get many of the resorts open on time unless there is a major change from what the models are currently portraying. If you’re searching for good news, all I can tell you is that 1) It’s still very early in the season and we have months to make up for our slow start. 2) You get more time to enjoy more non-snow related recreation in the mountains. and 3) Things can change very fast, so nothing in this forecast is set in stone.
 
To no surprise Alta has postponed its opening day. With Grand Targhee also on hold, this should drive home the extremity of the warm and dry first half of November. We are truly starting from scratch with this week's snow in most of the Rockies.
 
That's not necessarily a bad thing. It's snowing here now, and will remain cold and unsetted through at least the end of the month. Perhaps for the first time in recent years we won't have that depth hoar death layer.
 
Average snowfall going forward should get Alta to where it needs to be by Christmas. Hopefully admin isn't saving PTO days for November this year.

Most destination resorts in the Rockies will need more time to accumulate an adequate natural base and should be avoided by destination visitors until January. At least the snowpack is near average in western Canada now. James will remind the easterners that perhaps they should be looking to the Alps rather than the West the way this season is starting.
 
Tony Crocker":nmt2yhfg said:
Hopefully admin isn't saving PTO days for November this year.

:dead horse: For the 50th time, you worry about your vacation and I'll worry about mine. What's so hard about that for you?

Tony Crocker":nmt2yhfg said:
At least the snowpack is near average in western Canada now.

That's hardly a universal truth, for the men's World Cup races at Lake Louise have now been canceled due to a lack of snow.
 
Admin":1yj4gema said:
the men's World Cup races at Lake Louise have now been canceled due to a lack of snow.

For the first time in something like 30 years. Ironically, Killington looks better poised to pass it's snow control for the world cup despite warmish temps there right now.

So many moved out opening dates in Colorado I couldn't possibly list them all. Some of them now scheduled for Friday 18th (eg Keystone/Copper) are going to have very narrow strips with snowguns blasting in your face. The good news being that the snowguns will actually be turned on. Though it was kinda fun to bike in shorts and tshirt right through yesterday, with snow falling today.

I expect a lot of just-in-time openings for the day before or the day after Turkey Day; in Colo at least.
 
I'm surprised to hear about Lake Louise considering that Sunshine claims to be 50% open.

Only the men's races Nov. 27-29 are cancelled. Women's races a week later are still on. And Louise opens to the public Friday.

So still better than UT and CO for the time being.
 
A snowfall map on OpenSnow for Tahoe from the evening of 11/17 predicts 112" for Truckee over the next 16 days. But Bryan Allegretto, who wrote the post, also questions the numbers and says "That seems a little overdone".
 
I drove up Big Mt. road yesterday to find 4" new snow in the village,snotel on summit reported 8" new with a total 22"
 
Thanks to this week's storm, after our crappy start Utah is now back to normal or slightly above normal snowfall (images via Wasatch Snow Forecast):

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