Western Weather 2016-17
- Thread starter Admin
- Start date
Welcome to the January dry spell, which starts today according to MarcC. 
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10743&p=67836&hilit=inversion#p67837 :stir:Marc_C":215hpr56 said:
Admin and I both strongly recommended that Jason move his trip next week from Tahoe to Utah. Inexplicably, he's just pulled the plug on the trip completely.
I think Utah will be epic next week. And maybe it will be less crowded because esteemed locals have recommended that visitors avoid this time frame. :lol:
EMSC
Well-known member
Tony,
You should track the claim over the next several years. On Jan 25 simply look on Opensnow or another snow reporting site that shows daily history for 30 days prior. Only would need to do it for a single resort - Alta. By definition if it is snowing its not an inversion going on.
You should track the claim over the next several years. On Jan 25 simply look on Opensnow or another snow reporting site that shows daily history for 30 days prior. Only would need to do it for a single resort - Alta. By definition if it is snowing its not an inversion going on.
Marc_C
Active member
He's tried that, but he still insists on using averages and not doing the necessary exponential time series analysis and two-tailed t-test. Yes, that's a lot of heavy lifting and a royal PITA, which is why I haven't done it, and after all, Tony thinks he's a statistician......(but if he's only using averages of individual days, well......).EMSC":284jl3oc said:
Also, I no longer care about Tony's opinion on the subject.
Tony Crocker":sraspt3f said:
That's what happens when you take bad advice from fellow New Yorkers ill-informed about western ski conditions:
http://forum.nyskiblog.com/Reno-td4096288i20.html
Oh, well...more for me. :wink:
Not all NYers have cancelled their flights west this weekend. 
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Just about to book den. But some prick decided to shoot up fll. So I am stuck in fla for another day
](*,)MarcC":362o66xy said:
Daily data is available online from Alta Collins since 2005 and from the Snowbird SNOTEL at similar elevation for many more years than that. It seems to me that the burden of proof here lies with the person making the assertion of a highly anomalous weather pattern by calendar date. The data is there and I've been through it a couple of times. See if you can make something different of it using any kind of esoteric stats you want.
Until such demonstration is made, the anecdotal assertion of the mid-January dry spell in Utah can be classified with comments like:
"Hurricane Katrina proves climate change is real," or alternatively,
"Senator Imhofe bringing a snowball onto the floor of the Senate proves climate change is a hoax."
I would trust Jim Steenburgh at U. of Utah way more than a couple of TV weather guys.
Tony Crocker":2sino6nm said:
You mean the guy who last winter referred to January as "inversion season?"
It cracks me up how some guy who lives in Glendale, California and who has absolutely zero meteorological training or experience whatsoever, presumes to know more about weather in Utah than people who actually live in Utah, or even Utah meteorologists (not "TV weather guys"). :roll: That is some mighty hubris!
Inversions are a subset of dry spells. Inversion season per Steenburgh is mid-December to early February. Dry spells during other months of the year are less likely to result in inversions due to weaker sun and lack of snow on the ground in SLC.
I have previously demonstrated (and I have MORE personal Utah experience than either Marc at this particular time) that dry spells are at least as likely in mid-March as in mid-January. But the Utah locals ignore the March dry spells because they are not accompanied by inversions.
I have previously demonstrated (and I have MORE personal Utah experience than either Marc at this particular time) that dry spells are at least as likely in mid-March as in mid-January. But the Utah locals ignore the March dry spells because they are not accompanied by inversions.
Tony Crocker":1jpj1mpn said:
No you haven't, because you're too lazy to do the proper analysis.
Tony Crocker":1jpj1mpn said:
I've now been living in Utah for precisely 4,376 days. And you?
Tony Crocker":1jpj1mpn said:
No, that's not the discussion at all. The discussion is that we frequently have a prolonged dry spell (with an accompanying inversion) +/- mid-January. You used to argue that inversions aren't more likely in January, but you quietly lost that argument and changed the frame of reference. Now you're trying to change the frame of reference again, and I'm not going to let you do that.
No argument with that.admin":24hni2dj said:
My point is that Utah has as frequently a prolonged dry spell in mid-March without an accompanying inversion.
From the skier's perspective the impact is identical, maybe worse in March because a melt/freeze is more likely.
From the Salt Lake Valley resident perspective the January dry spell is unpleasant because of the cold temps and smog. The March dry spell is often welcomed for the blue skies and shirtsleeve weather.
I have been skiing in Utah in mid-March in 20 different seasons. My personal experience with dry spells during that time frame is quite extraordinary, and if I took the seat-of-the-pants attitude that the Marcs do, I would assert that it is the driest part of the season and should be avoided by advance bookings.admin":24hni2dj said:
Marc_C":24hni2dj said:
Instead I actually looked at the data and found that dry spells contained entirely within December, January and March are similar in frequency. Even February doesn't look all that different now as that was the month with prolonged dry spells in 2016. Consecutive snowless day streaks at Alta Collins since 2005:
Dec: 11,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,6,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Jan: 11,10,9,9,8,8,8,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3
Feb: 10,10,9,7,7,6,5,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Mar: 12,11,10,9,9,8,7,6,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3
From the visiting skier's perspective, a December dry spell is to be feared the most because it results in delayed coverage/opening of terrain.