Western Weather 2017-18 and Later

[tseeb]

I'd met Jake Smith who was one of those who died in the 1982 avalanche at Alpine. From story written on the 25th anniversary "Jake Smith was the resort employee who courageously radioed in the avalanche even as a wall of snow was bearing down on him and his snowmobile at the edge of the parking lot". Jake's Peak, a popular place for backcountry skiing on the W shore of Tahoe is named after him.

The uncle of one of my roommates when I lived at North Tahoe/Truckee in second half of the 1970s was President of Alpine from 1973-1997 and mentioned in movie as making decision to keep Alpine closed at time of avalanche. My roommate's brother spent a summer painting lift towers with Jake Smith.

News reports say 10' of snow slid, but I think they mean that is depth of snow in the debris field. From my local paper:

 

[ChrisC]

Warren Miller is part of the Outside magazine group now. You can pay to rent or buy some titles on Amazon Prime for streaming. But the full collection is only part of "Outside +" which I can't believe virtually anyone pays for. Probably can't get the price they prefer from the main streaming players being niche content.

Yes, I refuse to pay for it. It's as much as another streamer - with a lot less content. Assume investors are going to get very, very tired of Outside Interactive's financials soon - they have to be losing lots of money. Look at Amazon's studio cuts and others....it's just time before this crap house called Outside, built on 0% interest rates, unwinds - and we get Warren Miller on a streamer. A bunch of non-synergistic properties.

However, Warren Miller is nothing more than a generic brand at this point, with the son selling in 2020.

 

[ChrisC]

News reports say 10' of snow slid, but I think they mean that is depth of snow in the debris field. From my local paper:

Assume Pallisades/us was/were slightly lucky more people did not know about KT22's opening - and there were not more skiers out there. That's relatively the main advanced run off the lift - without getting into the chutes. And avoiding the groomer.

Never really saw that area with avalanche remnants, but again - I saw only after control.

Sad times.

 

[EMSC]

A bunch of non-synergistic properties.

They mostly seem to simply shut down a few magazines per year. Used to have a bunch of motor boating and ranching titles in the mix which seem super related (not).

I suppose I could find out what their thought process is if I wanted. I know people who directly know the key players there since Outside is HQ'd here in Boulder (heck I've met in their offices for non-profit meetings a few times to boot).

 

[ChrisC]

They mostly seem to simply shut down a few magazines per year. Used to have a bunch of motor boating and ranching titles in the mix which seem super related (not).

I suppose I could find out what their thought process is if I wanted. I know people who directly know the key players there since Outside is HQ'd here in Boulder (heck I've met in their offices for non-profit meetings a few times to boot).

They will be unable to raise much more capital based on current corporate comparisons. So what I see is profitable will need to be sold. Expect a dismantling. Reality will set in the next 2 years.

Maybe they can do an AI skier model?! Hahaha.

 

[Skieric]

I also recall it being huge national news on the TV for days.

Warren Miller is part of the Outside magazine group now. You can pay to rent or buy some titles on Amazon Prime for streaming. But the full collection is only part of "Outside +" which I can't believe virtually anyone pays for. Probably can't get the price they prefer from the main streaming players being niche c

I also recall it being huge national news on the TV for days.

Warren Miller is part of the Outside magazine group now. You can pay to rent or buy some titles on Amazon Prime for streaming. But the full collection is only part of "Outside +" which I can't believe virtually anyone pays for. Probably can't get the price they prefer from the main streaming players being niche content.

Outside membership is free and included as part of the Ikon pass. There is a link to sign up from the Ikon website under the discounts section. Therefore you should be able to view the whole collection for free.

 

[EMSC]

As expected, looking like a very reactive snowpack after the long dry spell. High danger in many of the mountains.

 

[EMSC]

Berthoud Pass is always a problem in these type conditions... Road closed through at least tomorrow am due to slides and avalanches. It's a VERY long detour around if you have to do so...

Berthoud pass 10 cars caught in slide.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Berthoud Pass is always a problem in these type conditions... Road closed through at least tomorrow am due to slides and avalanches. It's a VERY long detour around if you have to do so...

That rang a bell -- I did the detour for a nice storm day at Mary Jane in January 2011 (see post #5). My note says that it only took an extra half hour vs. the normal route.

 

[EMSC]

My note says that it only took an extra half hour

That didn't make sense to me so I read the thread.

You were going only from Loveland ski area; and so better placed for the detour route. For those (vast majority) going to/from Denver yesterday night or this morning it would be certainly more than an hour of additional time. Approx an additional hour detour on good roads, but having to go around to then queue up to go through the tunnels on I70, etc.. I'm sure it was probably 2+ additional hours of time in the car in current conditions.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

You were going only from Loveland ski area; and so better placed for the detour route. For those (vast majority) going to/from Denver yesterday night or this morning it would be certainly more than an hour of additional time.

Right. It's been so long that I forgot where my starting point was.

 

[EMSC]

I'm sure it was probably 2+ additional hours of time in the car in current conditions.

I was wildly too low on that estimate. Turns out my boss was at Winter Park yesterday.

He left WP at 4:45p and arrived home at 12:45am technically today. Part of that included a 3hr I70 closure at some point due to the weather and traffic... Welcome to the disaster that is I70 in the past 10-15 years.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Alta has had 114 inches since Jan. 5, which is when MarcC's Utah dry spell starts.

FYI Alta had 8.5 inches of snow from Dec. 8 - Jan. 3.

The then valid comparisons at the end of December to horrific early western seasons like 1976-77, 1980-81 and 2011-12 can be laid to rest for PNW, Utah and Colorado. I will have those stats in a couple of days.

I think Montana is the only region with many places still in historic snow drought. Some percents open: Big Sky 44%, Discovery 16%, Lost Trail 28%, Red Lodge 36%. To add insult to injury it was -45F in Butte and Bozeman on Saturday morning.

 

[EMSC]

For those keeping score for Colorado, Loveland and Berthoud passes remain closed "indefinitely" due to the highly reactive snowpack and wind loading. With the next storm coming in tomorrow I wonder if they open by the weekend?

Has to be starting to hurt WP business a bit and boosting Copper which is now a shorter drive for Ikon (ABasin just has too much closed to go there yet IMHO).

 

[Tony Crocker]

One week into January that 57% of western average snowfall from Dec. 31 is up to 61%. That should increase even more next week.

Yes, now 78%, a very impressive jump from last week. This year is unlikely to join the ranks of worst overall as 5 seasons have been 78% or lower for the whole season. In Utah we finally have a region above average now, and the Northeast and Southwest are over 90%.

California is still the laggard at 51%, but at least the majority of terrain is finally open. 51% for California mid-January is bad but happens periodically with Sierra volatility. What's unprecedented is much of Montana, historically a region of moderate but very consistent snowfall. Bridger and Big Sky at under 40% of normal snowfall has to be a record for mid-January. And here's the first warning for q: Discovery is 25% open on 34 inches of season snowfall. It will need to snow a lot in the next 6 weeks for the Limelight steeps to be skiable this season. q has a car and could be flexible if this disaster continues, but will have to pay up more for lodging and tickets.

The flip side of consistency is that if a normally consistent ski area falls way below average, the odds against catching up are much worse than in the Sierra. Thus I don't think this early warning to q is premature.

 

[q]

Bridger and Big Sky at under 40% of normal snowfall has to be a record for mid-January. And here's the first warning for q: Discovery is 25% open on 34 inches of season snowfall. It will need to snow a lot in the next 6 weeks for the Limelight steeps to be skiable this season. q has a car and could be flexible if this disaster continues, but will have to pay up more for lodging and tickets.

The flip side of consistency is that if a normally consistent ski area falls way below average, the odds against catching up are much worse than in the Sierra. Thus I don't think this early warning to q is premature.

Yeah it's been a super skinny start but beginning to improve. It will be what it will be and there's plenty other things to do. I'll probably get some days in at Lost Trail and the like but wont suddenly appear in Colorado/Utah/Cali etc. Those days are gone. Far too expensive to travel about with lodging and tickets.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Maybe Bend/Bachelor, craft beer capital of the US and great spring skiing?

 

[EMSC]

Certainly an interesting change in the Westwide view of SWE from early Jan to today. Though still a lot of far too low snowpack; especially both South and North...

 

[Tony Crocker]

As far as ski area snowfall is concerned, since Jan. 31 California has jumped from 51% to 81% of normal, Utah from 91% to 111% and the Southwest from 84% to 92%. Taos' Kachina Peak chair finally opened Feb. 13. Overall North America snowfall is now 84%.

The northern regions are not doing well, all in the 70-76% range of season-to-date average. The map above shows the Northwest losing ground over the past month with only 2 feet of snow since the torrential rain at the end of January.

The Montana areas got 2+ feet of snow so far in February but that brings them from the 35% of normal range up to about 50% and still on pace for a record worst season. Discovery has opened all of its lifts but it's still reporting a 2-3 foot base on 57 inches season snowfall. Limelight's open runs are labelled "thin cover and unmarked hazards possible." I hope q has some beater skis and doesn't plan to spend an entire month there.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

An expat on the NY Ski Forum, now living in Vancouver, says:

Up until yesterday, things were dire here in southwest BC. Lots of the local mountains were either closed or barely operating (as they have been most of the season). The snowpack in the mountains around Vancouver was more akin to what you would see in mid to late June in a normal year. The storm currently slamming the west coast is a game changer for this season, especially in these parts. Whistler is easily looking at 3-4 feet from this.