2010-11: The Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetimes?

[Admin]

Second of all, the Earth is only 5,000 years old.

Really?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_earth

(Or was that a ?)

 

[riverc0il]

Second of all, the Earth is only 5,000 years old.

Really?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_earth

(Or was that a ?)

The dude is a geography guy, hahah. Patrick was just telling me this past weekend how his sarcastic humor is often missed online. Maybe Patrick needs to use more emoticons?

:lol:

 

[Admin]

The dude is a geography guy, hahah. Patrick was just telling me this past weekend how his sarcastic humor is often missed online. Maybe Patrick needs to use more emoticons?

:lol:

Hence:

(Or was that a ?)

I wasn't sure because Patrick has espoused some screwier ideas lately on these fora. :wink:

 

[Patrick]

Sorry, I was mistaken...It's 6,000 years + or - 5 days.

Here is a fascinating read:

http://www.answersingenesis.org/article ... d-is-earth

When we start our thinking with God’s Word, we see that the world is about 6,000 years old. When we rely on man’s fallible (and often demonstrably false) dating methods, we can get a confusing range of ages from a few thousand to billions of years, though the vast majority of methods do not give dates even close to billions.

Cultures around the world give an age of the earth which confirms what the Bible teaches. Radiometric dates, on the other hand, have been shown to be wildly in error.

:stir:

 

[Tony Crocker]

I am seriously baffled why Riverc0il is offended by this conclusion. When Patrick argued that the snowfall data should be in some way reflective of skier visits, I noted that Kottke does that and still comes up with 2010-11 as the top season in 20 years. With continued eastern protest I looked up Kottke's actual numbers and found that Kottke had 134% of average vs. my 128%. Now I've found good average skier visits estimates of the past few seasons for my regions (US and Canada combined). These are (x 1 million):
California including Nevada and Arizona: 7.8
Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, coastal British Columbia and Alaska): 7.1
Interior Canada (Alberta and non-coastal British Columbia): 4.8
US Northern Rockies (Idaho, Montana and Wyoming): 3.2
Utah: 4
Northern and Central Colorado: 8.8
Southern and Western Colorado + New Mexico: 4
Northeast defined as New England + New York + Quebec: 20
Total 59.7 so Northeast is slightly over 1/3. I do think that 20 for the Northeast is generous because at least 1/4 of that comes from areas that are very low snowfall and thus quality is driven mainly by snowmaking. No matter, the revised chart below uses the 20 for the Northeast.

Results:
2010-11 has fallen from 128% to 124%. However it's still the top season by a margin of 8% vs. 9% by my original equal weighting of regions. Looking at the whole chart the modest 4% difference in 2010-11 between the 2 weighting methods is typical (average is 3.2%). The Northeast being lowest region in 2010-11 was mostly offset by the next 2 highest skier visit regions being the ones with the highest percentage snowfall, a result I predicted after seeing the Kottke numbers. Over 36 seasons there will be a few where the different weighting methods diverge significantly. I knew before crunching any numbers that 1976-77 (2nd best in the East, worst ever in 6 of the 7 western regions) would be the outlier.

With regard to Geoff's carping about my Vermont chart, that's a different issue tangential to the 2010-11 snowfall totals. I would like to hear JSpin's take on that issue as well as the primary topic here. Given the current level of Vermont reports on FTO I'm mainly relying on JSpin's posts for the past couple of seasons in adding to the Vermont chart.

 

[soulskier]

A quick look at Tony's slick chart reveals that 1981-82 is the only other year that all regions were 100% or more of normal. What's the 6 pages of banter about?

 

[rfarren]

A quick look at Tony's slick chart reveals that 1981-82 is the only other year that all regions were 100% or more of normal. What's the 6 pages of banter about?

I heartily agree with soulskier, hell has just frozen over.

 

[Geoff]

A quick look at Tony's slick chart reveals that 1981-82 is the only other year that all regions were 100% or more of normal. What's the 6 pages of banter about?

I heartily agree with soulskier, hell has just frozen over.

Not hardly. This is 6 pages of objections over Tony ignoring the fact that almost 50% of skier visits in the US are east of the Mississippi where it wasn't an outstanding snow year. The skier visits are around 60 million for the US and 27 million east of the Mississipi. Nobody is going to argue that west of the Mississippi had a great year. For almost half the skiers in the country, Tony's statement just ain't true.

http://www.nsaa.org/nsaa/press/historical-visits.pdf

As Tip O'Neil said, "All politics is local". The same is true of any statements about snow years.

 

[Tony Crocker]

](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
The title is not greatest ski season, it's greatest SNOW year. By that I mean natural snow and have now retitled the thread accordingly. Natural snow is marginally relevant to the quality of the 13 million skier visits in the Midwest and Southeast. It's similarly tangential to the quality of a significant fraction (at least 1/4 and 1/3 is probably a better estimate) of the 20 million (that includes Canada as well as US) Northeast skier visits. Nonetheless counting the entire 20 million Northeast skier visits (thus a 1/3+ weighting of the total) the conclusion about 2010-11 on a continental scale is the same.

The skier visits are around 60 million for the US and 27 million east of the Mississippi.

That reference is from Kottke, which as I noted pages ago draws the same conclusion that 2010-11 is the greatest snow year in their 20 years of data.

Surely everyone here knows that the focus of my research has been upon natural snowfall. Long before I encountered FTO I realized that it was relevant to enough of the Northeast that I needed to put some effort into rounding up data to make valid conclusions about natural snow skiing in the Northeast. The associate editor at Powder Magazine who supervised that effort in 1995 was Leslie Anthony, who had spent most of his previous life in eastern Canada. Powder paid for $500 in phone bills for me to collect more data from the Northeast and western Canada but did not request that I collect any data from the Midwest or Southeast.

As Tip O'Neil said, "All politics is local". The same is true of any statements about snow years.

I realize some people are so provincial that they don't give a sh!t about what happens outside their region or home hill. I would remind those here that the vast majority of western skiers (and that includes ski journalists) dismiss everything east of Colorado out of hand.

FTO in general is a well informed audience that does care about what is going on all over the ski world. I posted the same original analysis on Epic and received similar initial questions asking about New Mexico's bad year and for some clarification about my Northeast definitions. I did not get comments about regional weighting being unreasonable and certainly not 4 pages of "the conclusion can't be right because it wasn't that great in my region."

I may conduct the experiment of putting this up on TGR to see what that hypercritical audience has to say.

 

[Marc_C]

](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
The title is not greatest ski season, it's greatest SNOW year.

Tony, maybe it's time to give it a rest. The argument firmly ventured into the territory of counting angels on the head of a pin about 5 pages ago.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Tony, maybe it's time to give it a rest.

I agree. I thought a formal exercise doing the exact skier visit weighting prompted by Patrick's critique would bring this thread to a conclusion.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I may conduct the experiment of putting this up on TGR to see what that hypercritical audience has to say.

Don't forget to post the Excel sheet. They'll love that.

 

[soulskier]

Tony, I'd like to post the chart on MRA's Facebook page. I hope that is OK. I will be sure to give you credit.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Tony, I'd like to post the chart on MRA's Facebook page. I hope that is OK. I will be sure to give you credit.

No problem. Based upon his past comments, soulskier might need to be persuaded not to exclude the East from the chart completely. :lol:

I would recommend posting the regional definitions below to answer in advance the questions about New Mexico, etc. The numbers are skier visit totals if you use the second chart to compare equal region weighing to skier visit weighting.

California including Nevada and Arizona: 7.8
Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, coastal British Columbia and Alaska): 7.1
Interior Canada (Alberta and non-coastal British Columbia): 4.8
US Northern Rockies (Idaho, Montana and Wyoming): 3.2
Utah: 4
Northern and Central Colorado: 8.8
Southern and Western Colorado + New Mexico: 4
Northeast defined as New England + New York + Quebec: 20

 

[soulskier]

Tony, I'd like to post the chart on MRA's Facebook page. I hope that is OK. I will be sure to give you credit.

No problem. Based upon his past comments, soulskier might need to be persuaded not to exclude the East from the chart completely. :lol:

Thanks for the permission.

Tony, I visited the East Coast this winter and have a new found appreciation for their passion towards skiing. So much so, you might even see some existing ski areas converted to MRA mountain playgrounds one day.

 

[Mike Bernstein]

So the entire East and Midwest account for a fraction of skier visits??? His continental average account for 12% of the continent. I'm pretty sure that these areas account more than 12% of the skier-visits?

I still think that the Eastern number might be skewed. Cannon is high above average and WV is below. If Tony's wants to talk about the West as a whole, I'm would be comfortable with that, but Cannon, WF (and Sutton) would the East are outliers which would be dragging the number above average here. As for the negative outlier at Le Massif (92%), I suspect that they are way more common.

No matter what reasonable numbers you may choose to allocate from a skier visits perspective, the fact remains that even the worst areas had avg snowfall for the year. As an Eastern skier, surely even you should be able to comprehend how unusual that is.

Pick your local hill.
Find their claimed avg annual snowfall.
Now imagine that this amount of snow is the least they ever get.

That would be pretty sweet, no?

What you're doing is the equivalent of saying that the powder day sucked b/c your ski got a gouge on the south facing, non-snowmkaing run. Well no sh!t, sherlock.

 

[Patrick]

No matter what reasonable numbers you may choose to allocate from a skier visits perspective, the fact remains that even the worst areas had avg snowfall for the year. As an Eastern skier, surely even you should be able to comprehend how unusual that is.

Pick your local hill.
Find their claimed avg annual snowfall.
Now imagine that this amount of snow is the least they ever get.

That would be pretty sweet, no?

What you're doing is the equivalent of saying that the powder day sucked b/c your ski got a gouge on the south facing, non-snowmkaing run. Well no sh!t, sherlock.

Wrong!!! :dead horse: I don't have easily accessible stat, but the City of Ottawa (Airport) was at 73%. Ski hiils are 30km north of that point (airport).

I disagree...Tony is talking about North America and Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetime. His sample isn't representative of the East which would included hundreds of ski areas. My local year was far from average, my region was far from average, hell everything north of the Appalachian wasn't average. We are talking maybe 7/8 of the Quebec Ski areas under average. Not slightly under, clearly under average.

I didn't go stormchasing this winter, but I generally keep my eye out and there wasn't much out of the ordinary except prior to Christmas.

 

[rfarren]

hell everything north of the Appalachian wasn't average.

That is patently wrong...

Our season was longer than normal (cold spring, and if you don't believe me ask about every farmer in the NE) and there was far less rain, which is by far a more important stat than just simple snowfall, and as far as your snowfall numbers are concerned, the daks were well above normal, the greens were at average at worst, all points south were either average or slightly above average as far as total snowfall numbers.

I disagree...Tony is talking about North America and Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetime. His sample isn't representative of the East which would included hundreds of ski areas.

Umm, yes it does...

I think the greater issue for you is that:

the City of Ottawa (Airport) was at 73%. Ski hiils are 30km north of that point (airport)

Which is myopic and provincial when we're talking about the whole of america. It's as if you're saying that the pacific ocean was warmer than normal last year (it wasn't) based off of a 100 mile strip of beach in Washington state.

I didn't go stormchasing this winter, but I generally keep my eye out and there wasn't much out of the ordinary except prior to Christmas.

That's ludicrous to judge a season prior to Christmas. That's like judging how tall a person is going to be when they're two.

 

[Patrick]

hell everything north of the Appalachian wasn't average.

That is patently wrong...

Our season was longer than normal (cold spring, and if you don't believe me ask about every farmer in the NE) and there was far less rain, which is by far a more important stat than just simple snowfall, and as far as your snowfall numbers are concerned, the daks were well above normal, the greens were at average at worst, all points south were either average or slightly above average as far as total snowfall numbers.

1) Tony is talking about Snow accumulation. Not longest or less freeze-thaw season of our lifetime.
2) As a geographer, I include the Daks as part of the Appalachians.

I disagree...Tony is talking about North America and Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetime. His sample isn't representative of the East which would included hundreds of ski areas.

Umm, yes it does...

I think the greater issue for you is that:

the City of Ottawa (Airport) was at 73%. Ski hiils are 30km north of that point (airport)

Which is myopic and provincial when we're talking about the whole of america. It's as if you're saying that the pacific ocean was warmer than normal last year (it wasn't) based off of a 100 mile strip of beach in Washington state.

If I would have the stat for the Quebec ski areas north of Ottawa at a finger tip or the Laurentians and beyond Quebec City, those numbers would closely parallel the one I stated for the City of Ottawa. I commented that it was the only fast number I could find. Observations and over 40 years of skiing tells me that the numbers I quoted isn't far off what the reality was this season in the regions I mentioned and would surprise if any one would be average. Tony has only one number of the entire province, Le Massif , and it's at 92% and we are talking pretty far from the Laurentians areas. You just have to read my TR or Anthony's Laurentian Update to see that we were far from a good year. Provincial? The area covered by Quebec ski area (I'm not even talking about the size of the place) is bigger in size than all of New England. Tony has also no number for Ontario and East of Quebec.

I didn't go stormchasing this winter, but I generally keep my eye out and there wasn't much out of the ordinary except prior to Christmas.

That's ludicrous to judge a season prior to Christmas. That's like judging how tall a person is going to be when they're two.

I meant that there wasn't any good storm in the East (all of the East and generally in New England-Townships border area) that got dumped on except for the period prior to Christmas. Not locally, but in the NE-T areas. Ask Riverc0il and other storm chaser out there...storm were few and far between and nothing to write home about. Might have been great around NYC, but go North ...nothing.

 

[Mike Bernstein]

No matter what reasonable numbers you may choose to allocate from a skier visits perspective, the fact remains that even the worst areas had avg snowfall for the year. As an Eastern skier, surely even you should be able to comprehend how unusual that is.

Pick your local hill.
Find their claimed avg annual snowfall.
Now imagine that this amount of snow is the least they ever get.

That would be pretty sweet, no?

What you're doing is the equivalent of saying that the powder day sucked b/c your ski got a gouge on the south facing, non-snowmkaing run. Well no sh!t, sherlock.

Wrong!!! :dead horse: I don't have easily accessible stat, but the City of Ottawa (Airport) was at 73%. Ski hiils are 30km north of that point (airport).

I disagree...Tony is talking about North America and Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetime. His sample isn't representative of the East which would included hundreds of ski areas. My local year was far from average, my region was far from average, hell everything north of the Appalachian wasn't average. We are talking maybe 7/8 of the Quebec Ski areas under average. Not slightly under, clearly under average.

I didn't go stormchasing this winter, but I generally keep my eye out and there wasn't much out of the ordinary except prior to Christmas.

So, in other words, b/c the snow in your particular backyard wasn't as deep as you had hoped, then the claim that it's the best snowfall year across North America as a whole is invalid?

Uh, ok. That makes sense. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that sounds?