Quite the miss.
My daughters and wife are very depressed. But we have no choice but to move on.
Again, that could have happened with Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Dem. | Rep. | Percent reported | Rep. Margin | Accum. Electoral vote | ||
10 | Wis. | 48.8% | 49.6% | 99% | 0.8% | 312 |
15 | Mich. | 48.3% | 49.7% | 99% | 1.4% | 302 |
19 | Pa. | 48.5% | 50.4% | 98% | 1.9% | 287 |
16 | Ga. | 48.5% | 50.7% | 99% | 2.2% | 268 |
16 | N.C. | 47.7% | 51.0% | 99% | 3.3% | 252 |
6 | Nev. | 47.2% | 51.0% | 94% | 3.8% | 236 |
11 | Ariz. | 46.8% | 52.3% | 70% | 5.5% | 230 |
93 | 219 |
While driving to Morristown NJ a few minutes ago, a reminder that whenever he flies into and out of that small airport to visit his country club in Bedminster, they have to close down the highway for an hour before and after landing, accompanied by monster delays. Obviously small potatoes in the greater scheme, but to quote Tony Soprano, "here I am again... back."
Again, that could have happened with Obama in 2008 and 2012.
As a public service, let's walk through the tipping point calculation for 2024 based upon current results.
Start Trump with the 219 electoral votes from the safe Republican states. Here are the results from the swing states:
Dem.Wis.
48.8%Mich.
48.3%Pa.
48.5%Ga.
48.5%N.C.
47.7%Nev.
47.2%Ariz.
46.8%
The states are sorted in order of Republican margin of victory, with each state's electoral vote count in the far left column. So the far right column adds each swing state from the bottom up to the initial 219 from the safe states.
Pennsylvania is the state that brings Trump's total over 270. That is the definition of tipping point state.
Currently Trump's margin in the national popular vote is 50.8% - 47.5% = 3.3%
To calculate electoral vote bias, you move the winner's national popular vote margin down in every state the amount to make the tipping point state's margin zero.
So 3.3% - 1.9% = 1.4% This means that if Pennsylvania had been a dead heat, Trump would still be ahead by 1.4% in national popular vote. It means as well that if Harris had won Pennsylvania by 0.1%, she would also have won Michigan, Wisconsin and the electoral college while losing the popular vote by 1.3%. Perhaps this will lay to rest the narrative that the electoral college is biased in favor of the Republicans.
Refer to the table of electoral college bias since 1952 that I posted earlier. The bias on average is a measly 0.12% in favor of the Republicans and should get even closer to zero with final 2024 numbers.
If the tipping point state popular vote margin is less than the national margin, the electoral college favors the electoral college winner.
If the tipping point state popular vote margin is greater than the national margin, the electoral college favors the electoral college loser.
Yes, it's 4.5 million now, but rates to still be 3.5 million once California is done counting.
After the repeated assertion of consistent Republican bias in the electoral college, I felt it necessary to show the step by step calculation. I was surprised by the result. Yesterday I knew the Republican bias from 2020 was coming way down due to Trump's disproportionate improvement (9-11%) in the 4 largest states. I did not realize it would actually go the other way in 2024. Aside from Nevada, the swing states moved much less in Trump's direction (average 3%) than the overall popular vote did (8+%).
So obvious now. At the moment I feel pretty dumb for thinking Trump would get beaten.
What was obvious was the uncertainty IMHO given the degrading quality of polling. Nate Silver predicted a 60% chance of at least 6 of the 7 swing states going in one direction. He didn't know which direction though his gut said Trump. Ann Selzer was the red herring on the direction.
If you really want to "remember when" then you need to go back to what got him to ever run at all. Obama made a point of personally embarrassing Trump in 2011 (like badly and very very uncomfortably so, in public). Without that incident Trump would not have run.
Yes and it wasn't only Obama at that dinner, as this link shows: I remember when Trump was running as a joke. Based on Seth Myers' bit, he was already running for president as a Republican and this event only reinforced his anger, grievance, etc. against the Dems.
That clip is here.
His keys weren't wrong but he was wrong about Trump's obvious charisma when running as an outsider. I found his calls online and the Trump charisma key is the only difference between his list and my list.
I don’t think there’s much chance of a hard left person being elected in the USA.
I’m left leaning.