A few decent jokes at the Dems' expense in Bill Maher's monologue last night -- especially the one about the Georgia Secretary of State. 
American Election 2024
- Thread starter Sbooker
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ChrisC
Well-known member
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As I pointed out a few days before the election ^^, the Dems are helpless against the GOP's masterful practitioners of the dark Machiavellian arts. On that note, Bret Stephens gets to say I told you so repeatedly while diehard lefty Gail Collins stews and eats crow.
Bill Burr on SNL/skip to 2:20:
Love the Pennsylvania line.
On Nov. 6, I wrote:
Trump's popular vote lead is down to 3 million and 2.0% now (California is 88% counted). The margin in tipping point Pennsylvania is 1.8%, so currently there is a tiny 0.2% electoral college bias in favor of the Democrats in 2024, which may vanish when California is done.
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You can slice and dice the beans all you want about which party it favored. The electoral college needs to go, full stop (of course it won't in my lifetime, possibly ever).
EMSC
Well-known member
I take this as poor understanding of why it exists in the first place. It was not some historical accident as many MSM will pitch it today, it was a very intentional set up and remains very important, though I also fully expect that we will agree to disagree on the topic.
Yes it's a relic, and the rationale for it in 1787 no longer applies. My point is that long term it is not biased toward a particular party, small vs. large states, etc. The extremely high 3.82% bias in 2020 was alarming but thankfully it was wiped out this time and hopefully is a very rare occurrence going forward. Both parties would be well advised to direct their reform efforts toward objectives that don't require amending the Constitution IMHO.
The rural red states are every bit as irrelevant as NY and CA to the Electoral College. What relevant are the swing states, 7 of them this time.Over time states evolve in or out of swing status. In Obama's era Colorado and Virginia were swing states but in Trump's era are blue. In Obama's era Florida, Iowa and Ohio were swing states but in Trump's era are red. In 2016 Hillary didn't think Wisconsin and Michigan were swing states, but surprise!
California was the tipping point state in 1948 and voted Republican for president every time from 1952 - 1988 except for the LBJ landslide in 1964, though narrowly in 1960, 1968, 1976 and 1988. It's only been a safe blue state for President since 1992.
EMSC
Well-known member
Disagree with first statement
Agree with 2nd statement
Glad we can all agree, lol.
As rules of engagement to keep things civil, it might be helpful to explain why there's a disagreement rather than a hit-and-run "you have a poor understanding of ___" or partisan acronyms like MSM. @Harvey can tell us about how quickly conversations like this devolve into name calling and the next thing you know, the thread is locked and political discussions are banned.
EMSC
Well-known member
Sorry about that. I think that the details of which would be a very long post and not likely to easily change someone's mind who already has a polar opposite opinion (though would quite probably persuade someone who is currently neutral or unaware of the topic).
Thus why I simply said we'll have to agree to disagree. Just trying to keep things civil enough without devolving into long winded posts that are unlikely to be useful overall while also pointing out that there are some equally strong opinions/reasons why the Electoral college makes a lot of sense. I use MSM as a generic 'news provider' as there have been plenty of main stream articles written in the past roughly decade bashing the electoral college almost as a scare tactic instead of from anything resembling a thoughtful and informed information piece. Maybe I can find an already written online article that actually does outline roughly my take on the subject so I can link to it without the huge diatribe possibilities that I probably don't have the time for writing up at the moment anyway.
This is really the thing.
Please explain. In 1787 they wanted the electors as a judgment based filter between the popular vote and choosing of a president. But not soon after the electors became 95+% of the time winner take all popular vote by state. So the electoral college today is just a different way of counting the popular vote. In the modern era what makes the electoral vote more valid than the popular vote? As I've demonstrated it's random variable that usually but not always produces the same result.Disagree with first statement
Arguments I've heard in favor are that in an extremely close election you only have to recount one or two states, and that there is less of an incentive in lopsided large states to run up the score.
I agree with this 100%. I'm not saying it wasn't provoked but the MSM has become more openly left-of-center partisan in the age of Trump. And much of the anti-electoral college narrative is based upon the false premise that it is biased toward the Republicans. Despite the small sample size that the 4 elections where it diverged from the popular vote went that way, I have demonstrated that if you analyze all of the elections there is essentially no consistent political bias.
When MSM bias turns out to be questionable (Russiagate, Hunter Biden's laptop, origins of and responses to COVID, transing children before puberty, granular effects of climate change), the woke police in the MSM and academia are every bit as stubborn as Trump in going into full denial mode that they can't possibly be wrong. So no surprise trust in MSM is in steady decline and when they warn of serious risks of a Trump presidency fewer people believe it.
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Perhaps the title of the thread could be changed to include the word ‘fallout’?
A nice pic above of the brains trust. RFK the health nut tucking into some Coke and Maccas.
@Tony Crocker i know you are a past Tesla buyer. Do you think Elon’s involvement in the election will have an adverse effect on Tesla sales? I personally would not buy one now out of principle. (I’m not suggesting that decision is entirely rational). I think there may be many other people (about 50 percent of the population of most western countries) who are now thinking like me.
ChrisC
Well-known member
Elon is very afraid of his collapse in EV Market Share, especially in the US. Hence, he started a Price War a while ago. He hopes Trump gets rid of the $7500 Tax Credit per EV vehicle sold because it should hurt upstart and legacy car makers worse.
And almost all of his profits result from selling regulatory tax credits to other automakers.
My brother got rid of his Tesla last year and purchased a Rivian. His Tesla Y (SUV?) is horrible in snow and stays hidden all winter in Colorado. Unless his wife takes it out to crash it.
I made a deposit ($100) to get on the Rivian R2, which should be available—almost never—in 2026+. But I like my old 4Runner, which gets abused on city streets, and I do not care about dings/nicks/etc. It's almost ready for hospice, but I am one who does not care about cars much - they are just, unfortunately, necessary, depreciating assets.
I liked the contents of your entire post but especially these bits. You’re a funny man. I hope we run into one another in person at some point.
