EMSC
Well-known member
Historically the numbers, in the US at least, track far closer to good/bad snowfall than good/bad economics.
There is probably some economic influence, but it is not large.
Harv's NY/VT Pictures Thread
- Thread starter Harvey
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There is probably some economic influence, but it is not large.
Not sure I can explain it.
It was close to freezing, but really no sun to speak of. The small amount of snow on top of the very firm and ice was extremely grippy. You could ski steep stuff. Best I can do.
100%.
James and I have perhaps different standards about what constitutes good conditions. We had this discussion at Serre Chevalier and concluded that James is not an "eastern skier," as only a modest proportion of his skiing is done there.
Weird stuff can happen to rained upon snow. I know from many experiences that refrozen snow tends to soften to spring conditions faster than packed powder. It would not surprise me if in barely over freezing weather, previously rained upon snow might ski better than heavily trafficked manmade hardpack. The strangest condition I observed at Baldy in 1995 was when previously rained upon snow became saturated with fog and turned into corn.
I have Mammoth skier visits through 2019 (Alterra won't release them since) and have analyzed this subject quite a bit.
Mammoth skier visits correlate -13% to California's unemployment rate but 62% to Mammoth snowfall and 80% to my weekly snow conditions index.
Comparing bad snowfall seasons to immediately preceding normal or better seasons:
Worst ever 1976-77 visits fell 63%
1986-87 visits fell 51%
1990-91 visits fell 52%
The latter season forced Mammoth's first ever layoffs and the installation of a serious snowmaking system with the following results:
2006-07 visits fell 31%
2011-12 visits fell 28%
Economic comparisons:
During excellent seasons, 2010-11 visits with 12.1% unemployment were 19% lower than 2005-06 visits with 4.9% unemployment.
During bad seasons, 2011-12 visits with 11.0% unemployment were 13% lower than 2006-07 visits with 5.0% unemployment.
From the US Kottke Report snowfall to skier visit correlation since 2002-03 is 44%. But on a regional basis:
Northeast 63%
California 73%
Pacific Northwest 83%
By contrast, Rocky Mountains 1%
This is a demonstration that destination skiers rarely change their plans. Also, the strong growth of Rockies skier visits in recent years is going to override other factors.
US national skier visits correlate -20% to the December unemployment rate. Before 2021-22 the record US skier visit number was 60.5 million in the high snowfall 2007-08 (5.0% unemployment) and 2010-11 (9.3% unemployment) seasons.
2021-22 revised US numbers actually set a new record of 60.7 million, which rates to be broken again with a much better snow season than last year. If visits drop in 2023-24 it will be likely due to less snow than this season.
There's a perception that easterners enjoy (and are somehow naturally talented at) skiing snowmaking boilerplate. I assured him that was not necessarily the case, at least in my case. He and Liz heard my grumbling when we skied the unpleasant last 1,000 verts down to the base at the end of the day. They were much more tolerant of it!
I suppose that's one of the key signs of a true expert -- when you can effortlessly ski in any conditions, like our guide Julien at Serre Chevalier.
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Yes. That's why Lonnie's informal group of friends named themselves M.O.A.C. (masters of all conditions). One of them has a SKI MOAC license plate.
It's more a matter if that's what you have to ski much of the time, your skills at it will improve. There's still a disconnect in my brain seeing Liz' relative comfort in those conditions when she is still uncomfortable on exposed steeps when the snow is much better.
Weather has been tough, but I did have a great 3 day run at Gore last weekend into Tuesday.
Night ski at the cabin to start the weekend
Sunday morning at the Ski Bowl
Strategic early am poach
Burnt Ridge is my favorite part of Gore
Open Pit on Day 2
Gore Nirvana
My buddy Armon
Story here:
nyskiblog.com
Night ski at the cabin to start the weekend
Sunday morning at the Ski Bowl
Strategic early am poach
Burnt Ridge is my favorite part of Gore
Open Pit on Day 2
Gore Nirvana
My buddy Armon
Story here:
Gore Mountain, NY: Feb 26-28 2023
It's go time. I've pushed hard all year balancing work, and content, and skiing. The season has been tough in a variety of ways, but I've pushed it to my limit. The tag does wag the dog. I'm often looking for a NY story and good skiing at the same time. Invariably chasing a story involves more...
nyskiblog.com
Good to see the woods looking soft.
Plattekill got 8 inches of beautiful snow, and we skied it from first chair to about 2:30. Spoke to Roman tonight, head of the ski school (skis Platts a lot) he said it was the best day of the year so far. It was an odd combo, truly looked low tide-ish, but it was quite skiable. Tracks to be found all day, including some side country.
Everyone is looking at Weds.
The Face
Harv
Scottski
Buckethead
A few more pics here...
nyskiblog.com
Everyone is looking at Weds.
The Face
Harv
Scottski
Buckethead
A few more pics here...
Plattekill, NY: 3/11/23 POW
Saturday was a great day at Plattekill. But it didn't come without some comeuppance, that left me at a disadvantage when chasing snow. Looking to avoid any kind of driving adventure, I called @Scottski63 and invited myself over to crash Friday night. We drove up Meeker Hollow Road around...
nyskiblog.com
Looks like NYS is finally getting proper conditions. Wasn't there a recent season that was like this -- really bad until early March and then a big recovery?
I'm guessing you are thinking of 06/07 - no real snow until Valentine's Day, then 3 or 4 big storms after?
Honestly I feel the same way.
At Gore we look for 40 inches season to date, with hopefully some well timed mixed precip in the middle somewhere.
I doubt there was much more than 2 feet underfoot in those Plattekill shots, but I got zero base damage and didn't hit much.
Plattekill is rockier than Gore too. Gore is really smooth underneath.
Reports from the hill at Gore are off the hook, 30+ inches of blower. Tomorrow should be unreal as only 3 lifts spun today.
I'm at my desk, but have figured out a way to take off. I'm going to Plattekill which was not open today. They don't seem to be getting the same 3 feet as Gore, but trees were in play Saturday and 12-18 will be quite nice.
Due to an unfortunate accident, I am driving a Prius with crappy tires. Hopefully tomorrow is not exciting until after I arrive at the hill.
To keep with the thread topic, here's a shot from my buddy Scott, taken this morning at Hunter.
I'm at my desk, but have figured out a way to take off. I'm going to Plattekill which was not open today. They don't seem to be getting the same 3 feet as Gore, but trees were in play Saturday and 12-18 will be quite nice.
Due to an unfortunate accident, I am driving a Prius with crappy tires. Hopefully tomorrow is not exciting until after I arrive at the hill.
To keep with the thread topic, here's a shot from my buddy Scott, taken this morning at Hunter.
Not sure what you're saying here.
Not sure what you're saying here.
If 40 inches of snow have fallen we generally see that the trees are ready to ski. This assumes an "average" amount of rain or snow loss. Obviously you could have 40 inches of snow and bare ground.
It's a much lower bar then say at a place like Stowe. Part of that is "lower standards" and part of it is that we keep things trimmed pretty tight since we don't get nearly as much snow.
I assume that the all-mountain rental was cancelled well in advance of the Weds storm. I wonder how much of a difference in revenue there is between a rental and a Powder Daize?