How did the EC mountains hold up after this last rain?
- Thread starter rfarren
- Start date
berkshireskier
Active member
Models for upcoming storm this Sunday and Monday are, again, all over the map for the track of the low pressure system but does NOT seem probable that mountains of western NE or NY state will get any substantial amount of snow. Possibly, Cape and the Islands and southeastern NE may get some decent snowfall and possibly Maine too, if storm hooks back westward, as forecasters think it may do. Sugarloaf and SR may get the most snow out of this system. The good news is that long term forecast calls for cold weather through New Year's, so most ski areas should be able to make snow almost 24/7 for the next two weeks.
berkshireskier
Active member
kingslug":2fnnjw6i said:
So true. Many eastern areas could not survive without snowmaking.
riverc0il":22idyyop said:
Thanks for the link over Steve!
Seriously though, this is a funny discussion... I really find Tony's estimates from California laughable for a few reasons. First it's made from California based on a weird metric (trails open)...
Second, it gets people discouraged about skiing in the east, and I think thereby bad skiing on the east becomes something of a self fulfilling prophecy, I'm all for it... more for me.
Third, ff you want to call folks who get after the best skiing "cherry pickers," that's fine... but I mean... what point does that serve? I think by definition anyone who is just skiing good snow is cherry picking!
Call it the worst start ever... I'll call it the best. I've probably had more pow days already this season than most west coast skiers will rack up all year.
And the truth is this was one of the best weeks yet on the EC this season.
It rained on Sunday/Monday morning, and snowed immediately on the backside which prevented the formation of an ice crust. The fresh snow insulated the wet lower snow, and allowed it to drain, turning it into a nice styrofoam base rather than the dreaded ice sheet. Over the work week we picked up between 3 and 8" a day, and by the end of Friday we're approaching 20"...
By Wednesday we were back to this:
Thursday featured some of this:
And Friday had a little bit of this:
With a little scenery thrown in for good measure
Maybe it's not epic in every east coast skier's backyard... but there was never a cherry tree there in the first place. If you want cherries... go to the cherry tree
Tony's calls from across the country are usually half true, half :-s. Unfortunately, unless he reviews TRs on a daily basis from five or more different forums covering all our sub-regions (not feasible), he'll never get the whole story -- hence, his "the East Coast looks like this right now" pronouncements.gpetrics":3o6pha3e said:
To his credit, Tony's one of a very tiny group of non-ECers (a group of one?) who makes an attempt to understand what's going on in our part of the universe.
I plead guilty to
My term "cherry picker" intends no disrespect. On the contrary it's a term of admiration, and I've repeatedly opined that it's a necessary strategy for easterners to get good quality skiing. The reality is that few people actually do it consistently, and thus the "once-a-week" method does represent expected conditions well for the vast majority of skiers. And it certainly provides valid guidance for advance booked ski vacations.
But in the East ~3/4 of the ski areas really only have trails anyway, and reported acreage is wildly inconsistent. My reports would misrepresent a point in time if the off trail acreage in the trees had a substantially higher percent open than the trail acreage. On the days with challenging(?) surface conditions I suspect it's actually the other way around.
But this is consistent with the way I report all regions. With a large enough sample size (and I've been doing it 3-4x per month since 1996-97) it does lead to valid conclusions (in any region) of the expected percent of open terrain and terrain with powder/packed powder conditions at a given time of the season. Southern California has a somewhat similar variability in day-to-day conditions (we're in the second day of rain in the ski areas with several more on the way) and I've been using the "once-a-week" measure there since I started skiing in 1975-76.
My term "cherry picker" intends no disrespect. On the contrary it's a term of admiration, and I've repeatedly opined that it's a necessary strategy for easterners to get good quality skiing. The reality is that few people actually do it consistently, and thus the "once-a-week" method does represent expected conditions well for the vast majority of skiers. And it certainly provides valid guidance for advance booked ski vacations.
What metric would be better? Certainly not the usually reported base depths, which are often fudged and must be interpreted with specific knowledge of each individual ski area. Overnight new snow still needs the context of whether it fell on a adequate skiable base. For new snow when I was doing L.A. Times reports once a week I tried to provide new snow in the past week for better context. Percent of acreage open might be better than percent of trails, and in some regions like Colorado that's what I actually use.gpetrics":2yphq0yc said:
But in the East ~3/4 of the ski areas really only have trails anyway, and reported acreage is wildly inconsistent. My reports would misrepresent a point in time if the off trail acreage in the trees had a substantially higher percent open than the trail acreage. On the days with challenging(?) surface conditions I suspect it's actually the other way around.
riverc0il
New member
Another ski one weekend day ski week for me, another powder day. Just want to keep things real here... that is two Saturday powder days in a row. Not exactly cherry picking. I ski about 50 days a season and if I am lucky, 10 of them are mid-week and maybe 8 of them are mid-week powder. I get after it for sure, and being ready to earn certainly is a benefit. And last minute mid-week vacation days really help as well. But, the vast majority of my skiing and my powder days and my best conditions days are all weekend. Boot deep all day today on a Saturday in the third worst December in the past ten years. If this December is that bad, I can't WAIT until we get back into the good seasons!Tony Crocker":h2ny3nde said:
For the record, I am putting this December (for me personally, I won't make generalizations for other skiers as we all experience it differently) as very much average so far. One or two more powder days will put it above average and "best in the past 10 years" is still not quite out of the question though some stiff competition there.
I can't make any other recommendations for how to measure for your reporting, but trail counts just don't tell the entire story. There can be low trail counts and great conditions and there can be nearly 100% trails open but hard as a rock.
One thing I give Tony credit for is his reporting for the "average" skier. The average skier isn't going to do what some of us will do for powder. Even if it is a non-cherry picked Saturday... average skiers don't earn turns and play by the rules and don't want to damage their equipment... three things that are requirements for early season powder skiing.
rfarren
New member
Hit hunter yesterday and had the "average" ec weekend as far as the masses are concerned. It's amazing how much snow they make up there. I didn't hit ice once. However, I'm not a huge fan of the man-made. I find it very sticky. Also, I'm not in love with my nordicas, I now think they are too stiff. I talked to a tech guy who said last years Volkl Bridge was the most versatile ski capable of EC conditions. He said this year's with it's rockered tip was not nearly as good.
Just reading the comments and have to agree with both points as yes there is powder out there and yes the official open trail counts are below 50 % . You can find powder if you hike for your turns or ski on closed runs and risk loosing your ticket . Had powder turns all day on Friday as used a vacation day and headed for a area in the Laurentians that picked up almost a foot then skied on closed runs all day on a nearly deserted ski hill ( part of the plan ) keeping a watchful eye out for the patrol . As previously mentioned ,the average skier isn't ready to do all this , so they they will end skiing on limited selection of hard packed runs . This December is starting to pick up as every day a inch or 2 is falling improving conditions on a daily basis .
My detail season progress reports (especially the ones I save online) are typically mid and end of month so I can compare similar dates across seasons. In early season I do them at least once a week because changes in open terrain (in all regions) are occurring more frequently. This year it happened that eastern trail counts were still very low on Dec. 15, but a quick survey this morning shows several areas near or over the 50% mark. So my other chart (http://bestsnow.net/vrmthist.htm), which is tied to weekends should count this weekend as a "B" for 50-80% open with powder/packed powder conditions.
The TR's here are very helpful in making adjustments like this. Just looking at trail counts would likely result in a "C" grade, but the qualitative comments from River and JSpin make it clear to me that it's better than that. Thanks!
FYI the SoCal mountains are continuing with their East Coast weather. 3rd day of rain now, all areas closed except Snow Summit, which is ~20% open vs. 60% a few days ago.
The TR's here are very helpful in making adjustments like this. Just looking at trail counts would likely result in a "C" grade, but the qualitative comments from River and JSpin make it clear to me that it's better than that. Thanks!
FYI the SoCal mountains are continuing with their East Coast weather. 3rd day of rain now, all areas closed except Snow Summit, which is ~20% open vs. 60% a few days ago.
The broad stroke generalization is supported by the long term comparison of the SoCal mountains to the Mansfield Stake:
http://bestsnow.net/snoqlnet.htm
By today the SoCal ski areas will have had as many rain days this month as they normally get during an entire season. 1996-97 was the worst with 9 days of rain. That is still well short of the Mt. Mansfield average of nearly 15.
FYI I've added the Alta/Mammoth/Mansfield snow density graphs to that page.
http://bestsnow.net/snoqlnet.htm
By today the SoCal ski areas will have had as many rain days this month as they normally get during an entire season. 1996-97 was the worst with 9 days of rain. That is still well short of the Mt. Mansfield average of nearly 15.
FYI I've added the Alta/Mammoth/Mansfield snow density graphs to that page.
Marc_C
Active member
While I wouldn't call your counterpoints laughable, they are somewhat myopic or at least rose-colored...
And MRG which had planned to open on 12/15 has this to say on their site:
I met a shocking number of folks from the NE this past week who booked quick, last minute trips to get away from those "great" NE conditions, including quite a few from this forum. Yes, this past week in the NE is a major improvement and it looks like the season is finally kicking in. But realistically, if you were coming from a distance where cost and travel to the Rockies would be the same as going to the NE, would you have booked a NE trip three weeks ago?
It may be a weird metric to you, but it's the one used by every ski area, particularly in the Northeast, to indicate how much terrain they have open.gpetrics":2201a63q said:
If you had to book a one week vacation for the first week of February and commit to spending $2500 today, which major ski region of the country would be the least reliable bet for having good conditions? The east can be incredibly excellent when it's good - there are also an awful lot of rain/hard freeze events. If there's one consistency in the Northeast, it's the number of times per season where ski reports are laden with phrases like "our snowmakers are working hard at resurfacing trails", "groomers are working overtime to open more terrain", "our effort to restart the season...". The NE is one of the handful of areas of the country where snowmaking is a season-long job. I skied in the NE for almost 20 years and while I had ample powder and bluebird packed-powder days, there were also a lot of days spent in condos/bars/shop browsing while it was a 40F downpour outside. I vividly remember one year at our Mad River Valley xmas time share when overnight Sugarbush went from 78 open trails to 2 and MRG closed for a week.gpetrics":2201a63q said:
No, it simply means that someone lives close enough and has enough job flexibility to be able to take advantage of a powder day by deciding to do so at 7am that morning.gpetrics":2201a63q said:
Number of powder days doesn't matter when you have to travel 5 or more hours to get to the powder. Nor does it matter if that powder is on the two open ways down (which at most NE ski areas would be somewhere around 9-15 open trails in the ski report).gpetrics":2201a63q said:
I rode a lift yesterday with a guy from NJ who has a place at Killington - he talked about the week before - the one where the great skiing on 5" of new on Saturday was followed by 2" rain on Sunday, with the temperature falling from 40F to 10F in two hours afterward.gpetrics":2201a63q said:
gpetrics":2201a63q said:
And MRG which had planned to open on 12/15 has this to say on their site:
I met a shocking number of folks from the NE this past week who booked quick, last minute trips to get away from those "great" NE conditions, including quite a few from this forum. Yes, this past week in the NE is a major improvement and it looks like the season is finally kicking in. But realistically, if you were coming from a distance where cost and travel to the Rockies would be the same as going to the NE, would you have booked a NE trip three weeks ago?
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Rob I was at Hunter yesterday too...The place rocked, soft snow , that wasn't sticky. Clair's skied great and k27 was in fantastic shape..
It was a great day, because to have a great day you don't need foot of fresh...
rfarren
New member
jasoncapecod":m4x3pgjo said:
I'm not saying it was a bad day. I definitely thought it was a good day. It skied really well, and we had a great time. I just happen to think that man-made is a bit different than the real thing. I don't necessarily need a foot of fluff, but a pack made from the sky (softer, more consistent) feels a bit different to me than a pack from man made (denser, sometimes a tad sticky). I will say that it may have been my skis...I just am not feeling them anymore, my mantras really spoiled me.
I'm hitting hunter tomorrow, and thursday. It will be nice to have the whole mountain to myself, even though the crowds yesterday were more or less negligible.
This has always been my point in these :snowball fight: like when GPaul for example was asking where to take his spring break (worse odds than first week of February). No dispute at all with the quality reports from this weekend. But the East does not pass the "reserve an inflexible airplane ticket in advance" test for reliability IMHO. Or Christmas week lodging costs either for that matter.MarcC":17rxy1fm said:
I think I speak from analogous experience here. I would never advise skiers from outside the region to commit in advance to SoCal skiing either, epic though Baldy can be on the right day.
Patrick
Well-known member
MarcC":3272o5ia said:
I would stay home at that cost, because that premium is high when there is great skiing to be found within a day drive from where I live. Yeck, with that kinds of money and can fly to SA and ski/stay/eat/drink for 2-3 wks. :stir:
Tony Crocker":3272o5ia said:
Just this weekend? There are more than a couple real good days of skiing in these TRs. And many of them are in the East.
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/
rfarren
New member
Hit it today, it was pretty much empty. Claire's skied well. The lady and I skied hard today. They haven't gotten any snow recently, but they laid down a carpet of white on all but a few trails. On a side note, that new zip-line thingy looks like a hell of a good time.rfarren":3h4o49lz said: