OK, here's the chart for easy reference.
http://bestsnow.net/vrmthist.htm
admin":hoxsp6yb said:
Point being if you're going to keep a rating scale objective you have to compare apples and apples. So if a particular region has a deficiency at a certain time of year it needs to be reflected in that rating scale. This isn't rating on a bell curve.
100% correct
JSpin":hoxsp6yb said:
From my perspective here in Northern Vermont, there’s no way the skiing should be classified as anywhere in the “A” range right now....For any mountain to get an “A”, I’d want to see good to excellent snow surfaces with great coverage boundary to boundary, so I’m not sure that a mountain should ever be getting an “A” if the off piste terrain isn’t yet skiable.
JSpin gets it completely. I require 90+% of terrain open with majority winter surfaces for an "A" grade. No way it's an "A" with Stowe and Sugarbush at 60% today and no Front Four or Castlerock open.
Riverc0il":hoxsp6yb said:
To say that December should never get an A rating because mountains are not 100% open and off piste and sidecountry options are not safe yet is severely under valuing actual conditions.
Incorrect. If you look at the chart you will see in 3 of the past 11 seasons there were at least 2 "A" weekends in December in Vermont.
Riverc0il":hoxsp6yb said:
shouldn't letter grading be done relative to time of year
Absolutely not. One of the key points of collecting data like this is to demonstrate why it's stupid to advance book December skiing (in nearly any region) vs. January - March. Based upon the past 11 seasons the probability of a Vermont weekend rating an "A" grade is:
17% in December
41% in January
48% in February
29% in March
The probability of at least "B", which would probably be my "worth skiing" criterion if I lived in the East:
40% in December
68% in January
85% in February
72% in March
Apples-to-apples comparisons to selected western regions:
The probability of at least "B" in Southern California:
19% in December
39% in January
55% in February
49% in March
The probability of "A" at Mammoth:
43% in December
77% in January
93% in February
78% in March
33% in April
The probability of "A" at Fernie (when Craig Morris was posting for 12 seasons):
42% in December
63% in January
51% in February
40% in March
Note that it rains occasionally in Fernie vs. virtually never at Mammoth.
Not as much data as I'd like for LCC, but since 2004 the probability of "A":
77% in December
93% in January
92% in February
69% in March
42% in April
March/April have averaged 125% of normal snowfall in LCC the past 6 years. The other months have averaged within 10% of normal.