Jay Peak, VT: 03/04/07

[riverc0il]

:shock: \/ =D> :mrgreen:

I am running out of emoticons here! Where is the "perma-grin" emoticon?

Let's just put it like this: if next week's storm turns out to be rain and washes everything away and we don't get any more snow, I will end my lift serviced portion of the 06-07 season a very happy man. This was the day I had been waiting for since the lifts started turning. Easily the best day of the season and a top 5 for my skiing career.

After having skied open to close at Burke on Friday and Cannon on Saturday and really pushed things hard, I originally planned to take it easy today. Probably only ski until noon time or so, then warp up the weekend. One of my little toes has been extremely sore lately from my neglect and abuse, and I knew today would be painful. The original plan was Mad River Glen, but they did not report any new snow from last night whereas Jay reported 8". A no brainer, I changed my plans. Dare I say Jay under reported 8"? Well, maybe that was the official number but the woods were socked full of goodies. When I got to Jay, 8" on the trails sounded about right actually. It proceeded to snow all day long with a few puking sessions thrown in for good measure. Hard to even guess what the total was by the time I left at 4p, but lines were already been replenished for tomorrow.

Here is your warning: Monday at Jay will probably be the best day of the entire season. I really wish I could be back at Jay tomorrow, but I already got Friday off and it is too late to make the request.

Getting my boot on in the morning was a rather painful experience due to the toe. Much grimacing, wincing, and pained expressions were had including a few choice cuss words muttered under my breath as I bowed my head low so no one could see the look of pure agony and pain on my face as the toes set into place. Any other day might not have been worth it, but today was truly a no pain, no gain day.

Got to the Jet slightly after it started turning, so Jet and Haynes were already well tracked, so into the woods I went and I only came out for lunch and the close of the lifts.

Boot Deep minimum with most untracked lines going knee deep in many places with the occasional thigh deep shot. Untracked all day, every single run, from open to close. Crowds were generally light and less than expected, especially at the generally busy 10a Rush. Jet queues never maxed out and only really got half full. Most skiers packed it up and went home around noon time as the place was nearly deserted after lunch. By 1-2p, the Jet was nearly ski on. :shock: Due to low traffic and high snow, lines were beginning to replenish themselves. But why settle for a slightly refilled line when you can ski boot deep fresh untracked at 2p?

\/

This was like Burke February 14th all over again, just with deeper and better quality snow. Not total blower, but generally light. Easy to ski through knee deep even on low pitch but dense enough that you could leverage the snow for speed reduction as needed. Essentially, really good quality snow that felt fantastic. I charged lines hard and fast all day. The snow was really forgiving and allowed for aggressive line choices which felt almost too easy at times. The snow depths at Jay are impressive with everything filled in. Snow banks on Route 242 were above the roof of my car approaching Jay Peak. No pictures. You just do not stop for pictures on a day like this. All and all, a banner day.

 

[BigJay]

Good Job!

I wa really surprise this morning when i woke up and saw the new 8in from last night... Good stuff... Now that the woods are all filled up, it must be amazing!

You always get the goods... Not fare!

 

[riverc0il]

Not always I certainly will not be getting the goods tomorrow. And I have certainly done more Arm Chair trip report reading of powder days than actually skied powder days. But between my location, generally liberal winter vacation day policy, and desire to maximize good days, I am certainly learning how, when, and where to score the goods more often than not.

 

[Patrick]

Not fare!

Good job Riverc0il.

Nice to see people out there taking advantage of Eastern skiing's best. Unfortunately I was sick and sidelined since last Thursday night skiing. Family had a great day skiing local as I was at home recuperating. :roll:

 

[Tony Crocker]

it is interesting how some of the best powder days are "under the radar." This was a weekend, yet where were the thundering hordes? I guess 8 inches wasn't enough to attract them. But 8 inches plus ongoing snow during the day adds up. It sounds somewhat analogous to my President's Day at Solitude, but it's quite clear that you had less competition. Solitude had minimal lift lines but the snow was getting tracked out as the day wore on.

Your (and powderfreak) experiences caused me to give support to an Epic Ski poster from Vermont who complained about never getting powder on his western trips. I pointed out you'll get more powder living within short notice daytrip distance of 250 inches per season than to advance book to 500 inches per season. But we all know that admin has found the best solution to this problem :wink:.

 

[riverc0il]

it is interesting how some of the best powder days are "under the radar." This was a weekend, yet where were the thundering hordes? I guess 8 inches wasn't enough to attract them.

This weekend's storm was not entirely under the radar, but folks just did not show up to play for some reason. I have a few plausable explanations and guesses:

1) The Jay Peak Hype Machine was in full power forecasting "2-3 FEET by Monday evening" days ahead of accululation, as early as Friday night. This could be a "Boy Who Cried Wolf" syndrome and effect. I certainly did not believe it. I planned to ski Mad River on Sunday and I have a Jay Peak Pass. Now if a Jay Peak pass holder does not believe it, what paying customer is going to? Nhski was similarly in disbelief on Sunday, so it was not just me.

2) Backyard Syndrome. The storm changed over to rain very quickly in the Metro areas and down poured for most of the storm on Friday. When it rains, even many regular skiers do not go skiing.

3) Friday totals were much less than expected. The major snow at Jay was not part of the Friday storm, but rather backlash. So people following the Friday storm and/or skiing Saturday did not get the full and best effect.

4) March effect. Most average skiers and families stop skiing at February vacation even though the best skiing in New England is often in March when base depths are highest, temperatures are moderate, and epic storms dump massive amounts of snow.

5) The previous February 17 & 18 storms brought hordes to Jay Peak. Thankfully, I was not there to witness Jay Peak parking cars all the way down to 242 and horrendous lift lines. Some folks may have decided since all the good ski areas are operating with great snow and 100% open, why bother making the long drive to fight the crowds?

Those are my best guesses. But it still does not account for people clearing out at noon time!!! :!: Lines at the Jet around 10a were around half the queue. I have no explanation why the Jet and Bonnie would be ski on at 12 noon on a POWDER day, let alone one of the best days of the season. I know people have a long drive home, but c'mon, POWDER!!!

Your (and powderfreak) experiences caused me to give support to an Epic Ski poster from Vermont who complained about never getting powder on his western trips. I pointed out you'll get more powder living within short notice daytrip distance of 250 inches per season than to advance book to 500 inches per season. But we all know that admin has found the best solution to this problem :wink:.

This is spot on. I have read enough Western Trip Reports to understand that when the west does not get snow, it is as good if not better on occasion staying close to home and watching the weather. At the least, the trip is not worth the money without good snow. A guy I rode a lift with on Saturday at Cannon complained of flying out to Squaw in terrible conditions the same week we got the blizzard. When I manage to scrap together the money to get out west, booking will be no more than one week outside an event. That is the same thing I do in the east when requesting vacation days. Proximately to ski areas does not matter too much, day trippers can do the same thing living three hours away. I used to when I lived in MA. I just was not driving to Jay and did not have enough intimate knowledge to best pin point the best days at the best mountains. I am still learning but have gotten to the point I am right more often than not. Sunday I was spot on

 

[Patrick]

2) Backyard Syndrome. The storm changed over to rain very quickly in the Metro areas and down poured for most of the storm on Friday. When it rains, even many regular skiers do not go skiing.

This logic wouldn't apply to Jay's main market which would be Montreal. Montreal received about one foot of snow and no rain. (This might also explain (besides the Spring Break) why so many Quebecers were at Jay on this weekend.

3) Friday totals were much less than expected. The major snow at Jay was not part of the Friday storm, but rather backlash. So people following the Friday storm and/or skiing Saturday did not get the full and best effect.

I think that stormchasers/watchers are a minority, people see snow (in town sometimes) and it equals to great skiing regardless on the real amounts).

4) March effect. Most average skiers and families stop skiing at February vacation even though the best skiing in New England is often in March when base depths are highest, temperatures are moderate, and epic storms dump massive amounts of snow.

I agree, March is generally the best time price/quality wise in the year. Coverage is the best of the year and deals can be found.

I don't know exactly when the numbers start failling in Quebec average skiers, maybe after this week School Break? This logic also apllies to snow in my backyard syndrome. Neighbours with kids in a ski school program were surprised recently when I told them that we went out skiing pratically every second day skiing locally during the Christmas Holidays, they didn't realised that the ski areas would be open due to the lack of cold weather and snow.

These neighbours were still skiing this weekend, so I guess once the snow disappears in town, they will stop skiing.

 

[stevey]

I can also attest to the awesomeness of Sunday.

1st tracks
7th chair up on the flyer @ 8:35am. Dropped in to whiteout/fogged powder conditions until the mid point of that side of the Mtn. After that - one of the best "on the run" pow lines I've ever had. Not a track in front of me and silky smooth / just deep enough not to feel my edges touch at all riding.

Solid 8" on the runs - way more in the trees - estimated most fresh lines to be between 10"-16".

Rest of the day was just as epic. Wish I could go back today and tomorrow.

 

[steve@jpr]

Actually, Saturday and Sunday were the second busiest days of the season with respect to both paid (ticket purchasers) and earned (purchasers plus passholders) skier visits. With the exception of Black Saturday when we did the biggest number in our history, this weekend rang the bell in a major way. Glad the mtn absorbed folks, but from a financial perspective, it wasn't quite the gloaming you describe.

And as far as the Hype Machine goes, our predictions called for 2-3' between Thursday night and Tuesday am. We underreported. Hype Machine 1, Naysaying Nabobs, well, 0.

And to your suggestion that today may, in fact, be the best of the season; while subjective, you aren't far from the truth. Wind's kicking up now, but between 9 and 11 it was unreal. Knee deep Pumphouse and deeper in other spots.

ok then.

it is interesting how some of the best powder days are "under the radar." This was a weekend, yet where were the thundering hordes? I guess 8 inches wasn't enough to attract them.

This weekend's storm was not entirely under the radar, but folks just did not show up to play for some reason. I have a few plausable explanations and guesses:

1) The Jay Peak Hype Machine was in full power forecasting "2-3 FEET by Monday evening" days ahead of accululation, as early as Friday night. This could be a "Boy Who Cried Wolf" syndrome and effect. I certainly did not believe it. I planned to ski Mad River on Sunday and I have a Jay Peak Pass. Now if a Jay Peak pass holder does not believe it, what paying customer is going to? Nhski was similarly in disbelief on Sunday, so it was not just me.

2) Backyard Syndrome. The storm changed over to rain very quickly in the Metro areas and down poured for most of the storm on Friday. When it rains, even many regular skiers do not go skiing.

3) Friday totals were much less than expected. The major snow at Jay was not part of the Friday storm, but rather backlash. So people following the Friday storm and/or skiing Saturday did not get the full and best effect.

4) March effect. Most average skiers and families stop skiing at February vacation even though the best skiing in New England is often in March when base depths are highest, temperatures are moderate, and epic storms dump massive amounts of snow.

5) The previous February 17 & 18 storms brought hordes to Jay Peak. Thankfully, I was not there to witness Jay Peak parking cars all the way down to 242 and horrendous lift lines. Some folks may have decided since all the good ski areas are operating with great snow and 100% open, why bother making the long drive to fight the crowds?

Those are my best guesses. But it still does not account for people clearing out at noon time!!! :!: Lines at the Jet around 10a were around half the queue. I have no explanation why the Jet and Bonnie would be ski on at 12 noon on a POWDER day, let alone one of the best days of the season. I know people have a long drive home, but c'mon, POWDER!!!

Your (and powderfreak) experiences caused me to give support to an Epic Ski poster from Vermont who complained about never getting powder on his western trips. I pointed out you'll get more powder living within short notice daytrip distance of 250 inches per season than to advance book to 500 inches per season. But we all know that admin has found the best solution to this problem :wink:.

This is spot on. I have read enough Western Trip Reports to understand that when the west does not get snow, it is as good if not better on occasion staying close to home and watching the weather. At the least, the trip is not worth the money without good snow. A guy I rode a lift with on Saturday at Cannon complained of flying out to Squaw in terrible conditions the same week we got the blizzard. When I manage to scrap together the money to get out west, booking will be no more than one week outside an event. That is the same thing I do in the east when requesting vacation days. Proximately to ski areas does not matter too much, day trippers can do the same thing living three hours away. I used to when I lived in MA. I just was not driving to Jay and did not have enough intimate knowledge to best pin point the best days at the best mountains. I am still learning but have gotten to the point I am right more often than not. Sunday I was spot on

 

[Tony Crocker]

I have read enough Western Trip Reports to understand that when the west does not get snow, it is as good if not better on occasion staying close to home and watching the weather.

This is a key difference between East and West. At places like LCC and Mammoth the snow does not deteriorate much during dry spells, and hardly at all in north facing steeps. As I alluded in the Alta post, I have a track record of hitting warm and sunny days on my annual Iron Blosam trip, and I do not feel shortchanged for the quality of the skiing. Doing 20+ days a season of destination trips, I figure I'll get my share of fresh (about 15% in lift-service) over the long run. But the person doing one week a season might go a long time without seeing much powder.

When I manage to scrap together the money to get out west, booking will be no more than one week outside an event.

The airlines will make you scrap together a lot more money if you do that.

Proximately to ski areas does not matter too much, day trippers can do the same thing living three hours away. I used to when I lived in MA. I just was not driving to Jay and did not have enough intimate knowledge to best pin point the best days at the best mountains.

I don't agree with this. Where you are now in addition to proximity you have more flexibility of where to go, like the last minute switch from MRG to Jay. You usually went to Cannon when you lived down there, and it's clear from reading FTO reports that Vermont produces more and better powder days. You can't get the goods in the trees if there's no base, and Cannon has a decent base less frequently than Baldy does.

I am still learning but have gotten to the point I am right more often than not. Sunday I was spot on

Agreed, but we know what that kind of expertise yields in SLC or Seattle!

 

[jamesdeluxe]

When I manage to scrap together the money to get out west, booking will be no more than one week outside an event.

The airlines will make you scrap together a lot more money if you do that.

I think River is booking his flights on Fantasy Airlines.

 

[riverc0il]

thanks for sharing the financials. i am amazed that the mountain absorbed people so well. maybe everyone was riding the flyer and tram or hiking big jay? you say day tickets were the highest? perhaps over nights were down then? doesn't matter to me, i enjoyed the snow.

but as for this:

And as far as the Hype Machine goes, our predictions called for 2-3' between Thursday night and Tuesday am. We underreported. Hype Machine 1, Naysaying Nabobs, well, 0.

you must not have read when this naysaying nabobs wrote earlier in this thread:

Dare I say Jay under reported 8"?

the "Hype Machine" quote was in reference to calling 2-3' days before that total would actually be reached (also, not specific to this event, i always view every jay forecast as hype). a better forecast would have suggested 8" daily for the next few days. that is more realistic... but it also doesn't get people to book weekend vacations. just saying....

but hey, i did say you under reported, just for the record and all...

 

[riverc0il]

I don't agree with this. Where you are now in addition to proximity you have more flexibility of where to go, like the last minute switch from MRG to Jay. You usually went to Cannon when you lived down there, and it's clear from reading FTO reports that Vermont produces more and better powder days. You can't get the goods in the trees if there's no base, and Cannon has a decent base less frequently than Baldy does.

I disagree with your line of reasoning. You are equating my prior lack of desire to drive four hours compared to two hours to a lack of flexibility. Apples and oranges. Back in MA, the decision to choose Jay over MRG would only be an extra 30 minute drive which isn't that bad for epic powder day vs. no fresh snow. I drove to Cannon back then for many reasons including easy drive, but also cheap prices and I was not as much of a powder hound. For the record, I have only been skiing powder since 2002-2003 season whereas I have been skiing since 1983. The price difference was the difference of an average lift ticket cost of $30-40 at Cannon vs. $60 or so at Jay. Back when I lived in MA, I could just as easily switch from one area to the other as I always day tripped. But I did not follow the storms and powder so much back then and I was content at Cannon, especially on a recent College Grad budget (also prior to a promotion to a better paying position and paying twice as much in rent for high price Boston area, btw).

 

[Tony Crocker]

I form most of my opinions on eastern skiing from what I read here, plus my terrain observations in March 2003, when I visited 3 of the consensus top eastern areas (Stowe, MRG and Jay). Only Riverc0il (in his current location) and powderfreak seem to get the powder with any consistency. I believe that both their motivation and location are key factors in their success.

Once you put someone down in southern New England, the drive distances get longer, and more importantly get prolonged on powder days. With the immense advance hype of the Valentine's Day storm, a few diehards prepositioned themselves to get in on the action. But how many MA, CT or NY skiers sniffed out Sunday's goods?

Terrain limitations and capricious weather raise the bar in the East in terms of powder opportunities. We have regulars here on FTO who show how it can be done. But they represent a very small minority of the overall eastern skier population.

 

[riverc0il]

For what it is worth, my last ski season as a Massachusetts resident, I scored nine powder days which is only one less than my current 06-07 season total which includes an October earned turn day.

You hit the nail on the head that the FTO powder hounds are not representative of the overall skiing population (I would add J.Spin to the list of those scoring consistent powder). But it does demonstrate that it can be done. And a look at my last MA 04-05 season shows that it can be done living in the Metro areas. It is certainly a lot harder and takes more dedication, waking up at 5 A.M. and immediately hitting the road versus a 6 A.M. wake up and lounging around the house. But it can be done. 04-05 was really my break out year as a powder hound and set my dedication level for the activity. Looking backwards on prior years, as much as I loved good terrain and good snow, I just didn't have the complete drive and total dedication. A lot of other die hards are out there doing the same thing, just not that many post here. I see them every weekend.

More importantly than location; however, is knowledge of the ski area. My reports would be radically different (and much lower in powder descriptions) without advanced knowledge of the areas I ski most. As Admin and any other Eastern powder hound will surely attest, the snow doesn't last long on the marked runs on a powder day in the East. Putting in time, effort, and research pays powder dividends.

Another important factor is the all mighty mid-week vacation day on short notice. With exception of this past Sunday (an amazing fluke), my best days have always been mid-week without exception. Again, this all comes down to drive and desire.

 

[steve@jpr]

[No message]

 

[steve@jpr]

Nope, I caught your under-reporting riff too, kudos for the honesty; the record stands noted. Funny how when the weather-folk call an event two days out it's called a forecast and when the resort folks offer up the same dish it's called hype; go figure.

And, actually, reporting 8" wouldn't have been a better forecast (or hype as it were), it would have been a wrong forecast. I'd also offer that anyone who was motivated to book a weekend vacation by virtue of us under-hyping 2-3' are probably camping pretty happily right about now.

 

[Tony Crocker]

More importantly than location; however, is knowledge of the ski area. My reports would be radically different (and much lower in powder descriptions) without advanced knowledge of the areas I ski most.

Always helpful, but at some western areas not as necessary. President's Day at Solitude was my first day there in 9 years. I went over that day with admin, and there was only one significant sector of the area that he would say I overlooked. Patrick and I didn't do too badly at Jackson Hole a year ago January either. At someplace like Powder Mt. you could be completely clueless and still get tons of fresh tracks on the right day.

Another important factor is the all mighty mid-week vacation day on short notice.

This is what I do at Baldy. 7 midweek days there in 17 years is not a whole lot, but they include 2 of my top 10 lifetime powder days.

 

[awf170]

I form most of my opinions on eastern skiing from what I read here, plus my terrain observations in March 2003, when I visited 3 of the consensus top eastern areas (Stowe, MRG and Jay). Only Riverc0il (in his current location) and powderfreak seem to get the powder with any consistency. I believe that both their motivation and location are key factors in their success.

Once you put someone down in southern New England, the drive distances get longer, and more importantly get prolonged on powder days. With the immense advance hype of the Valentine's Day storm, a few diehards prepositioned themselves to get in on the action. But how many MA, CT or NY skiers sniffed out Sunday's goods?

It really isn't that hard to get powder when you live in southern New England. You just have to be determined, follow all storms closely, and not mind driving. 90% of the time I miss powder days because of school (5 days a week) and work (4 days a week), not because I live in southern New England. Even if I lived in Northern New England I still would miss a bunch of powder days due to these reasons. Occasionally I just lose determination and would rather ski 6 inches of snow with a 2 hour drive instead of a foot or so with a 3.5 hour drive.

Also, about the Cannon comment: Cannon does usually have a solid base that allows glades and natural snow trails to be skiable between Christmas and early april. That last few seasons have just been nuts.

 

[riverc0il]

I ain't disagreeing that folks that booked for this past weekend or this week are feeling pretty good about it. I ain't disagreeing Jay got a ton of snow. My report says it all regarding the snow conditions at Jay right now. I just can't stand snow reports containing weather forecasts. That isn't particular to this past weekend either, but in general. Nailing the hammer on the head this time doesn't excuse past short falls when a big prediction fizzled and the general issue of predicting big remains an issue, IMO. My original point on the issue was the boy that cried wolf issue... would Jay have been more crowded if people believed the forecast? That is an argument from the position of advocating for better reporting to increase ticket sales and revenue in the long term. Why not just do what Mad River Glen does (the yard stick by which all Eastern Snow Reporting is measured) and link to an unofficial weather forecaster? Heck, have Roemer put up a Jay Peak only forecast on his page... that way it takes the heat off Jay.

The reason I call it hype is the obvious bias towards financial gain. Ski areas (in general, not to only pick on Jay here) play up the most optimistic numbers without giving the full discussion and range of possibilities an honest look (Scott's discussions are particularly engaging, but a short summary could still address all potential out comes). A weather forecast is generally made for people's benefit whereas a ski area forecast is generally made for financial benefit. The opportunity for bias towards big predictions to draw in more revenue is hard to escape, especially at an area in which weekend stay overs are such a big part of the financial picture. Some areas walk this line very well, others don't. There is obviously a damned if you do, damned if you don't line and of course the goal is to increase skier visits (understandable!). But I am being relative here and any comments are only in relation to experiences with other ski areas. I will call a spade a spade, and Cannon for the first time in my memory made a terrible report this Saturday with 8" when only 2-4" actually stuck (but that is reporting, not forecasting, but to the point: my bias is accuracy, not ski area related).

Quite frankly, I would love to have my assumptions and distrust of forecasts reduced if not eliminated. If you follow my other ski area reports, I generally don't make a habit of feeling the need to call out snow reporting. When Cannon was my home mountain, I never felt the need to read between the lines on a snow report or roll the dice on a forecast put up by the ski area. Having a pass at an area, I would love to pull up the snow report page and trust every word and go with confidence to my home area. But on the flip side, at least I can be pleasantly surprised every once in a while like I was on Sunday