Major Winter Storm Details

P

powderfreak

New member
Model data still rolling in. This will be a rapidly changing situation
and I can promise you more updates will be needed tomorrow and nowcasts
will best handle the situation.

For starters...
18z model runs started increasing precipitation amounts.
00z NAM is out so far along with the NGM. Both point to a significant
snowstorm east slopes of Greens, New Hampshire gets slaughtered and so
does Maine. 18z GFS moved northward, I'm waiting to see if the 00z moves
further north. Burlington NWS thinking Warning Criteria snow as far
northwest as Champlain Valley. I'm expecting Warnings for all areas from
the Catskills through all Green Mountain zones and then northeast from
there. Boston now might have precipitation type problems with more
rain/mix than earlier though. Max precip zone has now shifted from Boston
to southweast NH...this is where I'm expecting the best deformation zone
with the low as well...although if the trend continues, this could end up
in the CT River Valley between NH/VT.

New models track low closer to coast, with a stronger low pressure system
just off Cape Cod on Thursday evening as well.

Current Time Frame for storm: Snow breaking out 2-6am Thursday and
shutting down 2-6am Friday.

Just looked at the 00z GFS...not as impressive as the ETA, by any means.
But still a significant winter storm for some. Factor in the GFS's bias
of under-doing QPF and the ETA's bias of over-doing QPF, we'll find the
actual right in the middle. In a winter with not much snow (or excitment)
this will be really nice.

The MM5 runs have been all over the place...the SUNY MM5 18z run looked
great for central VT and even up towards northern VT. Had a deformation
zone from Albany to Berlin, NH. Haven't seen the 00z run yet. Not sure
if I will. Canadian GGEM hits central and southern VT, most of NH, and ME
pretty good as well.

With all this, I know I'll be updating in the morning and throughout the
day tomorrow as time allows. This will be a rapidly changing situation and
I'm still not sold on any exact amounts. I will have some fairly
significant spreads in the most questionable areas (central/northern VT,
northern NH)

So here is my current thinking:
Catskills/Albany/central NY....6-12"
Berkshires/Southern VT(Bennington/Windham Counties)....10-15"
Adirondacks/Champlain Valley...3-8"
Central VT(south of 89)/northern NH...6-15"
Northern VT(north of 89)...4-12"
Southern and Central NH/southwest Maine...12-24"
North of I90 and west of I95 in Mass to NH border...10-18"
Boston metro and north shore east of I95...7-14"

South of I90 I think there will be precip-type problems and accums could
range from 2" of slop to 10" depending on R/S line.

Now, ETA implies higher end of the totals in NY,VT,NH,ME. GFS implies
lower totals. Right now, I'm leaning towards the upper end of all those
ranges.

Will try to update in the morning, stay tuned to the NWS offices as well.

-Scott
 
06z NAM and GFS models are in agreement now. Heavy Snow is likely across
all of upstate NY, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Time frame still looking at 1-6am tonight starting time from west to east
and ending from west to east 1-6am on Tuesday night although if the ETA
has its way, wrap around precip will keep upslope snow going well into
Tuesday. I have now officially become excited about this storm ;)

So many things are coming into play here that are signaling a heavy
mountain snowfall. The upslope component once the low deepens is the
biggest factor. After the low strengthens and passes by, NE winds and
lots of low level moisture, along with dropping temperatures should bring
periods of heavy snow to the mountains...and even valleys. Thursday
evening could actually see the heaviest snowfall in Vermont.

Based on 6z models...I'll increase snowfall amounts but won't go
gangbusters with it. The 12z model data will be crucial because it will
contain new upper air data. We'll also have more mixing to the south.
Even Albany and the Catskills and Berkshires look like they will be a mix
for a time...and if the new GFS is right, they'll have to deal with a fair
amount of rain on the front end of the system.

So here is my current thinking:
Catskills/Albany/central NY....6-12"
Berkshires/Southern VT(Bennington/Windham Counties)....6-12"
Adirondacks/Champlain Valley...6-12"
Central VT(south of 89)/northern NH...10-18"
Northern VT(north of 89)...8-16"
Southern and Central NH/southwest Maine...10-18"
North of I90 and west of I95 in Mass to NH border...6-12"
Boston metro and north shore east of I95...4-8"

-Scott
 
everything that i have looked at this morning is telling me that this thing could be a decent start to our season, considering that most resorts are almost to grass, it looks like april in montgomery.
i hope it turns out according to the models, this sort of storm is a usual occurance in most other winters, right now it is looking like a blessing from the snow gods. showing us some pity for the lackluster conditions we have had to endure throughout this season.

pray for snow, i hope this thing is stuck in the gulf of maine for a while giving us that beautiful wrap around effect with solid snow day after day for a week.

redeyes
:twisted:
 
Sure......We get dumped on and I'm headed to CO for the week. Guess there will be no significant eastern Pow for me this year :cry: . Colorado hasn't been getting a whole lot of snow either. I just can't win.
 
Thanks for such a detailed forecast! The interpretation they give on tv and radio is never like that; where did you get it from?
 
trees101":29u9ffv4 said:
Thanks for such a detailed forecast! The interpretation they give on tv and radio is never like that; where did you get it from?
Click to expand...

Powderfreak is our staff forecaster Scott Braaten.
 
What are the wind predictions for Friday? I had planned to ski Stowe on my way to Jay for Saturday and Sunday. If Jay's tram and GMF are shut Friday due to winds, then the pow should be excellent in the woods on Saturday morning.
 
I can't take it anymore, NH better get slaughtered. I'm going to Wildcat and if there's no snow, I'm going to ski below the quad regardless. All I want is soft powder, not a million bucks, just flippin powder. I explain to my wife, dog and baby to be what it's like to be floating back-n- forth over a rock or mogul. My wife thinks I'm nuts, my dog just wants a treat and that just leaves me with an unborn 3 month fetus.(I pretend he/she understands) Just give me powder!!! For Christe Sake!

Thank you, I feel better now. Anyway, pray for snow. Cheers, John
 
ya im going to wildcat too, hopefully. If i dont have school friday or i can convince my parents i dont have to go.
 
Anonymous":3n7eekyt said:
What are the wind predictions for Friday? I had planned to ski Stowe on my way to Jay for Saturday and Sunday. If Jay's tram and GMF are shut Friday due to winds, then the pow should be excellent in the woods on Saturday morning.
Click to expand...

Good question. I would expect some lift closures on Friday due to winds as the low pressure system deepens. Look for strong NNW and then NNE winds from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Might be able to keep snow going longer in the mountains as well with good orographic lift, low level moisture, and a sustained wind flow.
 
Headed to Bretton Woods on friday.They have an excellent record for spinning the lifts in the wind.
I'll be on ch. 13sub3 if theres anyone out there.
((*
*))NHPH
 
NHpowderhound":1fn5ons5 said:
Headed to Bretton Woods on friday.They have an excellent record for spinning the lifts in the wind.
I'll be on ch. 13sub3 if theres anyone out there.
((*
*))NHPH
Click to expand...

Ironic, that's precisely the opposite of what I use: ch 3 sub 13.
 
Look, for the love of Jake, never, I mean never believe a resorts report. Just watch the local weather reports on the net. If the region is getting 12-16" it's a good bet that the mtns are gettin a bit more. Ignore the resorts report, they ALL LIE. There job is to make $$$, not to make you happy. I'm 35 and skied all over the East. If anyone tells you that some are honest, then they don't know the $$$ side of business.
 
Now that I've said all that, my truck is already packed for a 3am Sat. departure from Plymouth, MA to Wildcat. I think I'll try the creek beds this weekend. As always, there are no friends on powder days. Cheers, John.
 
ya i wanna ski the creek beds to when i go there friday or saterday, they are so much better with fresh snow, but the thing that stinks is all the locals get out there first run on friday and steal all of the powder.
 
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