Next Storm Discussion

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powderfreak

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Several meteorologists have been looking at an upcoming potential storm for Sun-Tue time period in the northeast. The Euro and UKMET models the past few days were showing a heavy precip event with snow to sleet to rain over much of the northeast. The American models (GFS, NGM, ETA) haven't shown anything to exciting...especially the GFS 00z run (12/11). But for those who like pretty colors, I believe that today's 06z GFS model run has shown something that should warrent a new storm discussion on FT's dicussion boards. <BR>Here's the latest: <BR><A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/yrjp" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/yrjp</A> <BR> <BR>What one must consider, however, is if this storm happens, it will be significantly warmer this go around. None of this 40 to 1 ratio stuff and even with all that precip...areas from Binghamton to Albany to maybe even Rutland over to central NH go over to a sleet or rain after several inches of snow. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Yuck Scott. Can't you do better than that? <BR> <BR>;-) <BR> <BR>We had planned to go to Gore this weekend, but we nixed those plans and are hopeful for more snow next week. This was not what I had in mind. Hopefully there will be something for the next weekend. <BR> <BR>I hope your exams are going well. Missed you last night.
 
Hey hey, <BR> <BR>Sorry, I couldn't make the chat, but I have been watching the weather. About all I can do with my knee. Scott I tend to agree, that there will not be 40 to 1 ratios however in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont I think the percipitation will remain in the form of snow. Except along the immediate coast. But, hey there aren't any ski areas on the coast so it doesn't matter. I think the snow to water ratio will be about 8 or 9 -1. <BR> <BR>I also think the models are tending to do overdo this storm, I think we would only see a max of 12 inches out of this one. <BR> <BR>But hey hoepfully I am wrong and we will get more. <BR> <BR>porter
 
The snowlovers along the coast (including yours truly) definatly want more snow!!!! It was interesting to watch 20.5" of snow in my backyard melt away in 3 days time. As much as I wanted to go skiing last weekend, the local roads were in such bad shape and the Port Jefferson ferry was not running due to poor weather. I opted not to go and wait for this weekend. I don't really trust the meteorologists very much right now as they were not predicting the 20+ snow amounts on Long Island, after last weekend I think that anything is possible this winter. At least Sugarloaf got 50" of snow, so it looks good for January vacation.
 
Kevin- Do you live in Port Jeff? I've got family down there and I was wondering how much snow they got out of the last storm yet I couldn't get ahold of them. How much did you get? <BR>Sharon- I'm going to be at Gore a week from Saturday for a few days probably. If we get a couple good snow storms in the next week, Gore could be happening by next weekend. I'll be there the 20th and 21st for sure, and likely the 22nd and 23rd. <BR> <BR>12z GFS: <A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/yt1s" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/yt1s</A> <BR>This is the storm Sun-Mon. <BR> <BR>12z GFS: <A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/yt24" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/yt24</A> <BR>This is the storm Wed-Thur. <BR> <BR>Both of these have been on the models in some way for a few days. It's nor'easter patrol time...I just looked at the NAO forecast and its negative and gonna stay that way which means these things are coming up the coast. <BR> <BR>For this upcoming storm...widespread 6-12 inch amounts with lollipop 12-24 inch amounts in orographically favored areas. This is looking like a classic nor'easter with snow all the way to Buffalo. I'm worried it might get too warm though. UKMET and EURO still look warm enough for rain Albany-Rutland south. I haven't seen their 12z runs yet. <BR> <BR>Gotta study though. <BR> <BR>Later, <BR>-Scott
 
Scott, right now the plan is to skip this weekend and go next (20-21). Maybe we can meet up then. <BR> <BR>I've got a posse of 6-12 people whom I ski with there. You are welcome to hang out with us old folks if you'd like. If you've seen Twig Season, you know what I look like on the snow (and some of the Gore gang as well). I wouldn't be surprised if Guido showed up as well with his video camera. We can all be porn stars! <BR> <BR>Keep the forecasts coming. We've got our fingers crossed for the 20th! <BR> <BR>OH, BTW, my friend who was at Gore yesterday said it was firm and fast and not really of very good quality...lotta rocks. Powder was all gone.
 
I live in Lake Grove, about 10 miles south west of Port Jefferson, my town reported 20.5" from last weeks storm. Generally central Long Island recieved anywhere from 15-20" of snow. The NWS forecast for the storm was totally off, they were still forecasting snow and rain for saturday 12/6, with 3-6" total acumulation and there was already 12-15" on the ground with total blizzard conditions. I was suprised with the amount of snow we recieved especially with costal water temps in the high 40's, I even thought that a stong onshore flow would turn the snow to rain, but that did not happen. A strong negative NAO would be good if it stays around like last year. I recall reading that last year saw the most negative NAO phase since 1948 for the northern hemisphere. Right now its 52F outside and about 85% of the snowcover is gone, just in time for some fresh snow!!!
 
Mondays storm looks like it will have good wrap around action (don't know the technical term) for North Eastern New York and Northern Vermont. Should be very interesting to see how it plays out. <BR> <BR>porter
 
Sharon- I'm sure we could get Marc to come up that weekend, especially if there's a decent amount of snow and a lot open. I don't think Marc's been up to Gore in years IIRC so maybe he needs to see if things have changed ;) <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
"There aren't any ski areas on the coast." <BR> <BR>Camden Snowbowl gets no respect... <BR> <BR>Storm -- looks like Sugarloaf will get some mixing. Ick.
 
<A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/yxta" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/yxta</A> <BR>Pretty colors of the 12z ETA. That's a lotta water falling in the northeast...a lot of it frozen or freezing. ETA blasts this thing inland over southern New England with changes most precip from Central NY through Rutland and up into northern NH and ME to sleet and freezing rain. All snow in the Adirondacks and northern Greens. <BR> <BR>12z GFS is coming out as we speak and I'm betting it takes a more off-shore track to a classic nor'easter position near Cape Cod instead of the ETA's track into Rhode Island. This would mean more snow than sleet, but the GFS should be out entirely within a half hour. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
<A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/yxuz" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/yxuz</A> <BR>12z GFS. Northeast is gonna get slammed again. This is pretty damn cool. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
My latest NWS forecast discussion for my zone has the meterologist (worried ?) that the latest model runs show the storm taking a more southerly track. This would keep the coast in frozen precip longer and translate into more snow than rain for the interior of New England. If the storm stays south of Long Island, I'll get socked again with heavy snow. Sugarloaf's weatherman is predicting 12" + from this next storm. The main problem is the warm up that keeps happening after every storm
 
Looks to me like the iceing line will be from far southern New Hampshire south. I think vermont will be mostly snow and lots of it. Yes, there will not be 40 to 1 ratios however Sunday night lows are in the mid teens which makes for fluffy snow the farther north you go. However in southern vermont, southern new hampshire, and southern maine the snow will be far heavier. The areas in southern vt, nh, and ME will get probably about the same amount of snow as farther north but it will have a greater moisture content. Hoepfully the storm will come with more than a foot to a foot and a half. However the storm for wed.thrus. does look like it will be more of a ice rain event compared to sun. nights storm. <BR> <BR>porter
 
I don't know. In the mts of NH/ME this is not going to be an all snow event. There will be at least a few hours of mixed precip and maybe more. I'd like to see it move about 50 miles further south and east... it well could, but according to ETA there isn't going to be a big artic high sitting around and keeping the storm from barrelling right up the gut of New England. Interestingly though, some of the other models show the high staying put rather than buckling and moving off the the NE... something to watch. <BR> <BR>My guess now is that it is going to be mostly rain along the coast and across most of southern New England. Southern NH, ME, VT will see lots of ice and rain. The northern mountains will escape most of the rain, but will have lots of sleet and a couple of hours of freezing rain that will knock snowfall totals down. 5-8" across most of ski country in NH/ME 12-16" in Northern VT, 6-8" Central Vt. 2-4" Southern VT. <BR> <BR>Update at 11:00 ;)
 
here is the early accumulation map from NECN,<IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3071.jpg" ALT="accumulations"> <BR> <BR>I believe that there will not be very much mixing going on in ski country, just my thoughts
 
Looks like we're going to miss the storm once again <IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/sad.gif" ALT=":("><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/sad.gif" ALT=":("><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/sad.gif" ALT=":("> <BR> <BR>Nothing on the forecast for Sutton on sunday and monday (little possibilities of light snowfalls) <BR> <BR>I hope that the storm will come a little bit northern... like last week <IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/happy.gif" ALT=":)"> (or more northern, please !!)
 
18Z ETA is looking a 'tich colder than then 12Z run did. Looks more in-line with the GFS, which is a good thing. <BR> <BR><A HREF="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p60_072m.gif" TARGET="_blank"> 18Z 60h ETA precip at 72 hours</A> <BR> <BR>1"-1.5" liquid equivalent for the townships, maybe more. I think you're going to do all right Frank. St. Laurence valley may get even more. Got your trails all ready on Mt. Royal and your bus pass handy?
 
Frank, you should not trust canadian weather forecasts for Sutton... I usually check the US forecasts for Jay and they're usually right on for snow accumulations at Sutton. <BR> <BR>Jay Peak itself is usually at 130% of the forecasted amount - and Sutton gets about 80% of Jay's storm total ==> 100% of forecasted amount... <BR> <BR>In fact, Canadian weather services are usually poor at studying Noreasters - probably it's because they so often just glide on the border. <BR> <BR>For this storm, I'd think it's gonna be about a foot or two for Sutton, and decreasing amounts for Glen, Owl's Head, Orf and Bromont.
 
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