Special Meteorological PSA

[DD Powder]

I understand that Powderfreak is the resident meteorologist around here so I don’t want to step on any feet, but as a professional meteorologist I need to call out Jay Peak's marketing on this one. I did not start this thread to provide a detailed forecast for tonight/tomorrow's upcoming event. Rather, to point out the inaccuracies of Jay's snow report which were clearly meant to mislead the general public.

From today’s Jay Peak snow report:

“It was mild again yesterday but we didn’t get the rain we were expecting. Temperature started dropping and once we hit the freezing mark, all groomers were on full force, tilling the surfaces. Surfaces will be variable with machine groomed, frozen granular and maybe a few bare spots on natural snow trails. Our forecast is calling for 2-4” tonight with colder temps and flurries/snow Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night."

This forecast is very misleading as they have conveniently missed the substantial mix/rain between the estimated 2-4” tonight and the flurries/snow Friday night through Saturday. The 2-4” is in the realm of possibilities however all models and forecast guidance are showing warm air at mid levels working into the area causing a changeover to more of a sleet/freezing rain situation for jay during the morning. Surface temperatures will likely be going above freezing by late Friday morning/afternoon changing remaining precipitation to all rain before the cold front passage.

I am not trying to stop people from skiing Jay tomorrow. As most people know around here any day on the mountain is better than just about anything else. I am just giving you a heads up on the weather conditions for Friday that they “somehow” left out. After tonight’s snow expect a mess of mixed precip with sleet going over to rain as the day progresses...end rant.

What are your thoughts Powderfreak?

Finally...fingers crossed everyone for Mondays possible storm.

 

[jasoncapecod]

Hi
i just peaked at the 18z BTV fous.. is jay peak on crack..with a 549 thickness and + values at all levels.. even the 12z gfs was balmy..
The 12z gfs is looking sweet for mondays event but the new ecwmf is backing off a bit.. many more days and runs to go

 

[Patrick]

is jay peak on crack..

I'm not the one saying it. :wink:
:^o :wink:



From what I can see, rain should happen everywhere south of the St. Lawrence River valley, only places where snow AND ONLY snow is forecast for tomorrow are the Laurentians, Quebec City area and further East. Sugarloaf should get some rain also.

 

[jasoncapecod]

I think jay peak and miami have equal chances for snow tomorrow

 

[Harvey]

Hey it's still four days out, and a small variation could make a big difference, but....

...here's some weatherporn:

 

[riverc0il]

Jay has been pretty reasonable this year with their forecasting and reporting. I have called them out a few times but feel that overall they have been reasonable considering their snow reporting is more useful as marketing than actual conditions reporting. Jay has actually been rather frank when they have gotten mix and rain and even once reported getting a "mix" on a day I skied that I felt was never worse than hail and frozen precip with no actually NCP mixed in.

Jay forecasting, and forecasting for the entire Northern Greens chain, seems a little different than standard forecasting from what I have seen. Powderfreak has really dialed himself into the bizarre freak snow events that can happen. I have learned well these past few years that weird freak snow events can happen in the Northern Greens and catch many people by surprise. Those are often some of the best days because they fly under the radar.

That said, with four days out and coming from a resort that has the blessing of Roemer (is he still used for forecasting their?), perhaps that report does leave something out. I am sure Jay will dial in that forecast as the storm approaches... likely casting it in favorable light, but I am sure they will at least mention the chance for NCP if it happens to be the case as we approach the actual storm. This it the buzz and excitement phase of the forecast.

Just remember (as I am sure steve@jpr will remind us soon... ) that Jay does not actually do "forecasting" but merely reports on what the forecasters they trust are saying......

...for what that is worth :lol:

 

[DD Powder]

That said, with four days out and coming from a resort that has the blessing of Roemer (is he still used for forecasting their?), perhaps that report does leave something out. I am sure Jay will dial in that forecast as the storm approaches... likely casting it in favorable light, but I am sure they will at least mention the chance for NCP if it happens to be the case as we approach the actual storm. This it the buzz and excitement phase of the forecast.

River,

Just so we are on the same page, my problem is with Jay's forecast for tonight/tomorrow's storm not the one on Monday.

 

[steve@jpr]

And to further clarify, are we talking about the same reports? I'm at home so I don't have immediate access to Kim who's reporting, but it looks like we're calling for Mixed tomorrow and further identify the day as being weak...

Also calling for 2-4" to net across the weekend which, spot on, is what Tony Vazzano of North Winds Weather is calling for us-he being Jim Roemer's diametric opposite in terms of raw, some say lightly founded, optimism...

Were you maybe looking at a report from earlier today?

That said, with four days out and coming from a resort that has the blessing of Roemer (is he still used for forecasting their?), perhaps that report does leave something out. I am sure Jay will dial in that forecast as the storm approaches... likely casting it in favorable light, but I am sure they will at least mention the chance for NCP if it happens to be the case as we approach the actual storm. This it the buzz and excitement phase of the forecast.

River,

Just so we are on the same page, my problem is with Jay's forecast for tonight/tomorrow's storm not the one on Monday.

 

[steve@jpr]

A quick check to Mad River's home page (last updated at 7:54 this morning) calls for 1-3" tonight. Given their status as the most honest kid on the block, either Machiavelli has entered the building or they were reading pretty much the same report we were.

And to further clarify, are we talking about the same reports? I'm at home so I don't have immediate access to Kim who's reporting, but it looks like we're calling for Mixed tomorrow and further identify the day as being weak...

Also calling for 2-4" to net across the weekend which, spot on, is what Tony Vazzano of North Winds Weather is calling for us-he being Jim Roemer's diametric opposite in terms of raw, some say lightly founded, optimism...

Were you maybe looking at a report from earlier today?

That said, with four days out and coming from a resort that has the blessing of Roemer (is he still used for forecasting their?), perhaps that report does leave something out. I am sure Jay will dial in that forecast as the storm approaches... likely casting it in favorable light, but I am sure they will at least mention the chance for NCP if it happens to be the case as we approach the actual storm. This it the buzz and excitement phase of the forecast.

River,

Just so we are on the same page, my problem is with Jay's forecast for tonight/tomorrow's storm not the one on Monday.

 

[riverc0il]

River,

Just so we are on the same page, my problem is with Jay's forecast for tonight/tomorrow's storm not the one on Monday.

We are on the same page now, thanks for giving me the "You Are Here" directional.... been a long day and I don't even know what book I am reading any more, let alone what page. :lol:

 

[DD Powder]

Our forecast is calling for 2-4” tonight with colder temps and flurries/snow Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night."

Steve,

The quote above was taken directly from Jay's current conditions page and was posted there this morning and was still there this afternoon when I started this thread. It has been changed since.

Also calling for 2-4" to net across the weekend

It clearly said 2-4" for tonight with flurries/snow continuing Friday night-Saturday. Although I never had a problem with the snow forecast, just the fact that mix/rain was never mentioned for tomorrow (Friday) when models at the time with out a doubt showed it.

Ultimately the current snow report does look on the money and thats what matters. It would be a shame if someone took a really long day trip to Jay under the impression of snow tomorrow instead of rain due to a bogus snow report...that's why I was giving people the heads up.

 

[HogbackVT]

I'm sure this may rub some people the wrong way that I say this, but
I find it kind of unfair to the people who intend to ski at Jay...I checked
their snow conditions all the while this whole first half of the
season...and their total snowfall accumulation two weeks ago was
as high as 225" for the season. A week later the number was
revised back down to below 200" just before the thaw...and now
that the thaw has taken hold they even revised it once more...down
to 180". Which is more believable in my mind considering every
other resort up here is right around 160". I ski at smuggs, and they
never hype the snowfall, in fact, they hardly post it at all! Why does
Jay feel they have to psych out their website? I feel like they're almost
known to do this...so stupid. It personally just bothers me they
deceive people who pay good money to ski there instead of somewhere
else, just because of a higher snowfall count that isn't really that much
higher than anywhere else. :roll:

 

[J.Spin]

I'm sure this may rub some people the wrong way that I say this, but I find it kind of unfair to the people who intend to ski at Jay...I checked their snow conditions all the while this whole first half of the season...and their total snowfall accumulation two weeks ago was as high as 225" for the season. A week later the number was
revised back down to below 200" just before the thaw...and now
that the thaw has taken hold they even revised it once more...down
to 180". Which is more believable in my mind considering every
other resort up here is right around 160".

Actually, I find it very interesting that Jay's snowfall for the season has changed (not once but multiple times?) especially since they have the snowfall tracker in place that lets you watch how things progress throughout the season. I don't actually have a hard time believing 225 inches for their season snowfall, since I've recorded 98.0 inches so far at our house in Waterbury (NWS-style 6-hour measurements), but I'd be VERY interested in hearing why the numbers have changed. Were there errors in the recording? Did the recording policy change? I know that Tony follows the snow tracker closely at times, so maybe he has seen what happened, or perhaps Steve could comment on the changes.

 

[steve@jpr]

The reason we've backed off of the season total is because our website dashboard was pulling snowfall from as far back as November 5th which I didn't feel was fair to put into our since-open totals. In retrospect we probably went too far as we wiped out 16" over a 48 hour period right before we opened which, imho, can be argued that--as it was skiable when we opened--could be included.

I'm sure this may rub some people the wrong way that I say this, but I find it kind of unfair to the people who intend to ski at Jay...I checked their snow conditions all the while this whole first half of the season...and their total snowfall accumulation two weeks ago was as high as 225" for the season. A week later the number was
revised back down to below 200" just before the thaw...and now
that the thaw has taken hold they even revised it once more...down
to 180". Which is more believable in my mind considering every
other resort up here is right around 160".

Actually, I find it very interesting that Jay's snowfall for the season has changed (not once but multiple times?) especially since they have the snowfall tracker in place that lets you watch how things progress throughout the season. I don't actually have a hard time believing 225 inches for their season snowfall, since I've recorded 98.0 inches so far at our house in Waterbury (NWS-style 6-hour measurements), but I'd be VERY interested in hearing why the numbers have changed. Were there errors in the recording? Did the recording policy change? I know that Tony follows the snow tracker closely at times, so maybe he has seen what happened, or perhaps Steve could comment on the changes.

 

[steve@jpr]

And, to be fair, what bothers me is when folks launch into an unfounded diatribe without doing iota one of fact-gathering. My suggestion, Hogback, might be to head all the way North before offering up the wherefore and why on resort accumulation vagaries.

I'm sure this may rub some people the wrong way that I say this, but
I find it kind of unfair to the people who intend to ski at Jay...I checked
their snow conditions all the while this whole first half of the
season...and their total snowfall accumulation two weeks ago was
as high as 225" for the season. A week later the number was
revised back down to below 200" just before the thaw...and now
that the thaw has taken hold they even revised it once more...down
to 180". Which is more believable in my mind considering every
other resort up here is right around 160". I ski at smuggs, and they
never hype the snowfall, in fact, they hardly post it at all! Why does
Jay feel they have to psych out their website? I feel like they're almost
known to do this...so stupid. It personally just bothers me they
deceive people who pay good money to ski there instead of somewhere
else, just because of a higher snowfall count that isn't really that much
higher than anywhere else. :roll:

 

[J.Spin]

Thanks for the clarification Steve.

-J

 

[steve@jpr]

10-4.

Thanks for the clarification Steve.

-J

 

[HogbackVT]

And, to be fair, what bothers me is when folks launch into an unfounded diatribe without doing iota one of fact-gathering. My suggestion, Hogback, might be to head all the way North before offering up the wherefore and why on resort accumulation vagaries.

Yes it was a diatribe, but hardly unfounded...just read the responses.
One question...why even allow resort accumulation vagaries? Awesome
wording btw...If we want to know, we don't want to know what it could be...or what it was...we want to know what it is.

 

[riverc0il]

The reason we've backed off of the season total is because our website dashboard was pulling snowfall from as far back as November 5th which I didn't feel was fair to put into our since-open totals. In retrospect we probably went too far as we wiped out 16" over a 48 hour period right before we opened which, imho, can be argued that--as it was skiable when we opened--could be included.

I agree, and this coming from someone that has agressively posted about "pre-season" snow fall totals being added to the season total when the said snow totals melted before start of season. If it contributes to base building and is not washed out prior to opening, it should be counted. Thanks for the explanation.

 

[steve@jpr]

I don't allow vagaries in resort accumulations, those sort of happen themselves by definition. And by unfounded I simply meant that laying out a broad 'all the resorts up here have the same amount of snow' doesn't indicate you've made it this far north.

And, to be fair, what bothers me is when folks launch into an unfounded diatribe without doing iota one of fact-gathering. My suggestion, Hogback, might be to head all the way North before offering up the wherefore and why on resort accumulation vagaries.

Yes it was a diatribe, but hardly unfounded...just read the responses.
One question...why even allow resort accumulation vagaries? Awesome
wording btw...If we want to know, we don't want to know what it could be...or what it was...we want to know what it is.