Utah weather

[skimore]

Any local insight into the weather out that way this weekend thru say Wednesday? Thinking about a last minute trip maybe sat or sun thru midlle of week. I see they are calling for some snow the next couple days and possibly thru the weekend

 

[rfarren]

Snow

 

[Marc_C]

What rfarren said. The other way of looking at it - the weather doesn't matter, as the skiing is better than anything in the northeast right now.

Here's what the Alta 7-day forecast says:

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind between 9 and 15 mph.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 32. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming south.

Thursday: Periods of snow. Steady temperature around 29. West southwest wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Thursday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 16. West northwest wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Northwest wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Periods of snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 10.

Monday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 27.

And if you're a weather geek, here's the current discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY...BRINGING A SERIES WEATHER DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM SITES REPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH...AND THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR
NORTHERN UTAH AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK. BESIDES SOME PVA...THERE
IS A JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN UTAH LOOK FINE.

SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE IMPACTS THE AREA. IN ADDITION
TO THE SHORTWAVE...A 140KT 300MB JET NOSES INTO UTAH...PROVIDING
SOME ADDED LIFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS COULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN
UTAH AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG JUST OFF THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO
STALL OVER UTAH AS THE TROUGH PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

 

[skimore]

What rfarren said. The other way of looking at it - the weather doesn't matter, as the skiing is better than anything in the northeast right now.

I agree

Here's what the Alta 7-day forecast says:

[/i]

and already took a peak at that....but was hoping to hear locally that the chance of snow they are talking about thru weekend and begining of week was more of a reality than possiblity since the last minute airfare isn't a steal

 

[Admin]

The avi forecasters seem to think so, too:

Today we will see increasing high clouds, which will lower through the day. Ridge top temperatures will cool from the mid 20’s this morning to around 20 later in the day. Ridge top winds will blow 15-20 mph from the west with 30 mph winds on the highest peaks. On Thursday, a disturbance on a westerly flow will give us perhaps 8 inches of snow, which may add up to a foot by Friday. Ridge top temperature should cool into the mid teens on Friday and on Saturday ridge top temperatures near 10 degrees with light snow showers. Finally, we have another disturbance for Sunday with several more disturbances on a westerly flow for the rest of the week.

 

[Jcocktosten]

Sounds good - we arrive 10:30 Friday - Need to drop our stuff at our friends house, pick up our gear and be skiing by 1 hopefully

 

[skimore]

Is Park City the only place that lets you ski for free on the day you arrive?

 

[Marc_C]

and already took a peak at that....but was hoping to hear locally that the chance of snow they are talking about thru weekend and begining of week was more of a reality than possiblity...

Um, where do you think we get our information from? Even the Utah Avalanche Center bases their forecast on the NWS forecast.

 

[Admin]

Is Park City the only place that lets you ski for free on the day you arrive?

Yes, but I believe right now is a blackout period. You can check at parkcityinfo.com where you'd have to register for it anyway.

Sounds good - we arrive 10:30 Friday

Have fun, and safe travels!

 

[Marc_C]

Is Park City the only place that lets you ski for free on the day you arrive?

Alta has a "Ski for Free After 3" deal, but it's only for the Sunnyside lift at the Albion base lodge. It services predominantly green circle terrain, although it does provide access to Vail Ridge which has some fun black diamond steeps and trees but is extremely short vertical. OTOH, that lift (along with a few others) operates until 4:30.

 

[skimore]

and already took a peak at that....but was hoping to hear locally that the chance of snow they are talking about thru weekend and begining of week was more of a reality than possiblity...

Um, where do you think we get our information from? Even the Utah Avalanche Center bases their forecast on the NWS forecast.

Yes, but I was thinking that someone out there would have little more of a feel for the forecasts and what the unsettling weather they are calling for could turn into

 

[rfarren]

and already took a peak at that....but was hoping to hear locally that the chance of snow they are talking about thru weekend and begining of week was more of a reality than possiblity...

Um, where do you think we get our information from? Even the Utah Avalanche Center bases their forecast on the NWS forecast.

Yes, but I was thinking that someone out there would have little more of a feel for the forecasts and what the unsettling weather they are calling for could turn into

Bestskiweather.com? They have more of east coast slant in my opinion. However, they are normally on the mark about their forecast.

 

[Admin]

Bestskiweather.com?

:roll:

 

[rfarren]

 

[Jcocktosten]

Is Park City the only place that lets you ski for free on the day you arrive?

Yes, but I believe right now is a blackout period. You can check at parkcityinfo.com where you'd have to register for it anyway.

Sounds good - we arrive 10:30 Friday

Have fun, and safe travels!

Thanks, I can't wait. I am pretty sure it is a black out period on the Park City resorts deal on skiing the day you fly in, we looked into it.

 

[Marc_C]

Yes, but I was thinking that someone out there would have little more of a feel for the forecasts and what the unsettling weather they are calling for could turn into

Not really. You're basically asking for a prediction of localized mountain weather more than 3 days out. It all depends on how things track. We've had forecasts with far less uncertainty predicting 8" - 16", but when the storm arrives it splits and half goes to Arizona and the other half heads to Montana (which happened with distressing frequency last season). OTOH, we've had a forecast 2" - 4" magically turn into 18" when the front unpredictably stalled.

If you come out, you'll probably get some new snow. How much? Your crystal ball is as good as anyone else's! You might even consider it a powder day, although the locals might not. (It's not a powder day if you can feel bottom on your turns.)

 

[skimore]

It all depends on how things track. We've had forecasts with far less uncertainty predicting 8" - 16", but when the storm arrives it splits and half goes to Arizona and the other half heads to Montana (which happened with distressing frequency last season). OTOH, we've had a forecast 2" - 4" magically turn into 18" when the front unpredictably stalled.

Thanks....thats a bit of useful info I would not have got from the forecast. A forecast of 2-4 back here would almost never turn into 18"

 

[Marc_C]

Thanks....thats a bit of useful info I would not have got from the forecast. A forecast of 2-4 back here would almost never turn into 18"

It almost never does here, either. It's extremely rare that the forecasts are that far off the mark. I remember only once in 8 years it being that incorrect, which is why it sticks in my memory. I only mention it because it can happen. The probability of predicting it is less than 0.0001, so no one else is going to magically glean that bit of useful info that you would not have got from the forecast either.

What does occur more frequently is that a front stalls and lake effect kicks in. In those situations, amounts are impossible to predict, but there's usually good indication beforehand that it might happen [Edited to add: and the possibility will be noted in the forecast]. That's not the case with the current set of disturbances on tap.

Or in other words, stop fretting about the weather so much!

 

[jamesdeluxe]

What kind of fares are they quoting for a last-minute flight?

Having grown up in Syracuse, I know that decently-priced flights in and out of that airport are nearly non-existent... and you always have a connecting flight in Chicago, Detroit, or Atlanta.
:evil:

Bestskiweather.com?

"NEVER EVER MENTION THAT WEBSITE ON THIS FORUM."

 

[EMSC]

skimore wrote:
Thanks....thats a bit of useful info I would not have got from the forecast. A forecast of 2-4 back here would almost never turn into 18"

It almost never does here, either. It's extremely rare that the forecasts here are that far off the mark. I remember only once in 8 years it being that incorrect, which is why it sticks in my memory. I only mention it because it can happen.

Wow! Colo forecasts can be and often are way off the mark. I would almost say this current season is the exception, with forecasts being mostly on the mark. But over the years I've seen many "huge" storms with multiple feet predicted only leave a few inches, and also watched "partly cloudy" turn into a foot.

I would guess the people involved at NWS are not the issue, but probably Utah being a western slope type of prediction vs centrally located mtn ranges & east slope being harder to predict?