Utah weather

would guess the people involved at NWS are not the issue, but probably Utah being a western slope type of prediction vs centrally located mtn ranges & east slope being harder to predict?
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You hit the nail on the head..when the flow lines up your in. ie northwest flow for the bcc and lcc. You just have to throw in some instablity and bam, S+..For Colo you usually need to wait for lows to develope etc.. Much harder to pin down..
 
It almost never does here, either. It's extremely rare that the forecasts are that far off the mark. I remember only once in 8 years it being that incorrect, which is why it sticks in my memory. I only mention it because it can happen. The probability of predicting it is less than 0.0001, so no one else is going to magically glean that bit of useful info that you would not have got from the forecast either.
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They predicted as little as 3 inches and as much as 8 for the storm on the 2cd of this march. I woke up expecting 8" but was surprised to read a report that they had gotten 16". IMO I wouldn't worry about getting snow everyday your there. Lots of powder is great, but its a heck of a lot better with good visibility, and some sol. 8)
 
rfarren":1gzqd1vp said:
They predicted as little as 3 inches and as much as 8 for the storm on the 2cd of this march. I woke up expecting 8" but was surprised to read a report that they had gotten 16".
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From the avi report the morning of March 3rd:
...the Cottonwoods, receiving the lions’ share, picked up 14-16” of 7-8% snow. The Ogden and Provo mountains picked up 3-5” with the Park City mountains coming in with about 8-10” of the ‘right side up snow’.

But if you recall, the NWS forecast is "for the Wasatch Mountains south of I-80" - a pretty damned big area compared to that little pocket up at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon, which is a favored location for additional snowfall when the winds are from the NW. Furthermore, the NWS forecast predicted 3" - 8" with the possibility of locally higher amounts. Fairly accurate for predicting a mountain weather event across elevations ranging from 6K' to 11K'.

So going back to skimore's original question, just 'cause we live here doesn't provide us this magic ability to eek somehow hidden data out of the forecast. The best forecast comes from the UAC, as they take the NWS cast and tweak it with their knowledge of the localized areas where folks ski.
 
Flights alone are running $750 and up. I've found some flights+hotel for Sun arrival at 10:45 and redeye out Wed for $850. Would get 3 1/2 days in
 
But if you recall, the NWS forecast is "for the Wasatch Mountains south of I-80" - a pretty damned big area compared to that little pocket up at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon, which is a favored location for additional snowfall when the winds are from the NW. Furthermore, the NWS forecast predicted 3" - 8" with the possibility of locally higher amounts. Fairly accurate for predicting a mountain weather event across elevations ranging from 6K' to 11K'.
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Actually, I was looking at the cottonwood canyons forecast off the alta website. I believe that is run by NWS, but I could be wrong.
 
skimore":scjrw780 said:
Flights alone are running $750 and up.
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I'm sure it'll be good to very good there (and with an Admin-led day or two, excellent), but worth a $750-plane ticket? I'd have a hard time justifying that kind of scratch unless I had a bulletproof forecast.

You haven't been exactly powder-deprived this season. Haven't read the entire thread.... I assume this is your only opportunity to go on a trip like this?
 
rfarren":2yla5bhd said:
Actually, I was looking at the cottonwood canyons forecast off the alta website. I believe that is run by NWS, but I could be wrong.
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Yes, it's an NWS site, and note that it's the Cottonwood Canyons forecast, not an Alta specific forecast; the top of LCC (Alta) can easily get 8" more snow than BCC in a given storm. It can even get more than Snowbird, only a mile down-canyon. For example, current data:

Season snowfall:
Alta - 547"
Snowbird - 445"

Mid-mountain settled snow depth:
Alta - 146"
Snowbird - 139"
 
So, when I ski alta, and use that forecast should I expect more snowfall than what it says? Or, are there weird storms when BCC gets more than LCC?
 
It all depends on the direction of the flow. Alta/Snowbird are favored by a NW flow. Brighton is favored by SW. The Wasatch Back is favored by an easterly flow.
 
jamesdeluxe":20it0z9l said:
skimore":20it0z9l said:
You haven't been exactly powder-deprived this season. Haven't read the entire thread.... I assume this is your only opportunity to go on a trip like this?
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No, but will be going on a couple weeks after this busted weekend
 
rfarren":3171psb1 said:
So, when I ski alta, and use that forecast should I expect more snowfall than what it says? Or, are there weird storms when BCC gets more than LCC?
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Yes.
No.
What all of us ex-pat northeasterners are really trying to say is stop obsessing about the weather here, like you're used to doing for your VT, NH, and ME trips. It's just not necessary. 8)
 
Marc_C":1kntlh62 said:
rfarren":1kntlh62 said:
So, when I ski alta, and use that forecast should I expect more snowfall than what it says? Or, are there weird storms when BCC gets more than LCC?
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Yes.
No.
What all of us ex-pat northeasterners are really trying to say is stop obsessing about the weather here, like you're used to doing for your VT, NH, and ME trips. It's just not necessary. 8)
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Like I've said before on previous threads, I don't worry about the weather too much when I go out to Utah. Sometimes I get powder, other times not. I've only had one bad ski day in Utah, and that was my fault for choosing the wrong resort on the wrong day.
 
rfarren":mgyao50b said:
Marc_C":mgyao50b said:
rfarren":mgyao50b said:
So, when I ski alta, and use that forecast should I expect more snowfall than what it says? Or, are there weird storms when BCC gets more than LCC?
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Yes.
No.
What all of us ex-pat northeasterners are really trying to say is stop obsessing about the weather here, like you're used to doing for your VT, NH, and ME trips. It's just not necessary. 8)
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Like I've said before on previous threads, I don't worry about the weather too much when I go out to Utah. Sometimes I get powder, other times not. I've only had one bad ski day in Utah, and that was my fault for choosing the wrong resort on the wrong day.
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Or maybe I should have said No, Yes, Maybe!
 
EMSC":20spahvw said:
skimore wrote:
Thanks....thats a bit of useful info I would not have got from the forecast. A forecast of 2-4 back here would almost never turn into 18"

It almost never does here, either. It's extremely rare that the forecasts here are that far off the mark. I remember only once in 8 years it being that incorrect, which is why it sticks in my memory. I only mention it because it can happen.
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Wow! Colo forecasts can be and often are way off the mark. I would almost say this current season is the exception, with forecasts being mostly on the mark. But over the years I've seen many "huge" storms with multiple feet predicted only leave a few inches, and also watched "partly cloudy" turn into a foot.

I would guess the people involved at NWS are not the issue, but probably Utah being a western slope type of prediction vs centrally located mtn ranges & east slope being harder to predict?
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Telluride NOAA weather are NEVER right. NOAA does not seem to even understand how the San Juans are a big circular blob of mountains that shield/exaggerate snowfall depending on the prevailing storm track.

Telluride gets nailed be any NW flow storm. They are 1st after Salt Lake. However it underperforms with S flow storms. Yet 2x with NW flow.

The Colorado mts are poorly understood.
 
I feel so, uh..."foofy."

FYI for any visitors today's snow line will be up around 7000 ft. That means all snow at the 4 Cottonwood Canyons resorts but rain on roughly the lower 1000 ft of the Park City resorts and Snowbasin. All should be snow tomorrow. This is actually good news, as the storm will be "right-side up" with the dense "non-foofy" stuff down low to cover any crust and the lighter snow on top.

And jamesdeluxe, love the new avatar!
 
About when, i.e. what month, do most of the storms that hit the wasatch go from being snow to rain? Does it rain a lot up there in the summer? Or does the pattern change, and it there is very little precipitation? I ask this, not because I'm worried about the upcoming snow conditions, but rather because I want to better understand Utah weather systems better.
 
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