The guys at Eastern have been tossing this one around for almost a week now, but it appears as though this next storm has gained enough credibility for the Burlington NWS to make a special alert on
their homepage, so I figured I'd give folks the heads up. This event looks like it could be more substantial than the other couple of events we've had this month, and may get the valleys involved. I'm sure Powderfreak will be coming out with his thoughts at some point, and I'll pass them along if he doesn't have time to post here. For now I've just pasted in some alert and discussion from the BTV NWS below, but with the way they are talking it could be something to plan for in terms of earned turns, or even travel depending on how substantial the valley impacts are going to be:
000
FLUS41 KBTV 270850
HWOBTV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-280900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
450 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE OVER CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...
BUT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH VALLEY LOCATIONS
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO PROVIDE SNOWFALL REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON.
$$
WGH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 270853
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...INCR CLD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDY
AS -RW ACTIVITY WORKS INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HRS...CD
AIR OVERNGT WILL ALLOW SOME BRIEF MIX TO -SW...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR
TRRN. 850 0C TEMP LINE DOES WORK INTO THE CVLY OVERNGT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SETUP OF SIGNIFICANT WX FOR TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 453 AM EDT MONDAY...MDLS STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR TROUGH TO
DIG DEEP ALONG THE EAST COAST. DIFF HAVE SHOWN UP SINCE LAST NGT
RUNS IN THAT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG BASE OF TROUGH NEAR
DELMARVA...AND LIFT N ON TUESDAY. CURRENT PATH NOW HAS SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO NEW ENG TUES/TUES NGT...AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL SETUP UP POTENTIAL SIG WINTER
WX EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTNOON TUESDAY ON INTO WED.
SLIGHT MDL TRACK DIFF WILL MEAN BIG DIFF FOR HEAVY BANDS SNOWS THAT
MAY DEVELOP FROM THE DACKS ALL THE WAY TO NC NE VT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW IN HIGH QOF FROM ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED...THUS ADDING TO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS. LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO START AS -RW FROM
CVLY EAST AND MIX TO THE WEST DUE TO SETUP OF 850 TEMP LINE OVER
THE CVLY. THIS ALLOWS FOR TRANSITION OF -RW TO ALL SW BY EVENING
HRS FROM HE HIR ELEV DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNGT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORN. BY WED...SYSTEM IS N OF THE CWA PUTTING CWA
UNDER NW FLOW FOR CONTINUANCE OF -SW...ESPECIALLY IN N VT.
EXPECTING BULK OF SNOWFALL TO ACCUM FIRST IN N NY THEN SHIFT TO NC
NE VT BY WED MORN AS NW UPSLOPE WINDS KICK IN FOR ALL OF WED.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS HIGH...ESEPCIALLY IN HIR ELEV. BECAUSE OF
DIFF TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE NEXT RUN TO FINETUNE
NUMBERS FOR UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS UPCOMING STORM IS THAT MANY TREES ACROSS
THE REGION MAY STILL HAVE LEAVES UPON THEM. IF HEAVY SNOW DOES
OCCUR OVER THE REGION...THESE LEAVES ON TREES MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
COLLECT AND POTENTIALLY DUE DAMAGE TO TREES/LIMBS.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT MONDAY...REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AFTNOON. W/ NW FLOW STILL
PREVALENT OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT NE VT WED NGT
INTO THURSDAY MIDDAY W/ LINGERING -SW...TAPERING OFF INTO THE
DACKS. SFC RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER REGION FOR REST OF THURSDAY
ON INTO FRI MORNING. RIDGE WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
ALLOWING WAA TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON WSW WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO GO ABV NORMAL AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IN
TURN SLIDES DOWN ONTO THE CWA AS A BACKDOOR CD FRNT. EXPECTING -RW
AT THE ONSET LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN OVERNGT INTO SAT MORN AS TEMPS
FALL...A CHANGE TO MORE OF RW/SW MIX. N FLOW/CAA BEHIND FRNT WILL
KEEP CLD COVER AND CHANCE FOR --RW/--SW FOR MUCH OF CWA...BFR NEXT
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OUT OF GREAT LKS REGION INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY.