Vermont Snow Updates 2010-11

[J.Spin]

Temperatures warmed up above freezing at all elevations in Northern Vermont at the end of last week, so we waited for the powder to build up over the long weekend before finally heading out this afternoon for turns. We had three small systems that dropped snow over the holiday weekend; down at the house we picked up 3.7 inches of snow in the form of 0.21 inches of liquid, and Bolton was reporting 5 inches of snow in the higher elevations.

Temperatures seemed a little cold and the new snow not quite deep enough for lift-served skiing, so we checked out the powder on the Nordic/backcountry network. We found 3 to 4 inches of settled powder in the lower village portion of the network at around 2,000’, and up at the Bryant Cabin (~2,700’) the depths were 4 to 5 inches. That whole area is generally quite sheltered, but we did find a few drifts with depths up to around 15 inches.

One would definitely be touching down to the old surface if they skied steep terrain, but we skied low and medium angle terrain on the Nordic/BC network today and the powder turns there were excellent. Since there were just some warm temperatures and not any real rain to speak of, there wasn’t really a slick concrete crust on the old snow. The typical sub-surfaces we encounter in the backcountry were more like Styrofoam, or spongy sugar, with an occasional scratchier spot as well. There is certainly a thickening of the snow in the upper layers of the snowpack due to the warming, but upon investigation I found that it was easy to punch through that with a pole down to powder, or something unconsolidated and equivalent below. The transition between the old snow and the new also seems to have been helped out by some rather dense snow that fell first when the temperatures were coming down below freezing in the Friday/Saturday period. Thanks to this layer, with moderately fat skis we found turns to be mostly bottomless in undisturbed areas of powder, as long as one didn’t get beyond medium angle terrain. I’m not sure how lift-served skiing has fared, although I don’t think the surfaces we saw would hold up to too much traffic without some grooming. Our next substantial storm may come at the end of this week, although the track of that one seems far from locked in, so we’ll have to watch it closely. I’ve added a couple of images from today below:

 

[Anthony]

Will be back down in VT (Bolton Valley /MRG) on Monday for 4 days so will see how this latest round of weather systems play out . Current model forecasts call for a tight course between snow , snow/rain ,rain . With borderline temps in the forecast ,elevation could be key in where the snow falls . One of my kids was at Jay last Sunday and advised conditions were rock solid and wind blown.

 

[J.Spin]

Will be back down in VT (Bolton Valley /MRG) on Monday for 4 days so will see how this latest round of weather systems play out . Current model forecasts call for a tight course between snow , snow/rain ,rain . With borderline temps in the forecast ,elevation could be key in where the snow falls . One of my kids was at Jay last Sunday and advised conditions were rock solid and wind blown.

We haven't been on piste since the warm days at the end of last week, but I've heard comments about hard snow from some folks. Bolton's BC was quite nice on Monday though; I would have suggested just going with a healthy dose of BC on your trip to get in some great skiing, but there is a train of additional storms coming (one Friday, another Sunday, another Monday, and another Wednesday) with varying levels of warmth and intensity, so on piste areas will be getting quite a resurfacing. The only system that doesn't look to be all snow at this point is the Monday one, so with your current trip schedule you might have to play it by ear in terms of getting the best skiing. There's certainly going to be a good shot of liquid equivalent going into the snowpack though, I'd have to say at least a couple of inches.

 

[J.Spin]

As I mentioned in my response to Anthony above, various storms are expected to come through the area in the next week, with the first one tomorrow. It’s not a huge storm, but the area is currently under a Winter Storm Warning for that one. It could provide perhaps a foot of snow for the local mountains, but it’s a third synoptic storm for the area and should be a good shot of liquid equivalent for a resurfacing. The second storm is a smaller, clipper-style system that comes through on Sunday. The Monday storm could also be pretty big, but looks to be the warmest at this point, and then the Wednesday system is another clipper. I’ve added a couple of BTV’s graphics for the first event below:

 

[J.Spin]

I headed up to Bolton this afternoon with E and the boys once the powder built up to do a bit of storm day skiing. When we first arrived at around 1:00 P.M. the snowfall was moderate and the flakes were fairly small, but flake size and snowfall intensity picked up through the afternoon. I did a few depth checks on the powder around the mountain in the 1,500’ – 2,500’ Timberline range; the first was about halfway down Spell Binder where I found 11 inches, next was on Twice As Nice where I found 10 inches, and then another was at the top of Adam’s Solitude where I found 13 inches. The deepest measurement I found was outside the Corner Pocket Glades at 17 inches. It wasn’t drifted, but it probably represents an area that hasn’t been touched since both of last weekend’s systems and this one. Bolton came in with an evening update of 12 inches for their accumulation, which seems pretty consistent with what I was picking up. We’ve had some additional snow this evening, so they’ll probably end up with a storm total a little above that. It wasn’t an outrageously deep storm by any means, but the snow was reasonably blower, coming in at around 5 to 6% H2O based on my analyses down in the valley. Unfortunately, the snow was dry enough that it meant the skiing wasn’t completely bottomless; but as the day went on it was getting pretty close even on the steepest terrain if one had untracked snow.

 

[J.Spin]

With the snowfall complete for this area, Bolton is reporting a storm total of 16", and down here at the house we picked up 10.5” Snow comprised of 0.54” of liquid.

I’ve added 24-hour/storm totals below for some of the Vermont resorts that have reported in so far; the list is north to south:

Jay Peak: 9”
Burke: 12”
Smuggler’s Notch: 10”
Stowe: 13”
Bolton Valley: 16”
Mad River Glen: 9”
Sugarbush: 10”
Pico: 14”
Killington: 14”
Magic Mountain: 14”
Stratton: 15”
Mount Snow: 14”

Totals were a bit up and down north to south, although it looks like there was a pretty steady 14-15” of accumulation in the southern half of the state. The Bolton/Stowe area seemed to have similar totals, presumably with less liquid equivalent and higher snow to water ratios.

 

[J.Spin]

I headed up for an early, pre lift-service session at Bolton this morning with Stephen and Johannes. We ascended Twice As Nice and hit Spell Binder for first tracks. On the headwall the snow was a little tricky due to some mid-storm skier traffic yesterday, as well as the wind that had picked up in the evening.

The skiing was still decent, even if not entirely bottomless on the headwall. Once we were lower down and out of the wind, the snow quality took a big jump up and anything untracked was just what one would expect. It wasn’t the lightest of the light in terms of Northern Vermont Champlain Powder™, but my analyses from yesterday indicated 5-6% H2O at our place down in the valley, and I’d say it easily skied like that as long as the wind hadn’t gotten to it:

I headed back to the house for a bit after that session, picked up E and the boys, and we caught up with Stephen and Johannes later in the morning to hit the powder for the rest of the day. We had some light snow and sunshowers in the later morning and early afternoon from yet another small weather system that was pushing through, and then more sunshine as the afternoon wore on. We got into plenty of that famous Vermont fluff, and all the boys seemed to have a good time:

We’ve currently got some decent snow falling outside the house here in association with our next system in the queue. This storm is smaller in scale than the last one, but should freshen up the slopes for tomorrow. So, for anyone that is thinking of coming up, that’s where things are at. We’re planning to be at Stowe tomorrow, so barring any changes in plans I’ll pass along an update from there. Another big synoptic storm would be nice to further bury any of the firmer snow that had formed after the warm weather a week or so ago, but everything is in basically in prime midwinter shape so there’s not too much to complain about. The storm coming through Monday still looks to be the warmest of the series, so we’ll just have to see how it plays out.

 

[j howard]

wow, it must just be so fun to be that good and that short! face shots all the time! i'm 6'1", and it takes some deep snow to get in my face. props to you for getting out with your boys all the time, teaching them how to rock it, giving them primo gear to shred on, and keeping us in the loop with the snow totals. between you and josh fox, i've made the 5hr drive chasing storms successfully.... still need to make it up this year though

 

[J.Spin]

We were up at Stowe today for our usual Sunday session, and since it’s the tail end of vacation week, many people were absent. Our group had just Ty, Jack, and Dylan, but we also had Mike Cannon as one of the group’s coaches, and with his immense knowledge of Spruce and Mansfield he brought us to plenty of great shots. Not too surprisingly, we found conditions to be much like Bolton’s, with untouched areas typically yielding between 12 to 18 inches of powder. We skied glade after glade with Mike, and the steepest and highest traffic areas are certainly down to the firm base leftover from those couple of warm days a bit over a week ago. However, outside of those spots it was easy to find areas with either untracked or soft chowder.

The next synoptic storm is now on the doorstep, and winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are up in the North Country. This one is still the warmest of this series, but doesn’t seem like it will be too much of an issue for the snowpack; the current NWS forecasts for the mountains around here call for snow with some sleet. Presumably it’s all going to be dense, so it should be another good shot of liquid equivalent for the snowpack. Looking ahead there’s a smaller event midweek and then potentially another large storm next weekend.

 

[Anthony]

Down in Burlington after a drive from Quebec through snow , sleet, rain and freezing rain. Every change in elevation during the drive changed the precipitation so hoping some snow fell up in the greens as pretty grim weather wise in Burlington with rain and fog. Will go to Bolton tomorrow .

 

[Patrick]

Snow only in downtown Ottawa. A bit of sleet reported from areas south of the city like the Airport. Maybe 6 inches on the ground, maybe more, maybe less.

 

[J.Spin]

Down in Burlington after a drive from Quebec through snow , sleet, rain and freezing rain. Every change in elevation during the drive changed the precipitation so hoping some snow fell up in the greens as pretty grim weather wise in Burlington with rain and fog. Will go to Bolton tomorrow .

Looking at the Bolton Valley snow report on their website, it doesn't sound like there were any major issues in the mountains around here in terms of this storm, but hopefully we'll hear what it was like. Powderfreak has added a Stowe update with pictures in the NNE thread over at Americanwx.com and the skiing looks great. There was certainly some sleet with the snow, but no liquid and it looks like it was a really nice shot of liquid equivalent for the snowpack - the Mt. Mansfield stake report indicated 1.0 inches of liquid and we picked up 0.6 inches of liquid down at our house in Waterbury. The next snowstorm in the train is still on track for tomorrow; as of noon today Powderfreak was thinking as much as 6 inches of fluff for the mountains. Hopefully you'll get some fresh stuff to enjoy on your trip.

 

[Anthony]

All day yesterday was doing the calculation of drop in temps vs elevation ratio hoping that the elevation of the Greens would protect the snow from the borderline temps of the St. Lawrence valley and Champlain Valley . Turns out the elevation saved the day as the snow at Bolton was dry and powdery with just a very thin crust at the lower elevations. The groomers were dry packed powder while off trial skied very well. Skiing off trail from the Wilderness lift was deep and soft snow. Lot of it was still untracked. Measured at least 4 feet in depth on skiers right off Wilderness. First time have been to Bolton with the wilderness lift running so it helped not walking over -more skiing.Good skiing also off Timberline with the best off skiers left in the woods . Story in the Burlington Free Press today that the February snow depth is a record for the area , after skiing today would have to agree.

 

[J.Spin]

All day yesterday was doing the calculation of drop in temps vs elevation ratio hoping that the elevation of the Greens would protect the snow from the borderline temps of the St. Lawrence valley and Champlain Valley . Turns out the elevation saved the day as the snow at Bolton was dry and powdery with just a very thin crust at the lower elevations. The groomers were dry packed powder while off trial skied very well. Skiing off trail from the Wilderness lift was deep and soft snow. Lot of it was still untracked. Measured at least 4 feet in depth on skiers right off Wilderness. First time have been to Bolton with the wilderness lift running so it helped not walking over -more skiing.Good skiing also off Timberline with the best off skiers left in the woods . Story in the Burlington Free Press today that the February snow depth is a record for the area , after skiing today would have to agree.

I think I know the article that you are talking about, but that one is about the record February snowfall in Burlington, not snow depth. Powderfreak alerted us that Burlington was getting close to a record February snowfall over in the NNE thread at Americanwx.com. According to the Burlington National Weather Service, the snow depth in Burlington yesterday was at 15 inches; they don’t provide a departure from average for that number, but that’s definitely not a record. In the mountains, snow depths are actually about average right now based on the snow at the Mt. Mansfield stake. I’ve added in the latest Mt. Mansfield plot from SkiVT-L below, and you can see that while there have been some ups and downs and the depth is currently a few inches above the average, it’s hard to find a more average looking trace than what is currently shown on there.

Yesterday’s report from the stake indicates a snowpack depth of 72 inches, but last year on March 1st it was at 102 inches; that’s when things really start to disappear. While the snowpack in the higher elevations is probably about normal, there has been a lot of talk about how the lower elevation snowpack on the western slopes has been better than usual this season.

 

[Anthony]

Thanks , that is the article that I was making reference to. Today , headed over to MRG as my son wanted to Telemark so goods place as any to give it a try . The conditions at MRG were bit more hard packed than at Bolton but still ok for holding a edge. Conditions improved in the afternoon as passing snow squalls added about 2 inches of snow to the base which helped out the skiing on the classic bump runs ( Chute , Catamount etc }. From the summit of Stark Mountain could see that snow squalls were rolling all over the Green Mountains as the summits of Camels Hump and other Northern summits were obscured in clouds and snow showers. Tomorrow , will head back over to Bolton .

 

[Anthony]

Arrived at Bolton at around 9.30 this morning , conditions were posted as wind blown hard pack and powder . The couple of inches that fell on Wednesday was blown around quite a bit overnight so the open areas were more or less hardpack with pockets of powder snow. Skied the Timberline area in the morning which wasn't bad but felt the snow was probably better somewhere else as with all the wind it has to end up somewhere. Hiked up to the Wilderness area , with the lift closed had the whole place to ourselves . Good snow in this area as the lift has been off since Tuesday. The suprise of the day was finding good powder snow blown into the Cobras woods area as guess the few skiers there today never noticed the entrance . Climbed the observation tower at the top of Vista and noticed guys skiing down the back side of Bolton (Woodward Mountain Trail) . With no knowledge of this area did go in but it looked like good powder just from my observations . Overall , good day out in the mountains.

 

[J.Spin]

Thanks for your updates Anthony, it sounds like you guys had a pretty nice trip and it’s nice to get the midweek updates on the conditions.

Our next storm is coming into the area this weekend. It’s another fairly warm system, but the BTV NWS has winter storm watches up and there’s plenty of moisture with it, so it could be a foot or two of snow for the higher elevations. It looks like the northern valleys will also get into the snow however. I’ve added in BTV’s latest advisories and storm total snow forecast maps below:

 

[J.Spin]

We had a little light snow activity in the morning today, but nothing that would really turn it into a powder day. However, it turned out to be a great opportunity to head to Cochran’s for their special 50th anniversary celebration. They had 1961 throwback ticket pricing, so tickets were just 25¢ per person. Everyone in the family went Tele, and the boys had fun working on their turns. Cochran’s is 9 miles down the Winooski Valley from our location, and the base elevation is fairly low. At only 500 feet, it’s at the same elevation as our house. Being down in the lower elevations, I’m not sure where temperatures were at in the high country today, but at Cochran’s and in the other lower elevation valleys they were in the 40s F. We only skied on piste, but the snow was a good soft consistency, certainly somewhat spring-like, and it offered great carving.

A storm is still on track to come into the region tonight and tomorrow, and winter storm watches in the area have been upgraded to winter storm warnings for 8 to 16 inches of accumulation. The point forecast as of this afternoon for the higher elevations of Mt. Mansfield is for 8 to 12 inches tomorrow, 4 to 8 inches tomorrow night, and then some additional snow on Monday and Monday night. Our plan is to be at Stowe tomorrow, although we may base our schedule on when the freezing level drops. If we get to make turns I’ll send in a conditions update. Below, I’ve added a couple of BTV’s updated graphics for tomorrow:

 

[J.Spin]

E and her co-director decided to cancel ski program at Stowe today due to so many parents being concerned about the large incoming storm, so I popped up to Bolton for a bit this afternoon to see how some of the new snow was taking hold. The conditions were actually quite nice, as the new snow is dense and it seems to be bonding to the old snow as it cools down. I skied Hard Luck, which is fairly steep, and although I was certainly touching down on the old snow at times, even that was reasonably pliable and the new dense stuff was providing quite a ride even on pitches in the 30-degree range. I didn’t get any images of the new snow from up on the mountain, but I grabbed a shot out back at the house when I was making my observations at 4:30 P.M., and it was pretty representative of how the trees were starting to look up on the mountain:

It sounds like conditions will be going from good to great based on the current forecasts anyway; the latest discussion from the Burlington NWS this afternoon suggests that snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet will be possible across a good portion of the region through tomorrow when this storm cycle winds down. While not a super huge event, the snow will likely contain a lot of denser, standard synoptic snow as opposed to being just Champlain Powder™, so it should be good in terms of helping out the snowpack as we move toward spring. Also, since this area had been out of the synoptic storms for so much of the season, this could represent the first synoptic storm to really set a bull’s-eye on our area. After a midweek lull, another storm of this type could be on the way for the end of the week into the weekend. I’ve added a couple of the updated accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below:

 

[J.Spin]

We haven't been out on the slopes yet this morning, but we're getting close to 20" of new snow down here at the house, so the mountains are probably doing well. I've added an update below in the form of my report to Americanwx this morning:

Monday 3/7/2011 6:00 A.M. update:

Event totals: 16.7” Snow/2.89” L.E.

In the 7.5 hour block from 10:30 P.M. last night to 6:00 A.M. this morning, 9.9 inches of snow fell at this location, indicating an average snowfall rate of 1.32 inches/hour during that stretch. The collection interval was longer than a 6-hour period, but that 9.9 inches of accumulation was the largest individual stack I’ve measured this season, exceeding the 7.7-inch stack from back on January 12th. That January 12th stack was actually from a 10-hour interval, so last night was quite potent in terms of snowfall. This storm has been comprised of fairly small, synoptic-style flakes, and that is evident in the fairly trapezoidal structure of the stack from this morning:

It is interesting to note that the overnight accumulation contained exactly 1.00 inches of liquid, and with the fairly standard ratio snow (10.1% H2O) was perhaps the most liquid I’ve pulled from a stack. My 68 mm-diameter core sample contained 92.25 mL of liquid. The liquid event total for this event was 2.89 inches as of the 6:00 A.M. report, and I broke it down in my CoCoRaHS report comments this morning:

“T=21.0F, Sky=Heavy Snow (1-8mm flakes); storm total liquid is currently 2.89" obtained from 1.07" rain through 11:30 A.M. yesterday (3/6) followed by 1.82" as snow through 6:00 A.M. today (3/7)”

This storm is already the third largest event of the season, and with the snow on the board outside it looks like it will move into second position past the 18.0” event from early January. Also of note is that this storm has raised the snowpack here to 36.0 inches, which is the highest depth attained yet this season.

While the flakes have generally been on the small side with this event, they have become notably larger now, so I’d suspect the next round of analysis to indicate a density somewhere below 10% H2O. Flakes were up to ~8 mm at the 6:00 A.M. observation time, but now there are some twice that size, up to ~15 mm.

On a seasonal note, this storm has now produced more snow than the past two Marches combined, which only totaled 14.7 inches here. Also, with this event, winter '10-'11 has now moved up into the range of where the '07-'08 and '08-'09 La Niña seasons were at this point. At 170.6 inches as of the 6:00 A.M. observations today, this season has actually just passed '08-'09 (170.4” on this date) and is about 9 inches behind '07-'08 (179.3” on this date).

Here are the numbers I’ve seen from the VT ski areas so far with this event, the list is from north to south:

Jay Peak: 26”
Burke: 15”
Smuggler’s Notch: 21”
Stowe: 17”
Bolton Valley: 17”
Mad River Glen: 10”
Sugarbush: 18”
Middlebury: 14”
Pico: 9”
Killington: 9”
Okemo: 4”
Bromley: 0”
Stratton: 2”
Mount Snow: 0”

Totals clearly fell off to the southern part of the state due to the rain/mixing.

BTV has updated their accumulations maps so that they are more in line with the expected totals, so I have added a couple of their recent graphics below:

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:
New Snow: 9.9 inches
New Liquid: 1.00 inches
Snow/Water Ratio: 9.9
Snow Density: 10.1% H2O
Temperature: 21.0 F
Sky: Heavy Snow (1-8 mm flakes)
Snow at the stake: 36.0 inches