Weekend storm

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Did anyone else see the latest model runs? This is the 1800Z ETA for 7 am EST Sunday depicting precipitation amounts for 60 hours leading up to that time: <BR> <BR><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3024.gif" ALT="ETA"> <BR> <BR>Yowza! I'm getting psyched. This storm is moving further and further north with each model run. Time to dust off the boards.
 
Oops, that was the GFS. The ETA isn't quite as promising, but still moves north with each model run: <BR> <BR><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3025.gif" ALT="THIS is the ETA">
 
Is Guido getting into looking at the models now ;-? It is very exciting to watch them come out though when a big storm is coming. The 00z ones will start to come out on the NCEP site between 9 and 10pm tonight with the ETA coming out first with the NGM. <BR> <BR>I'll post later tonight after those new ones come out. The 00z and 12z model runs are the big ones which the NWS bases their forecasts off of and those are when new upper air and ground observations are factored into the model guidance. The 06z and 18z runs do not recieve new upper air obs but they do have the latest ground observations to work with. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Powderfreak wrote: <BR><BLOCKQUOTE><HR SIZE=0><!-Quote-!><FONT SIZE=1><B>Quote:</B></FONT><P>The 00z and 12z model runs are the big ones which the NWS bases their forecasts off of and those are when new upper air and ground observations are factored into the model guidance. The 06z and 18z runs do not recieve new upper air obs but they do have the latest ground observations to work with.<!-/Quote-!><HR SIZE=0></BLOCKQUOTE> <BR>I didn't know that. Thanks for that tidbit, Scott! <BR> <BR>It will be fun and interesting to use this as a thread to watch this thing develop or fizzle. Forecast, prognosticate and pontificate away, folks!
 
Hey guys, <BR> <BR>This strom looks to be promising for southern vermont and new hampshire ski areas. As I said earlier in the week I think that the substantial snow will be from Rutland and Lebanon south. I think the storm may even inch past that location. As far north as sugarbush to sunday river. <BR> <BR>However the farther south the higher the totals. It looks right now as if the storm will drop 10-12 inches of fluffy snow in southern NH and VT. It could possibly be more in the higher elevations. Looks good, I hope the strom stays on track. <BR> <BR>porter <BR> <BR>ps next weeks clipper looks good as well
 
When are they supposed to get that amount? I'll be heading up if it's going to be that good tomorrow. but I think. it might be a better choice on Sat AM !! Bright Eyed !!!
 
You people are just thinking about VT and NY, how about the Berkshire's over in MA. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we get dumped on.. <BR>Normally the news start playing up the storm and then it flops, well this time there hasn't been much news about it.. Could that be a good sign?
 
Salida- Props to you so far. You've stuck with the Rutland to Lebanon line and that looks like its going to work. I've been very poor with this storm following the American models. I should've stuck with the Euro and Canadian. <BR> <BR>Gil- Berkshires look like they are in a very good position. I'll post later tonight after the 00z model runs come out and once I can get some confirmation on radiosond data to see which model is handling this best and we can see where the largest pressure drops and rises are. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Of course there is nothing for us... except a little bit in the townships <IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/sad.gif" ALT=":("> <BR> <BR>Anyway, I think it is better for me now to believe that there is no powder to ski anywhere than to be stuck at home while I know there is insane conditions everywhere. This weekend should really be excellent here... a chance for me that there is no snowstorm on the way, cause I would be in burnout ;)
 
Nvrcld wrote: <BR><BLOCKQUOTE><HR SIZE=0><!-Quote-!><FONT SIZE=1><B>Quote:</B></FONT><P>When are they supposed to get that amount? I'll be heading up if it's going to be that good tomorrow. but I think. it might be a better choice on Sat AM !!<!-/Quote-!><HR SIZE=0></BLOCKQUOTE> <BR>More like Sunday AM will be a better choice. Those model graphics above are based on 1200Z Sunday (7 am EST), and encompass the 60 hours leading up to it. If you want a day-to-day breakdown, here's 7 am EST Saturday with the 24 hours leading up to it (I'll use the GFS, just because it makes me happier): <BR> <BR><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3026.gif" ALT="Saturday"> <BR> <BR>and here's the 24 hours leading up to 7 am EST Sunday: <BR> <BR><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3027.gif" ALT="Sunday"> <BR> <BR>So, you see, for most of the northeastern ski country that will see white from this storm, very little will fall before 7 am EST Saturday, but a lot will fall between 7 am EST Saturday and 7 am EST Sunday. <BR> <BR>Of course, this assumes that the GFS models are correct!
 
As for the berks I think that they could get up to twenty inches in the mountains. However, the farther south you go the denser the snow will become because there will be a higher moisture content in the snow. <BR> <BR>It looks to me somewhere between 15 and 20 inches. <BR> <BR>I'll check back later. <BR> <BR>porter
 
Another couple quick things to add that I've picked up from reading various discussions... <BR> <BR>Reasons why this storm is causing concern about why it might be grossly overdone on models: <BR> <BR>There are two impulses. Usually when this occurs, the first one robs the second one of energy. If this thing was one big storm and all the energy was together, then it wouldn't be causing all of these forecasting problems. Instead, it is coming out in peices. <BR> <BR>There is a large high pressure sitting just to the north that could easily retard northward movement of precip. Forecasters are fearful that the models will realize this and precip may be shunted to the south at the last instant. <BR> <BR>The second low pressure (the one with possible heavy snow) is not that strong or deep in pressure. Nothing is forecasted to "bomb" out. It might be hard to get 10-20 inches of snow in a relatively flat storm...nothing turns up the coast and bombs out in a classic nor'easter way. It just moves slowly enough to push precip back into the northeast. <BR> <BR>Just some notes to think about on the negative side. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Jeremy from NELSAP here. <BR> <BR>I'm a full time meteorologist, and I've been forecasting this one... <BR> <BR>Latest 00Z models are bringing precip much further north. This is the exact same trend as last year. Its incredible. <BR> <BR>At this time, there is a strong likelihood of 12" + over s'rn New England, 6-12" central New England, and a few inches north. <BR> <BR>This looks like a good one! <BR> <BR>Jeremy
 
Wow, I should be heading to VT! Magic Mountain might be a good bet. <BR> <BR>Looks like the Poconos might get a lot of snow. I checked the Elk Mtn website and they aren't going to open until Dec 10th. Might be a good place to earn some turns. Otherwise I may end up riding the lift at Greek Peak with my local skiing buddies. <BR> <BR>Marc, you are in a good location for this one. You have lots of choices. If I were you, I'd probably go to Magic. It's close, cheap and they will get a lot of snow, not to mention that they have some good terrain. <BR> <BR>That is my pic. Just beam me there Scottie, otherwise it's a long drive for me.
 
00z ETA is impressive for just about anyone from Binghamton to Albany to Burlington and points east and south. <BR> <BR>I still don't buy into the idea of significant precip coming that far north. <BR> <BR>Jeremy- can you explain meterologically why the models would think the precip will come further north? I'm not sure what the NAO is, but I believe it is switching stages. The storm still has a positive tilt look to it, it doesn't deepen rapidly, on the maps the pressure center appears rather vague and the precip seems to be due to upper level forcing and not a strong surface low. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
magic won't be open this weekend. never stopped anyone from earning their turns tho ;) i'll be there saturday, but not for skiing. will turn my boards on sunday depending on what happens in that 12-24 hour period of snow fall. this is looking GREAT!!!!
 
It's a shame that ski areas won't be opening this weekend when such a storm is on the way. <BR> <BR>Plattekill, Elk and Magic are 3 gems that will probably get a good dump of snow and no lifts will be turning. <BR> <BR>This will make for big crowds at the open resorts (Flatton, Slokemo, Huntah and Kmart), however there will likely be places to 'get away' from the crowds if there's this much snow. <BR> <BR>I know the K-chatters are getting all excited for this weekend. <BR> <BR>Unfortunately I'm not up for a 5+hr drive to VT. Huntah is a possibility (3 1/2 hrs), but I'm guessing Huntah will be high traffic. Bellayre may be boring terrain, but add 2' of powder and who cares. It certainly will be better than Greek Peak with no new snow.
 
Lurk lurk lurk. <BR> <BR>I'm the kiss of death to any storm. The 0Z looks nice enough, and that's all I'm going to say about this. I'll take a 0Z ETA to go, please. ;-)
 
Just surfed around the net a bit. <BR> <BR>The Weather Channel, Accuweather and WeatherUnderground are saying storm will be mostly in Poconos/Catskills with not much hitting VT and nothern NY. <BR> <BR>NWS speaks of greater potential. <BR> <BR>Only 60% chance of snow here (Ithaca, NY), and I don't expect much. <BR> <BR>I came back here because I like Jeremy's and Scott's forecasts better. <BR> <BR>Marc, let me know where you and Dan are heading on sunday. If you go south I'll meet you.
 
just watched the NECN forecast. weatherman and good doobie tim kelley mentioned skiing in his forecast!!! a weatherman on our side, i love it. hey news desk people: DON"T BE HATERS WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW! <BR> <BR>NECN forecase is calling for a FOOT OF FRESH in central MA (read: WAWA). that's the bullseye on their forecast. but who will be the big jackpot winner? only time will tell!
 
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