Weekend storm

Sharon wrote: <BR><BLOCKQUOTE><HR SIZE=0><!-Quote-!><FONT SIZE=1><B>Quote:</B></FONT><P>Marc, let me know where you and Dan are heading on sunday. If you go south I'll meet you.<!-/Quote-!><HR SIZE=0></BLOCKQUOTE> <BR>Sure thing.
 
NWS in Burlington says they will likely need to consider putting up a Winter Storm Watch during the overnight shift for south-central VT. With the models in, I'd expect a watch to go up for Rutland, Windsor, and possibly Orange counties. <BR> <BR>Here is my thinking now as the event nears and I'll grade these numbers after the storm (ETA and GFS are both upping the ante here): <BR>Catskills and Berkshire ski areas: 12-24 inches <BR>Albany, NY: 8-12 <BR>Glens Falls, NY: 4-8 <BR>Newburgh, NY: 10-15 <BR>New York City(Central Park), NY: 10-15 <BR>Burlington, VT: 2-4 <BR>Stowe, VT: 3-7 (just under Warning criteria) <BR>Manchester, VT: 10-15 <BR>Hartford, CT: 10-15 <BR>Boston, MA: 10-15 <BR>Concord, NH: 10-15 <BR>Berlin, NH: 3-6 <BR>Rutland, VT: 8-12 <BR>Bangor, ME: 5-10 <BR>Guido's Front Lawn, NY: 11.5 inches <BR> <BR>I'm going with these numbers. There is a MAJOR bust potential if the models turn out correct. I took the average of the ETA, GFS, NGM and then took about 3/4ths of that and used a 12 to 1 ratio. Personally I think the models are overdoing this now because it is quite scary what could happen if they are right, and the odds are always against a record breaking storm (not sure what records, but I'm sure plenty of these places would shatter their daily snowfall records and it could easily put this into a top December storm in many cities). I'm afraid if the air is really as cold as it could be (snow falling into upper teens to low 20's) the fluff content of this snow could soar totals to nearly double what I have down in some cases. <BR> <BR>Other than that...of current interest, it is 9 below zero at Saranac Lake right now. That's a tad bit nippy if you ask me. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
something that hasn't been mentioned is the warmer easterly winds coming off the ocean. don't know if anything has changed, but accuweather was predicting that. those winds would limit or take away snow chances along the I-95 corridor until i guess the backlash from the surface low coming through virginia tommorow. but if this warmer wind blows in, wouldn't it also enhance the energy/precip over the areas just far enough inland that are cold enough to stay above freezing? just else something to ponder. joe bastardi is a pro-snow meteorologist at accuweather. his analysis is available at the pro site. i highly recommend their <A HREF="http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/pro_benefits.asp"> pro site</A> if you aren't subscribed yet. they have a free 30-day trial.
 
alright good morning, <BR> <BR>here is what I got, <BR> <BR>mount sunappee ragged mountain 22 - 28 inches <BR> <BR>killington okemo - 15 - 20 <BR> <BR>central mass - 15 + <BR> <BR>sugarloaf - 12 <BR> <BR>jay 4 -6 <BR> <BR>sunday river 12 + <BR> <BR>this is what I see so far from t he models and such this morning <BR> <BR>porter
 
Another thing, just looking at this stuff while I am at school with more time. Southern VT and NH have temps in the low single digits this morning, this could make for a very impressive fluff factor. The last two times that Ragged Mountain and Mount Sunapee (Southern NH ski areas) were forecasted for 20+ inches of snow they ended up with 36-44 inches. I am not saying that will necessarily happen right now however, there will be enough cold air the fluff factor will be very high. I would not be at all surprised if either of these mountains recorded over 30 inches of snow. The storm has shifted to a more northerly direction. So, even the Vermont mountains could see a large amount, the snow totals that I have posted above I think are highly likely. <BR> <BR>The Storm looks AWESOME <BR> <BR>Porter
 
The 6Z GFS looks quite nice and even further north. Well, it looks dry for Quebec, but you guys got the last one (at least the Laurentians and Quebec City areas did), so it's our turn. <BR> <BR>On-shore wind: With upper-air temps the way they're supposed to be, it should work like "lake effect" I would think. Better even, because the ocean surface temps are in the 50's still as opposed to 30's or 40's for the great lakes. Better for Maine/NH/Mass than for VT, no doubt. <BR> <BR>More good news: The GFS is starting to be more progressive with the *next* storm. A couple days ago it was bringing it west of Montreal, now it tracks across Maine. If the low ran a teensy bit further east into the Gulf of Maine that would be just about perfect.
 
The beauty of this one is the win-win conditions. Extra deep to the south, a little less to the north but drier, and to the east.......double to triple overhead surf for the next 3-4 days. What to do, what to do? Looking forward to all your reports on Monday.....looks like the water for me on this one.
 
Meteorologist Tim Kelley is a skier. I saw him at Jay Peak two years ago. He was up there for the Extreme Skiing Competition. I think they filmed a little bit about it and then skied the rest of the day. He and his crew were parked across from us in the parking lot and looked to be enjoying themselves with a few brewskis, some Dead on the car stereo, and sun on their faces. Good "doobie" aptly summarizes my take on TK ;) <BR> <BR>Anyway, I love the skiing weathermen, but I also take what they say with a grain of salt. Bruce Schwoegler (sp?) in Boston was my all time favorite weatherman, but I think when it came to snowstorms he was forecasting through rose-colored ski goggles.
 
Currently on Long Island it is snowing and 30F at 11:45. The temperature was at 33F last hour, but it has dropped off with the start of the snow. Right now we have a light dusting in Islip and are expecting 4-8" by sunday morning. I want to ski this sunday either at Mohwawk or Catamount, but I'll wait to see how the road conditions are by then. Both areas should recive 12"+ based on the current forecast.
 
12z model guidance has shifted axis of heaviest snow to souther and central NH. Mount Sunapee is now ground zero. Storm moves a little too quickly east to really pound the Catskills but the Berks are still looking good. QPF from the models really pounds northern Mass to about North Conway, NH. <BR> <BR>12z ETA has about half the snow from Albany to Binghamton as it did for the 00z run and about half the snowfall of the 12z GFS. <BR>12z ETA: <BR><A HREF="http://tinyurl.com/xw4g" TARGET="_top">http://tinyurl.com/xw4g</A> <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
weirdly, here, it's snowing actually even though the sky is full blue.... and there is no mountains within 15 miles from here. Quite a funny weird thing <IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/clipart/happy.gif" ALT=":)"> <BR> <BR>Have a great storm !
 
Where do you think the best skiing would be Attitash or Sunday river. I need to get some turns in from this storm. School is killing me.
 
As of 2:00 pm I have 2 inches of snow in Islip with the temperature down to 27F. I guess that the storm is drawing down the colder air from New England with temperatures right now of 18F in Rutland, 22F in Bennington and 25F in Springfield MA according to the NWS website. If only Long Island had mountains, ho hum. I guess that the saying that every inch of snow in the coastal cities is worth a million $ in advertising will pay off for New England ski areas this weekend. <BR>Lets go snow!!!!
 
Sunday River would be my vote, I think they will be in a good location for more snow than Attitash, plus currently they have a lot more terrain open. I'd go with sunday river hands down. <BR>porter
 
18Z ETA: Oh. My. God. <BR> <BR><A HREF="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p60_066m.gif" TARGET="_top">http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p60_066m.gif</A>
 
'Chromer...I was waiting for someone to post that! Beautiful isn't it? You guys are going to get hammered in Maine. Its about time, you deserve it. <BR>Time to go see the 18z GFS... <BR> <BR>OH MY GODDDDDDDDDD I JUST LOOKED AT THE 18Z GFS. TEARS OF JOY ARE COMING INTO MY EYES! <BR> <BR><A HREF="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_060m.gif" TARGET="_top">http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_060m.gif</A> <BR> <BR>Seriously though...WHAT IS THAT?!!?! All the sudden Burlington's got 10-15 inches of snow...Albany's pushing 24 inches...Sunday River and most of Maine are clobbered with feet of fluff..Boston suburbs get like 20-30 inches...ridiculous. <BR> <BR>That is a mean trick by the GFS...very mean. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
<IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3028.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3029.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3030.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3031.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3032.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3033.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3034.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3035.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3036.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"> <BR> <BR><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3037.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3038.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3039.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3040.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz"><IMG SRC="http://www.firsttracksonline.com/discus2/messages/8/3041.jpg" ALT="lucky guyz">
 
Frank - next week's storm should hit the Montreal area. Unknown how big yet, of course. <BR> <BR>I can't believe that we might go from effectively no natural snow to having the woods open in 1 storm. I won't believe it. <BR> <BR>How is it that the models are handling this storm so poorly? Jeremy? Any professional insights?
 
Next week's storm ? <BR> <BR>I hope it... as I will be back on the slopes on tuesday night (16 dec). Planning : <BR> <BR>dec-16 evening : Mt Avila/MSS <BR>dec-17 : Tremblant <BR>dec-19 : Orford (gondi's opening coverage) <BR>dec-21 : La Réserve or Val Saint-Côme <BR>dec-24 : Somewhere not for in the north. <BR> <BR>After that, it's more speculation, but I will try to ski at La Réserve, Mt Shefford and a lot of others before I begin to work on january 5.
 
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