Western Weather 2014-15
- Thread starter Marc_C
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Admin, do you have stats on how many of Colorado's record-breaking ski visits this season are due to people fleeing skiapocalypse in California?
No, and even when skier visits are released it won't be broken down that way. I can tell you that for the fourth season in a row the Wasatch has been flooded with visitors from California. Don't forget that Mammoth and Squaw/Alpine pass holders get half price AltaBird tickets.
jimk
Active member
My ski travels this winter have taken me to CO, UT, CA, Jackson WY and back to CO currently. Anecdotally, I can tell you there were a lot of CA and PNW people in UT and WY. Fewer west coasties seem to make it to CO where the snow is best from my experiences despite being a mediocre winter for CO.
You mean that they know the origin of the destination skiers but don't want to publicize it?Admin":1fen8lw7 said:
The Kottke Report does release sources of skier visits, but only at the regional level. So in May we can compare Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest visitation to the Rockies vs. prior seasons. Kottke does not break down the Rockies by state however.
We are still waiting for admin, as Utah's premier snowsports journalist, to update Utah skier visit trends since they were last published in 2007. :stir:
We are still waiting for admin, as Utah's premier snowsports journalist, to update Utah skier visit trends since they were last published in 2007. :stir:
As Utah's premier snowsports webmaster, he needs to update the ski map to add all those new global coordinates. :stir:Tony Crocker":2gt3m4xq said:
Marc_C
Active member
Alta was over 60F today. Looking at the forecast, I suspect the skiing will suck from Wednesday till Saturday afternoon:
Monday night: 31
Tue: 57/19
Wed: 35/16
Thur: 28/14
Fri: 39/20
Sat: 49/26
Those are base temperatures. There is snow in the forecast, particularly Wed night thru Thurs morning. It might amount to as much as 3".
I'd go to Moab this weekend only if it wasn't Easter Jeep Safari (google it if you don't know; Moab gets over 15K visitors for that event)
Monday night: 31
Tue: 57/19
Wed: 35/16
Thur: 28/14
Fri: 39/20
Sat: 49/26
Those are base temperatures. There is snow in the forecast, particularly Wed night thru Thurs morning. It might amount to as much as 3".
I'd go to Moab this weekend only if it wasn't Easter Jeep Safari (google it if you don't know; Moab gets over 15K visitors for that event)
It's unheard of - Alta missed 100-inch base http://www.sltrib.com/news/2446854-155/ ... lta-missed
Onno makes some reference in this article to the snowfall recording inconsistencies that Crocker has noted.
Onno makes some reference in this article to the snowfall recording inconsistencies that Crocker has noted.
No Alta is reporting no October snow in that total. I have just started collecting data and Alta is #1 in North America so far. I have Jay, base is way lower than summit this year so average is only 286. Stowe mid per powderfreak is 290.
Kirkwood had 158 and we know Mt. Baker is going be record low by a lot. Revelstoke and Whitewater don't measure in April. Alyeska will likely be #1 but I won't know for sure until I get the mid number there. Alyeska is known to have had the same high rain/snow line problems as the rest of the West Coast.
Kirkwood had 158 and we know Mt. Baker is going be record low by a lot. Revelstoke and Whitewater don't measure in April. Alyeska will likely be #1 but I won't know for sure until I get the mid number there. Alyeska is known to have had the same high rain/snow line problems as the rest of the West Coast.
Marc_C
Active member
Interesting weather forecast for the final lift-served weekend in the Wasatch. Tomorrow thru Sunday is showing totals of 9"-20".
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of snow showers before midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. South southeast wind 9 to 15 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday
Snow showers, mainly after noon. High near 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 29. South wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow. High near 39. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of snow showers before midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. South southeast wind 9 to 15 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday
Snow showers, mainly after noon. High near 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 29. South wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow. High near 39. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
EMSC
Well-known member
Arapahoe Basin, blessed by feet of May snow, is drawing big crowds
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28156281/arapahoe-basin-blessed-by-feet-may-snow-drawing
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28156281/arapahoe-basin-blessed-by-feet-may-snow-drawing
EMSC
Well-known member
Things finally warmed up the past few days so snowpack is now falling off the end-of-season cliff. Time to post the annual SWE charts for some of the major Colorado basins.
First up is The South Platte which is technically east of the divide, but best represents Eldora, Loveland, Abasin most years. Not too bad a season overall and a phenomenal season compared tot he rest of the west this year.
The Colorado Rive basin best representing Vail, Beaver Creek, Breck, Keystone, Winter Park looks rather dismal after early March, but most of the rest of the west would have loved to have as much snowfall...
And I'll throw in the Gunnison basin this year with Monarch and Crested Butte in there. Not a great year, but they were still glad their name didn't include Tahoe.
All pulled from: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/co/snow/products/?cid=nrcs144p2_063323
First up is The South Platte which is technically east of the divide, but best represents Eldora, Loveland, Abasin most years. Not too bad a season overall and a phenomenal season compared tot he rest of the west this year.
The Colorado Rive basin best representing Vail, Beaver Creek, Breck, Keystone, Winter Park looks rather dismal after early March, but most of the rest of the west would have loved to have as much snowfall...
And I'll throw in the Gunnison basin this year with Monarch and Crested Butte in there. Not a great year, but they were still glad their name didn't include Tahoe.
All pulled from: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/co/snow/products/?cid=nrcs144p2_063323
Here's an interesting SWE comparison of Grizzly Peak near A-Basin to Snowbird in 2014-15.
While Grizzly Peak is close to average and stayed near its maximum deep into May, note that maximum snowpack was about 16 inches SWE. Snowbird, in its record low year, exceeded that snowpack from mid-January through April and maxed out about 22 inches SWE.
Overall I would rather have been in Colorado this year for the better preservation and longer season on similar snowfall. But the above demonstrates that a crappy year in LCC is similar to an average year in Colorado. And a great year in Colorado like 2010-11 is like an average year in LCC.
I have completed my data collection for 2014-15 and the gory details are here:
http://bestsnow.net/seas15.htm
http://bestsnow.net/summ15.htm
2014-15 has slotted in with 1976-77 and 1980-81 as the lowest snowfall seasons on record. In 1976-77 and 1980-81 Grand Targhee led North America's ski areas with 372 and 382 inches respectively. Targhee had 301 inches in 2014-15. In all other seasons someone comfortably exceeded 400 inches.
UDOT has been measuring snowfall near the base of Alta at 8,700 feet since 1946. 276.8 inches in 2014-15 is the record low for that location. Alta Ski Area measures near the Collins mid-station at 9,600 feet since 1980-81. 2014-15 snowfall there was 323.5 inches, lowest of the 35 years measured there. There are no Alta Collins records from 1976-77, the consensus record low western snow season before this one.
Jay Peak in Vermont measured 374 inches at the top and 214 at the base, so I count 294 mid-mountain for Jay.
Alyeska like most West Coast areas was plagued by a high rain/snow line in 2014-15. The top of Alyeska's lift service at 2,750 feet had 478.3 inches of snow while mid-mountain at 1,500 feet had only 176 inches. The long term relationship of mid to top at Alyeska is 79%, so the 37% this year tells you how much rain there was.
Breckenridge in Colorado recorded 321 inches of snow through closing date Apr. 19 at 11,200 feet. This site is not at the top of lift service but is considered by locals to be in a high snowfall part of the ski area.
Revelstoke in Canada recorded 224 inches December - March. Based upon a nearby Canadian weather site I would estimate about 320 inches for November - April.
There are a couple of very high snowfall areas in far northern British Columbia, Shames and Powder King. I have never been able to obtain snowfall data from either. It is very likely that Powder King got more snow than Alta in 2014-15, but I have no numbers to support that.
So in conclusion I consider Alta's 323.5 inches during its record low season to be #1 in North America for 2014-15!
Here's the update to a chart I have posted before:
Is there a trend? It's a little early to say that. The recent dry period is quite acute, but compare to the 1985-1992 period where there were few seasons much above average even at the individual region level.
The graph above has a trend line. This is the first year that it has even a slightly negative slope, obviously dragged down by the extremity of 2014-15. If there was zero negative trend from 1973-2014, we need to see a few more years before concluding that there is a meaningful negative trend now. Just 4 years ago we enjoyed the highest snowfall ski season of our lifetimes, and that trend line was up more then than it is down now.
While Grizzly Peak is close to average and stayed near its maximum deep into May, note that maximum snowpack was about 16 inches SWE. Snowbird, in its record low year, exceeded that snowpack from mid-January through April and maxed out about 22 inches SWE.
Overall I would rather have been in Colorado this year for the better preservation and longer season on similar snowfall. But the above demonstrates that a crappy year in LCC is similar to an average year in Colorado. And a great year in Colorado like 2010-11 is like an average year in LCC.
I have completed my data collection for 2014-15 and the gory details are here:
http://bestsnow.net/seas15.htm
http://bestsnow.net/summ15.htm
2014-15 has slotted in with 1976-77 and 1980-81 as the lowest snowfall seasons on record. In 1976-77 and 1980-81 Grand Targhee led North America's ski areas with 372 and 382 inches respectively. Targhee had 301 inches in 2014-15. In all other seasons someone comfortably exceeded 400 inches.
UDOT has been measuring snowfall near the base of Alta at 8,700 feet since 1946. 276.8 inches in 2014-15 is the record low for that location. Alta Ski Area measures near the Collins mid-station at 9,600 feet since 1980-81. 2014-15 snowfall there was 323.5 inches, lowest of the 35 years measured there. There are no Alta Collins records from 1976-77, the consensus record low western snow season before this one.
Jay Peak in Vermont measured 374 inches at the top and 214 at the base, so I count 294 mid-mountain for Jay.
Alyeska like most West Coast areas was plagued by a high rain/snow line in 2014-15. The top of Alyeska's lift service at 2,750 feet had 478.3 inches of snow while mid-mountain at 1,500 feet had only 176 inches. The long term relationship of mid to top at Alyeska is 79%, so the 37% this year tells you how much rain there was.
Breckenridge in Colorado recorded 321 inches of snow through closing date Apr. 19 at 11,200 feet. This site is not at the top of lift service but is considered by locals to be in a high snowfall part of the ski area.
Revelstoke in Canada recorded 224 inches December - March. Based upon a nearby Canadian weather site I would estimate about 320 inches for November - April.
There are a couple of very high snowfall areas in far northern British Columbia, Shames and Powder King. I have never been able to obtain snowfall data from either. It is very likely that Powder King got more snow than Alta in 2014-15, but I have no numbers to support that.
So in conclusion I consider Alta's 323.5 inches during its record low season to be #1 in North America for 2014-15!
Here's the update to a chart I have posted before:
Is there a trend? It's a little early to say that. The recent dry period is quite acute, but compare to the 1985-1992 period where there were few seasons much above average even at the individual region level.
The graph above has a trend line. This is the first year that it has even a slightly negative slope, obviously dragged down by the extremity of 2014-15. If there was zero negative trend from 1973-2014, we need to see a few more years before concluding that there is a meaningful negative trend now. Just 4 years ago we enjoyed the highest snowfall ski season of our lifetimes, and that trend line was up more then than it is down now.
tseeb
Well-known member
Thought some of you might like to see Mustang Powder's summary/farewell/good riddance to last season that includes "We had a good start and saw lots of precipitation in early January that would turn warm January 6th. From that point on it seemed to either not snow, or it would rain. Sometimes to the top of our peaks in the alpine. "
For more, see http://www.mustangpowder.com/the-grinch ... winter.htm
For more, see http://www.mustangpowder.com/the-grinch ... winter.htm
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