Western Weather 2015-16

MarcC":fxky4gk2 said:
The Dreaded January Ridge (DJR)
It will be interesting to see how that compares to the meager 14 inches of snow that Alta received between Nov. 16 and Dec. 9. Do I have any takers on a bet that a comparable period of time in January 2016 will have less snow?
 
This year and 2007-08 are Taos' top two holiday seasons in over 20 years.

There is certainly more snow now than when Taos first opened the Kachina chair last Feb. 14. My guess is that the issue now is snow stability, as in much of the West. Snowbird is still reporting only 82 of 169 runs open, and I don't think it's because the 62 inch base is inadequate to open more than that.
 
Tony Crocker":10z12oof said:
Snowbird is still reporting only 82 of 169 runs open, and I don't think it's because the 62 inch base is inadequate to open more than that.

They opened Mineral today, sort of -- Cham I is the only way down, probably because that ripped to dirt a week ago.
 
"January is that time of year when we have snow on the ground, cold temps, and high pressure ridges that like to park themselves over us." -Kevin Eubanks, KSL meteorologist, tonight's 6pm news broadcast
 
This January is apples and oranges vs. the past 2 seasons. El Nino can go either way for Utah. 1991-92 had a chronic split jet stream and Baldy got more snow than Snowbird that year. Alta Collins had a measly 32.5 inches in January 1992, barely more than the record low of 30.5 in 2003 and last year. Season total was 364 inches.

But Alta Collins had 133.50 inches in January 1998 and 595 for the season. In 1982-83 Alta Collins had 619 inches for the season but only 53.5 in January.
 
Marc_C":3rw3s5bi said:
"January is that time of year when we have snow on the ground, cold temps, and high pressure ridges that like to park themselves over us." -Kevin Eubanks, KSL meteorologist, tonight's 6pm news broadcast


https://www.skiutah.com/media-room/pow-day

Why January 13? January 13, 2016 isn't just another winter day. Based on over 50 years of snow data, this is statistically the snowiest day in Utah! This is truly Utah's POW day.
 
socal":b8mew7hh said:
Marc_C":b8mew7hh said:
"January is that time of year when we have snow on the ground, cold temps, and high pressure ridges that like to park themselves over us." -Kevin Eubanks, KSL meteorologist, tonight's 6pm news broadcast


https://www.skiutah.com/media-room/pow-day

Why January 13? January 13, 2016 isn't just another winter day. Based on over 50 years of snow data, this is statistically the snowiest day in Utah! This is truly Utah's POW day.

Argue it with Kevin Eubanks.
 
socal":24vf57o4 said:
Marc_C":24vf57o4 said:
"January is that time of year when we have snow on the ground, cold temps, and high pressure ridges that like to park themselves over us." -Kevin Eubanks, KSL meteorologist, tonight's 6pm news broadcast


https://www.skiutah.com/media-room/pow-day

Why January 13? January 13, 2016 isn't just another winter day. Based on over 50 years of snow data, this is statistically the snowiest day in Utah! This is truly Utah's POW day.

You're pulling a "Crocker" and relying upon averages. That single day may statistically have the highest average snowfall of any day in the season (and of course I haven't checked to verify their claim), but that says nothing about persistent high pressure frequently occurring in Utah in January.
 
Admin":2iyqt3er said:
socal":2iyqt3er said:
Marc_C":2iyqt3er said:
"January is that time of year when we have snow on the ground, cold temps, and high pressure ridges that like to park themselves over us." -Kevin Eubanks, KSL meteorologist, tonight's 6pm news broadcast


https://www.skiutah.com/media-room/pow-day

Why January 13? January 13, 2016 isn't just another winter day. Based on over 50 years of snow data, this is statistically the snowiest day in Utah! This is truly Utah's POW day.

You're pulling a "Crocker" and relying upon averages. That single day may statistically have the highest average snowfall of any day in the season (and of course I haven't checked to verify their claim), but that says nothing about persistent high pressure frequently occurring in Utah in January.


file.php
 
a) Source please? Nothing there even shows the geographic location of study.
b) You'd have to expand the timeline in either direction to truly see any concentration.
 
Admin":1k28drd1 said:
a) Source please? Nothing there even shows the geographic location of study.
b) You'd have to expand the timeline in either direction to truly see any concentration.

I resurrected this from an old thread.

a. Here's the source, http://cliserv.jql.usu.edu/paper/14306.pdf

b. Clearly I can't do anything like that, just pointing out some data, draw your own conclusions I guess.
 
admin":1k7b2ysg said:
persistent high pressure frequently occurring in Utah in January.
As it can at any other time during the snow season, most recently the dry spell between Nov. 16 and Dec. 10 during which Alta received a meager 14 inches of snow. The odds are high that will be the driest spell of that length during the 2015-16 season in Utah.

I was about to note that "January 13 snowiest day" quote but socal beat me to it. You can fiddle with averages or time series all you want, but it sure blows this quote out of the water:
MarcC":1k7b2ysg said:
if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25
 
Tony Crocker":2g6skyrg said:
admin":2g6skyrg said:
persistent high pressure frequently occurring in Utah in January.
As it can at any other time during the snow season, most recently the dry spell between Nov. 16 and Dec. 10 during which Alta received a meager 14 inches of snow. The odds are high that will be the driest spell of that length during the 2015-16 season in Utah.

I was about to note that "January 13 snowiest day" quote but socal beat me to it. You can fiddle with averages or time series all you want, but it sure blows this quote out of the water:
MarcC":2g6skyrg said:
if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25

Argue it with Kevin Eubanks. I will no longer entertain any further discussion with someone who does not and consistently refuses to understand the kind of numeric analysis that would need to be done to "blow the quote out of the water".
 
Looks liked the dreaded mid-January dry spell is about to come:

Utah Skiweather":3q6uu255 said:
All models show a strong ridge building into the region for the next 7-10 days. This means sunny, calm, and warm conditions up in the mountains and pollution in the valley. By the middle of next week, 700 mb (crest level) temperatures may reach +3 or 4°C, which means conditions will be Spring-like. There are some signs that a trough will move back into the region towards the middle of February. Let’s hope this comes to fruition and brings some powder along with it.

Just finishing a week in Mammoth, it's warm here now after a cold start to the week. No snow for a few weeks in the models. Tons of snow though. The sign at the top (20ft tall) has about 2 ft showing and the stairs at the top gondola station are completely buried, walk right out onto the snow.
 
Yesterday, actually, and 13" of cold smoke. But that was only in LCC. BCC got 5",the Wasatch Back around 2" and Snowbasin a dusting. Forecast was fit a trace to 3" - it was a real sleeper storm.

And Wasatch Snow Forecast wrote yesterday, "We're now coming to the end of inversion season." :stir:
 
admin":1l4oy6fs said:
"We're now coming to the end of inversion season."
This is true, but per Steenburgh there was little in the way of inversions this January. Not surprising since Alta had 106 inches of snow and the longest stretch with no snow was only 4 days Jan. 9-12.
 
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