Western Weather 2015-16
- Thread starter Marc_C
- Start date
EMSC":p9zj6cbl said:
Yeah, it's strengthening in coming days. So what? The inconvenient fact is that the probability of inversions in northern Utah valleys peaks around mid-January due to:
1. Likelihood of cold temperatures;
2. Likelihood of snow on the ground in the valley; and
3. Low sun angle, rendering solar radiation somewhat impotent at warming lower elevations and therefore mixing up the atmosphere.
The fact that there's an inversion in mid-February (or that one might occur in mid-December) does nothing to dispel the fact that the probability reaches its peak around mid-January, and we therefore often see a good one around then. Just ask the folks who attend Outdoor Retailer every January -- I met one attendee last year who despite attending the show for a number of years, he was never able to actually see the Wasatch.
I guess this explains why there haven't been any UT reports lately.
The inversion peak probability is in fact a plateau that extends from mid-December to the end of January, as shown in charts posted by myself and socal. Probability rises to that plateau from late November to mid-December and declines from the plateau through February.admin":375aolso said:
It would be tied most closely to sun angle except for the enhancement by snow-covered ground, which rarely gets established before mid-December. Steenburgh has described all of this in some detail over the years. "Dry spells" are slightly more frequent in November than during the winter months, but since there is no snow on the ground in SLC in that scenario the inversions are less likely to take hold.
Here you can just go outside. Tomorrow will be the 9th consecutive day over 80F in SoCal. First week of February was the time of the first major dumps here during El Nino 1998, but this one is pretty much a no-show in SoCal so far. http://bestsnow.net/19980209baldytc.HTMLadmin":375aolso said:
Marc_C
Active member
You're joking, right?jamesdeluxe":1o8442ey said:
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/bo...sts&sk=t&sd=d&st=180&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search
Marc_C
Active member
With screaming southern winds gusting to over 70 mph and near zero vis, it's little wonder Snowbird is basically shut down today (as of 10:45am):
LIFTS & TERRAIN
Aerial Tram (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Baby Thunder (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Baldy (9 am - 3:30 pm) Closed
Chickadee (9 am - 5 pm) Open
Gad 2 (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Gadzoom (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Little Cloud (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Mid-Gad (9 am - 4:15 pm) Closed
Mineral Basin (9 am - 3:30 pm) Closed
Peruvian (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Wilbere (9 am - 4:30 pm) Closed
[Edit to add:]
Similar story next door at Alta, with a bit more terrain open:
Wildcat
Comment: Open
Collins
Comment: Open
Sugarloaf
Comment: Closed
Supreme
Comment: Closed
Cecret
Comment: Closed
Sunnyside
Comment: Closed
Albion
Comment: Closed
LIFTS & TERRAIN
Aerial Tram (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Baby Thunder (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Baldy (9 am - 3:30 pm) Closed
Chickadee (9 am - 5 pm) Open
Gad 2 (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Gadzoom (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Little Cloud (9 am - 3:45 pm) Closed
Mid-Gad (9 am - 4:15 pm) Closed
Mineral Basin (9 am - 3:30 pm) Closed
Peruvian (9 am - 4 pm) Closed
Wilbere (9 am - 4:30 pm) Closed
[Edit to add:]
Similar story next door at Alta, with a bit more terrain open:
Wildcat
Comment: Open
Collins
Comment: Open
Sugarloaf
Comment: Closed
Supreme
Comment: Closed
Cecret
Comment: Closed
Sunnyside
Comment: Closed
Albion
Comment: Closed
EMSC
Well-known member
Been a heck of a week for the central & northern mtns of Colo. Not sure how Utah has been so high and dry relatively speaking.
Eldora is one of the winners of the week at 39" in 4 days at this point (snow was still falling this am though). Looks to dry out for 2-3 days before the next possible snows mid week next week. Ironically I'll be sitting in conference rooms in downtown SLC for a chunk of next week Too bad I won't have time to hit up Alta/Bird.
Eldora is one of the winners of the week at 39" in 4 days at this point (snow was still falling this am though). Looks to dry out for 2-3 days before the next possible snows mid week next week. Ironically I'll be sitting in conference rooms in downtown SLC for a chunk of next week Too bad I won't have time to hit up Alta/Bird.
Perhaps EMSC posted his season recap prematurely. This is not a surprise for A-Basin/Front Range in spring. A-Basin averages 29 inches of May snowfall and had 54 inches last May. We had powder there last May 8-9.EMSC":1ih9mye8 said:
EMSC
Well-known member
11" in the past 3 days at Abasin... Looking like a typical Colo May. A few days of warm up before 3-4 more days of precip predicted for early next week. Teh bummer is a lot of the best steeps closed up last week. Not sure if, even with the snow, it's been cold enough to stabilize the underlying snowpack for re-opening of pali, east wall, etc..
Pali did reopen yesterday per Al's Blog on the A-Basin website.
Nonetheless, scheduling a May visit to A-Basin from afar is a speculative call if you want to see the steeps open. In May 2015 there was a discussion on the topic on Epic, where someone helpfully pointed out the Grizzly Peak SNOTEL close to A-Basin with daily temperature records going back 32 years. First weekend of May Pali is about 85% likely to be open, third weekend of May it's about 70% likely to be closed. When Mother's Day (timing of an annual Epic get-together) is late (May 12-14), Pali is likely to be closed nearly half the time. When Mother's Day is early (May 8-11), it's likely to be closed only a quarter of the time.
With Mother's Day being May 8 this year but May 14 next year, I recently suggested that the annual event (which has many fly-in participants) be May 5-7 next year, with the added bonus that Loveland would likely be open too. This proposal fell on deaf ears due to "Tradition."
Details of last year's analysis:
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1884435 My Grizzly Peak analysis
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1885959 Tball response
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1885978 Follow-up
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1886887 A-Basin as "dark blue" mountain
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1887053 Decision making for destination late season skiing
The infamous continental snowpack is still a risk factor for late season wet snow avalanches. like the one in 2005 which has resulted in A-Basin's current careful monitoring and early shutdowns of Pali.
Once again I'm glad my late season skiing is at Mammoth. I skied Philippe's this May 4. Patrick and I skied Hangman's on July 1, 2006.
Nonetheless, scheduling a May visit to A-Basin from afar is a speculative call if you want to see the steeps open. In May 2015 there was a discussion on the topic on Epic, where someone helpfully pointed out the Grizzly Peak SNOTEL close to A-Basin with daily temperature records going back 32 years. First weekend of May Pali is about 85% likely to be open, third weekend of May it's about 70% likely to be closed. When Mother's Day (timing of an annual Epic get-together) is late (May 12-14), Pali is likely to be closed nearly half the time. When Mother's Day is early (May 8-11), it's likely to be closed only a quarter of the time.
With Mother's Day being May 8 this year but May 14 next year, I recently suggested that the annual event (which has many fly-in participants) be May 5-7 next year, with the added bonus that Loveland would likely be open too. This proposal fell on deaf ears due to "Tradition."
Details of last year's analysis:
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1884435 My Grizzly Peak analysis
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1885959 Tball response
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1885978 Follow-up
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1886887 A-Basin as "dark blue" mountain
http://www.epicski.com/t/128588/2014-15 ... st_1887053 Decision making for destination late season skiing
The infamous continental snowpack is still a risk factor for late season wet snow avalanches. like the one in 2005 which has resulted in A-Basin's current careful monitoring and early shutdowns of Pali.
Once again I'm glad my late season skiing is at Mammoth. I skied Philippe's this May 4. Patrick and I skied Hangman's on July 1, 2006.
tseeb
Well-known member
Tony Crocker":30q5dh45 said:
How do all these people get away with not spending Mother's Day with their mother? Not only would my wife not like me spending it away from her (the mother of our son), for at least the last three years we have been going to brunch hosted by her other son, then seeing my Mom later in the day.
I don't get that one either. Combine that with Loveland open and the better odds of Pali and this should be an easy call. Often price drives the timing of these events, but I don't see a difference there in either airfares or lodging. I raised all of these points and the only answers I got were, "We've been doing it this way for 10 years", "If it's not broke, don't fix it", and "Tradition", which are all basically the same answer.tseeb":1zebr2ad said:
A few of the participants are mothers themselves, and needless to say they are in favor of skiing on Mother's Day.http://forum.pugski.com/threads/mothers-day-at-arapahoe-basin-diamond-anniversary.1231/page-24#post-41110":1zebr2ad said: