Western Weather 2016-17

[Admin]

The discussion is that we frequently have a prolonged dry spell (with an accompanying inversion) +/- mid-January.

No argument with that.

Now there's a first. Don't make me dig up 20 links or more to your quotes that take "argument with that".

My point is that Utah has as frequently a prolonged dry spell in mid-March without an accompanying inversion.

That was your point yesterday, for the first time ever.

I've now been living in Utah for precisely 4,376 days. And you?

I have been skiing in Utah in mid-March in 20 different seasons. My personal experience with dry spells during that time frame is quite extraordinary

So, let me get this straight. Because you have routinely been a visitor in Utah during the same single timeshare week in March, you've now annointed yourself as an expert on Utah weather? Have I got that right? There's that extreme hubris rearing its ugly head again.

 

[EMSC]

Not quite as much Red as last week, but... the storms continue...

Be safe out there.

 

[socal]

I've now been living in Utah for precisely 4,376 days. And you?

I have been skiing in Utah in mid-March in 20 different seasons. My personal experience with dry spells during that time frame is quite extraordinary

So, let me get this straight. Because you have routinely been a visitor in Utah during the same single timeshare week in March, you've now annointed yourself as an expert on Utah weather? Have I got that right? There's that extreme hubris rearing its ugly head again.

To be fair, is living in a location a requirement for being a weather expert? Sure if you were talking snow conditions which are subjective and require real on the snow observations but weather is a science right? Data, models, etc.

 

[Admin]

I have been skiing in Utah in mid-March in 20 different seasons. My personal experience with dry spells during that time frame is quite extraordinary

So, let me get this straight. Because you have routinely been a visitor in Utah during the same single timeshare week in March, you've now annointed yourself as an expert on Utah weather? Have I got that right? There's that extreme hubris rearing its ugly head again.

To be fair, is living in a location a requirement for being a weather expert? Sure if you were talking snow conditions which are subjective and require real on the snow observations but weather is a science right? Data, models, etc.

Of course it isn't, but a California-based actuarial proclaiming to know more about Utah weather than three Utah-based meteorologists, two of whom said actuarial inaccurately derided as "TV weathermen", is ludicrous. When faced with the inaccuracies of his statements, said actuarial changes his proclamation. And an annual attendee to a single timeshare week does not make one an expert on Utah dry spells, and certainly far less knowledgeable about those dry spells than folks who have actually lived and skied in Utah for one to two decades despite protesting that he "(has) MORE personal Utah experience than either Marc at this particular time". Finally, he once again blindly trots out averages after it's been demonstrated to him time and time again that averages are meaningless on this particular point, yet he steadfastly and repeatedly refuses to spend the time doing the proper analysis that would actually prove or disprove his point.

But now he's changed the frame of reference not once, but twice. I'm no longer going to try to hit a moving target.

 

[socal]

Yeah, Tony says a lot of head scratchers, no arguments there.

 

[Tony Crocker]

That was your point yesterday, for the first time ever.

Uhh, no. I had posted the sequence of snowless days during each winter month at Alta Collins 5 TIMES before this thread.

he once again blindly trots out averages after it's been demonstrated to him time and time again that averages are meaningless on this particular point,

I've responded with the enumerated sequence of snowless days 6 TIMES , which have nothing to do with averages.

And an annual attendee to a single timeshare week does not make one an expert on Utah dry spells

Which was my point exactly. My 20 years of experience that week is far worse than the long term data, which is why these questions should be resolved by looking at real data rather than anecdotal experience.

And if admin now agrees that Utah dry spells are equally likely in March or in December as in January, we have nothing here to argue about.

 

[Admin]

That was your point yesterday, for the first time ever.

Uhh, no. I had posted the sequence of snowless days during each winter month at Alta Collins 5 TIMES before this thread.

...

And if admin now agrees that Utah dry spells are equally likely in March or in December as in January, we have nothing here to argue about.

Oh, fer fukkin' cryin' out loud! You've long advocated that a dry spell/inversion around +/- mid-January was a myth. To wit:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11194&p=70382&hilit=inversion#p70382
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11198&p=70472&hilit=inversion#p70472
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11227&p=70602&hilit=inversion#p70602
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11253&p=70765&hilit=inversion#p70765
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11253&p=70798&hilit=inversion#p70798

Would you like more examples? This week, for the first time that has morphed into "dry spells are equally likely in March or in December as in January". :roll:

 

[EMSC]

OR we could actually talk about the current weather.... Snowed so much today that Crested Butte closed mid-day due to combinations of lift issues, Avi danger, etc... Seriously!

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/09/crested-butte-mountain-resort-closed-too-much-snow/

 

[Admin]

OR we could actually talk about the current weather.... Snowed so much today that Crested Butte closed mid-day due to combinations of lift issues, Avi danger, etc... Seriously!

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/09/crested-butte-mountain-resort-closed-too-much-snow/

I've seen that happen over here, too. It was either last year or the year before, but Alta didn't even bother to open one day due to avi danger.

And thanks for changing the subject. ;-)

 

[Tony Crocker]

Every ski area in the Sierra was closed Sunday with high winds and the rain/snow line at 10,000 feet.

 

[Admin]

Every ski area in the Sierra was closed Sunday with high winds and the rain/snow line at 10,000 feet.

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2017/0 ... he-sierra/

 

[EMSC]

I believe it for the sierra given the winds and volume of snow they can get.

But when is the last time a colorado resort closed mid-day for too much snow? A lift/sector maybe, eldora for too windy on ocassion, but just too much snow and an entire resort... Colo is famous for lots of smaller snowa over many days, not massive dumps (wolf creek excepted).

 

[Tony Crocker]

Would you like more examples? This week, for the first time that has morphed into "dry spells are equally likely in March or in December as in January". :roll:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11253&p=70798#p70755" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11880&p=74615#p74608" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=11839&p=74357#p74357" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hopefully we are about done with this :dead horse: because we agree that:
1) Dry spells are random events with similar probability throughout the core winter months.
2) Peak inversion season is mid-December to early February. Therefore January is the most frequent time for inversions.

 

[Admin]

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=11839&p=74357#p74356[/url] Marc_C wrote":9vlqymhh]
There's no point in arguing this further since for someone who thinks they're a master statistician you have a pig headed, basic misunderstanding about averages.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Tell me again what this has to do with averages?????

Consecutive snowless day streaks at Alta Collins since 2005:
Dec: 11,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,6,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Jan: 11,10,9,9,8,8,8,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4,3
Feb: 10,10,9,7,7,6,5,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3
Mar: 12,11,10,9,9,8,7,6,6,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3

Seriously, admin is just parroting MarcC's comment out of context. I posted the above data in response to that particular comment.

Does admin agree or not with the 2 points of my previous post?

1) Dry spells are random events with similar probability throughout the core winter months.
2) Peak inversion season is mid-December to early February. Therefore January is the most frequent time for inversions.

 

[Admin]

After a relentless series of storms, it's time for our mid-January dry spell.

The low will eventually split a bit with a southern trajectory bringing some active weather to southern Utah Thursday and Friday while northern Utah dries out. Then, we all clear out for the weekend with warming mountain temps (and valley inversions).

Long Range:

Definitely looks like our first extended break in a long time. Right now, it looks like we stay dry until later next week (around the 19th). After that, we should see the west coast get more active again, although it’s too far out for any details at this point.

 

[EMSC]

100% High avi danger in Colo today. Not a time to be in the backcountry, slack country or possibly even some of the inbounds I suspect is closed.

And to further :stir: I'm pretty sure I don't consider a 5-7 day period in the midst of historic snowfalls to exactly be a 'dry spell'. Let me know when you get little more than a couple inches (at most) scattered over 2-3 weeks and then we'll call it a 'dry spell'. You have big snows coming through about the 12th and then the next storm prognosticated on the 19th. That's called typical short term weather, not a 'dry spell'.

 

[Admin]

Work with me here. ;-)

 

[Marc_C]

I've seen that happen over here, too. It was either last year or the year before, but Alta didn't even bother to open one day due to avi danger.

Powder Mountain was closed yesterday(?) due to "unstable snow conditions" and Sundance closed at noon for the same reason plus wind.

 

[EMSC]

Work with me here.

Dry Slot in the midst of storms?

And lots of weather related news. I-70 closed from Vail to Copper from Avi debris
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/10/avalanches-close-colorado-mountain-roads/

CB is open again today, but Monarch is closed since Rt50 was closed all afternoon and last night so ski resort workers have been unable to get up and dig out among other tasks.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/10/monarch-mountain-colorado-ski-area-closed/