Where's the best 2019 Christmas snow destination?

[tseeb]

You do know that Vail is $219 walk-up over holidays? Not sure what Heavenly and Northstar will be charging, but advance purchase is $174 and $179, respectively and pass sales have ended. Aspen will also be ~$200/day. Kirkwood is $129 when I put in advance purchase dates of 12/26-31. I just posted report from Sat. 12/14. I forgot to add than not only were they running all lifts, I didn't notice until I've moved to Cornice in PM and someone pointed it out to me that they also were running T-bar to Lookout Vista which opens up a lot of E, S and W-facing terrain (and requires a ~100' vertical foot hike before loading).

While Kirkwood does not have much of a Village, they do have 7800, an independent bar/restaurant in base of condo tower near chair 1 (funky but decent food, live music some evenings and way cheaper beers than Vail-owned places nearby) and the Kirkwood Inn and Saloon (Vail-owned, 155 year-old building with good Happy Hour and food across highway from entrance to Valley) so OP could stay at Kirkwood a couple of nights (assuming availability) without being limited to on-mountain dining although not much for spouse to do if not skiing. (Dog-sledding?)

Tony Crocker is right about some current limitations at Tahoe. Squaw has not opened Headwall (or Emigrant or Solitude which led to long lines over weekend on other lifts) and Heavenly requires downloading if skiing out of CA base (where still free this year parking close to my family's cabin is located). Northstar has yet to open Backside and Martis Camp lift as both have bases around 6500' and their bean-counters may not have authorized snow-making. Rumor is Martis may open first as that allows multi-million $ homes in private road neighborhood access to mountain without sharing paid or very inconvenient parking with public.

Note that 12/26-31 at Tahoe may be less crowded than 1/1-5, assuming most lifts are running. Less than full passes are blacked out and most schools are off, so many people may be skiing starting New Years. We plan to drive up on NYE and ski (and probably quit) early the next few days.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

You do know that Vail is $219 walk-up over holidays? [...] Aspen will also be ~$200/day.

I was going to bring that up but didn't want to be a buzzkill. I'm putting the over/under on a holiday trip like this around $10K. Hey, if money's not a concern, why not?

 

[Tony Crocker]

I’m usually the one :dead horse: about the poor value proposition of Christmas Week but two of you have beat me to it this time.

I’ll just mention that Liz and I can fly from LA to the Alps, rent a car and ski 2 1/2 weeks at multiple resorts staying in nice hotels and dining very well for less than $10K.

 

[One Wolf]

I get it. I spend 355 days a year looking for value and squeezing every ounce of value of every interaction I'm involved in whether I'm the the seller or the buyer and I am both. This is the one week a year I say F it and go where I want, stay where we want, do what we want - and we love to ski. I'm not looking for the best value, I'm looking for the best experience. I can't take it with me.

 

[Tony Crocker]

It’s way late in the game here, but James or I should have mentioned the Alps earlier in this thread after the huge November many places had. I’ll bet from NC you could get a very nice week in the Alps for less than Aspen + Vail will cost. And the wife won’t be complaining about lack of non ski options over there.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

It’s way late in the game here, but James or I should have mentioned the Alps earlier in this thread after the huge November many places had. I’ll bet from NC you could get a very nice week in the Alps for less than Aspen + Vail will cost. And the wife won’t be complaining about lack of non ski options over there.

I got halfway through a post to suggest that ^^ -- especially after his comment "I'm not looking for the best value, I'm looking for the best experience" -- then deleted. Everyone here knows that given the choice, I'll always head east from NJ/NYC instead of west, whereas most Americans (even those on the east coast) reflexively fly west for their destination trips.

 

[Tony Crocker]

most Americans (even those on the east coast) reflexively fly west for their destination trips.

Which is exactly why we should have brought up the subject sooner, with a new poster from NC.

Most avid skiers in the East should IMHO take at least 1/3 of destination tips to the Alps vs. West. The exceptions would be people with some kind of recurring connection, like the large New Jersey contingent in our Iron Blosam timeshare group.

But for someone in One Wolf's situation

This is the one week a year I say F it and go where I want, stay where we want, do what we want - and we love to ski

The Alps should be on the rotation.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Which is exactly why we should have brought up the subject sooner, with a new poster from NC.

If he'd posted (much) earlier, we could've sent him to the Sandhof in Lech.

 

[Tony Crocker]

If he'd posted (much) earlier, we could've sent him to the Sandhof in Lech.

I wonder how much earlier for THAT week! Years, maybe.

But Lech in general would surely be one of our top recommendations for One Wolf.

 

[One Wolf]

Well bummer guys!! We even have valid passports from our Whistler trip 3 years back!

 

[Marc_C]

Everyone here knows that given the choice, I'll always head east from NJ/NYC instead of west, whereas most Americans (even those on the east coast) reflexively fly west for their destination trips.

A lot of people are intimidated by the Alps -
* unfamiliarity
* stories or perceptions of super gnarly terrain
* real or perceived language barrier
* unaware that it won't cost $$$$$$$$$$$
* the need for international medical insurance and, if renting a car, automobile insurance
* if not renting a car, the additional logistics of airport transfer, trains, etc.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

* the need for international medical insurance and, if renting a car, automobile insurance

I agree with your other points about perceptions vs. reality, but can you explain this one? You mean people think that they'll need special car and medical insurance over there?

For what One Wolf will spend at Aspen/Vail during Xmas Week, he could have a mind-blowing high-end trip in the Alps. Our own London-based travel advisor (Fraser Wilkin at Snow-Wise) could do all the legwork for him.

 

[One Wolf]

Where were you a week ago.

Vail is 86% open (terrain), Aspen 90%, so it won't entirely suck, and we've never been to either so it will be a great experience. My US flights are free on frequent flier miles, EU flights would have been on the order of at least $800 each (probably more) so there's at least $3k delta right there.

Perhaps next year.

Are the alps such that you can book well in advance of Christmas and be certain there will be plenty of open terrain? Obviously I have no idea.

 

[Marc_C]

* the need for international medical insurance and, if renting a car, automobile insurance

I agree with your other points about perceptions vs. reality, but can you explain this one? You mean people think that they'll need special car and medical insurance over there?

What makes you think your US medical insurance will work overseas? It may or may not - it depends on your carrier. If you're on Medicare or a Medicare Advantage plan, it definitely does not cover you outside the US.

Yes, overseas emergency care is usually "free", but if it requires hospitalization, you'll probably be charged. Sometimes your medical will reimburse those expenses, but you'll still need to pay up front. I know of an appendicitis incident in Switzerland where the person had to pay the hospital 8,000 euro before leaving.

Your US medical definitely does not cover a medical repatriation flight. Sometimes that may require a business or first class ticket. If an actual medical ambulance flight is required, that can run $35K US.

Often you can get medical included in a travel insurance package which covers a bunch of other things, including repatriation. A comprehensive $1M travel insurance package for our two week trip to Scotland, covering both of us, cost $275 US. We bought it because our medical insurance carrier at the time told me we had zero coverage in Europe.

Basically everything said about medical above applies to car insurance as well.

Take a look at this piece: https://www.ricksteves.com/travel-tips/trip-planning/travel-insurance

 

[Tony Crocker]

I pay $200 per year for both of us for AMEX travel medical including evacuation. Only exclusion is pre-existing conditions. Ice Axe was satisfied with this policy for the Antarctic trip in 2011.

I have Delta FF status and we are using miles for our March trip to the Alps as we did for both trips in 2018. I realize using miles to fly at Christmas is probably next to impossible. I’m surprised One Wolf can use them in the US at Christmas in short notice.

No I would not in general be comfortable booking the Alps for Christmas several months ahead. Maybe the Arlberg or Val D’Isere. But with no plans as of Dec. 14 James or I should have referred One Wolf to Fraser for one stop shopping.

I do not think Aspen and Vail will suck in the slightest this year. But the value of waiting late to book is to take advantage of the areas that have the best current conditions.

 

[sierra_cement]

It's funny that people are commenting about how expensive this trip will be while OP has followed recommended advice of not booking a Xmas trip until conditions are good.

I have a feeling that on average, it's better to book a trip in advance to the more reliable destinations to save on flight and lodging costs. I saw a timeshare exchange available for Xmas 2020 in Beaver Creek with my cheap resale timeshare week in Arizona. Cost around $1000 for a week. But I decided against it due to the snow risk. I may do a similar timeshare booking for Steamboat or Mt. Bachelor in future, which have a better record. It looks like this year Mt. Bachelor is deficient while California is good.

You may lose to bad conditions once every X years, but still come out ahead when averaged over a decade. Now the value of X changes for the locations. Based on Tony's data, X is large for Targhee and Whistler. Risk is higher for the Sierras.

To understand this risk, I added up the historical November and December snowfalls for a few destinations in this thread :
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards ... =3&t=14004" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Tony Crocker]

It's funny that people are commenting about how expensive this trip will be while OP has followed recommended advice of not booking a Xmas trip until conditions are good.

There two separate issues here. The primary one, which I routinely advocate, is to book ski destinations once there is some favorable weather evidence for that destination, recognizing that climate is what you expect and weather is what you get. The earlier in the season you are considering a trip, the more you have to rely on history (climate) rather than the track record of the current season. sierra_cement has therefore researched the history and come up with a "Top 5" early season list that is quite consistent with the snow data I have collected.

Many here have been :dead horse: about the cost of skiing during Christmas Week. But a further disadvantage is that availability of flights and sometimes lodging may be problematic, forcing far advance booking and increasing risk of a poor experience unless sticking with a quite short list of resorts.

As far as One Wolf is concerned, note his opening statement:

I have one kid in college and one in high school and their spring breaks don't overlap so we are stuck with Christmas break being our only extended time to make a trip. It sucks but it is what it is.

I think this shows a recognition that spring break is a better option for most families, and for 15 years most of my 1 week destination ski trips were during my son Adam's spring break.

So I think ski trips during Christmas Week are a relatively new subject for One Wolf. I also occasionally indulge in travel many would put in the category

This is the one week a year I say F it and go where I want, stay where we want, do what we want - and we love to ski. I'm not looking for the best value, I'm looking for the best experience.

But I try to confine the high cost trips to places with no cheap alternatives (Iceland, Antarctica, some of the difficult eclipse destinations). I strongly resist paying the big $$ for destinations where one can get just as good an experience for less cost at a different time.

If Christmas Week is going to be a recurring issue while One Wolf's older son is in college, it might be worth investing in an Ikon, Epic or Mountain Collective for those future seasons. With those passes there is some degree of flexibility in choosing the destination on short notice and not getting reamed for lift ticket prices.

 

[sierra_cement]

sierra_cement has therefore researched the history and come up with a "Top 5" early season list that is quite consistent with the snow data I have collected.

My conclusions are not independent from yours since it is based on your data. I just wanted to get a feel for why those recommendations make sense so decided to deep dive into the raw data.

As far as One Wolf is concerned, note his opening statement:

I have one kid in college and one in high school and their spring breaks don't overlap so we are stuck with Christmas break being our only extended time to make a trip. It sucks but it is what it is.

I think this shows a recognition that spring break is a better option for most families, and for 15 years most of my 1 week destination ski trips were during my son Adam's spring break.

I understand now that spring is a better time to ski. I didn't grow up around ski areas so it took me a while to understand that snow that falls in the ski areas usually doesn't melt until April, the exception being south facing and low elevation terrain. So it's clear to me now that spring skiing has more favorable odds than Christmas.

With limited vacation time in the US, Christmas skiing is unavoidable for many. Last year I took 6 days off work and got 14 ski days in from Dec 21 to Jan 6th. This year I'm taking 5 days off in Feb and will only get 8 ski days in. If you have 15 vacation days per year, how do you maximize your ski days over a decade if you don't have a big ski budget? I feel like an occasional bad season is the price you pay for maximizing your vacation time in the long run. I'm curious to hear your take on it.

If Christmas Week is going to be a recurring issue while One Wolf's older son is in college, it might be worth investing in an Ikon, Epic or Mountain Collective for those future seasons. With those passes there is some degree of flexibility in choosing the destination on short notice and not getting reamed for lift ticket prices.

It's not the best destination for this Chrismas, but one recommendation you have made is Mt. Bachelor. You don't even need to buy a season pass in advance. They sell a 30 day pass all season long for $629.
https://book.mtbachelor.com/#/season-pa ... re-30-pass" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I know a few poeple who have moved to Bend. They really like the town as well.

 

[tseeb]

Mountain Collective is still available through this weekend, but OP will have to decide if it’s worth it to him. For $529, you get two days at each destination, no blackout dates, and 50% off any additional days. The only CO ski area besides Aspen (where you get 2 free days total, not 2 at each Aspen area), is Arapahoe Basin.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Now that this thread has hit 40 posts, it's time for One Wolf to pull a Gpaul and not go or otherwise ignore all the suggestions. :lol: