American Election 2024

Is it fair to say that the polls now are more likely underestimate Republican vote?
Not necessarily. There's a detail analysis of polling by Nate Silver in today's NY Times. The link is paywalled. Perhaps James can fix that.

Key points:
1) Nonresponse bias: "It's not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it's that in 2016 and 2020 pollsters weren't reaching enough of them." Pollsters are aware of this issue and may massage data to correct for it. Will they massage not enough or too much?
2) The Bradley effect: Black L.A. mayor Tom Bradley underperformed his polls running for governor of California in 1982. It was hypothesized that some voters didn't admit to pollsters they wouldn't vote for a black candidate. That was a long time ago, and Obama didn't underperform his polls. Is there a similar effect with respect to a female president? No one knows.
3) One data massaging technique is "weighting on recalled vote," that is utilizing who people voted for in the last election. But people misremember or misstate and are more likely to say they voted for the winner.
4) 2020 COVID restrictions: Democrats were more likely to stay at home and be available for pollsters' phone calls, obviously a one time effect.
5) Historically, high turnout elections favored Democrats. With the recent sharp shift in voting based upon level of education, this is probably not true any more, the 2022 midterms being Exhibit A.

Pollsters can have herd mentality. Silver tries to construct a probability distribution of results. He would not be surprised to see a big polling failure in either direction. He sees a 60% chance that one candidate will sweep at least 6 of the 7 swing states.
 
Washington Post and LA Times recently chose to consciously not endorse either Dem or GOP presidential candidate. I don't know what to make of this? They routinely endorse Dem candidates and the headlines from both papers have been overwhelmingly pro Dem and anti GOP all year (and all of recent history). There are theories that the owners of the papers directed this against the wishes of their editorial boards and are trying to protect their interests in case DJT wins. That doesn't completely make sense to me because the tone of daily reporting hasn't changed?? Also, Jeff Bezos (owner of the Washington Post) is known to be a pretty progressive guy. I don't think Patrick Soon-Shiong (owner of the LA Times) is particularly close to the GOP either. Maybe those guys are just as confused as me about how to vote in this election? :)

PS: here is an explainer piece from WaPo about the non-endorsement, with about 40k comments, 99% of which are "cancel my subscription":devilish:
 
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When a Central Policy Platform is Revenge, this is just the beginning of the kowtow - especially for business leaders in heavily regulated industries.

I don’t blame them - if you had a 50% chance of a Trump presidency - and loss of business due to tariffs, gvt contracts, Anti-trust suits, badmouthing from bully pulpit, worker citizenship verification, etc. - it’s an easy Expected Value decision. Mollify Trump.


“These guys can hear the music. They’ve seen the sides being chosen: Elon Musk and Peter Theil assembling with Trump’s gangster government in waiting. They see Mark Zuckerberg praising Trump as a ‘badass.’ And now they see Bezos getting in line, too.”

“What’s remarkable is that Trump didn’t have to arrest Bezos to secure his compliance. Trump didn’t even have to win the election. Just the fact that he has an even-money chance to become president was threat enough.”

“Or maybe that’s not remarkable. One of Timothy Snyder’s rules for resisting authoritarians is that ‘most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given.’ People surrender preemptively much more often than you might expect.”
 
Maybe those guys are just as confused as me about how to vote in this election? :)
I say this with a large helping of respect but how could you consider voting for someone who has made it clear that he will seek retribution by “using the military” on people of the USA that might have a different political persuasion? That’s the definition of fascism.
I often vote conservative but could not consider for one second voting for a man that resembles most things I stand against.
 
Their billionaire owners are afraid of retaliation if DJT wins as we all should be.
Fascism.

I’m hoping the women of America turn out in force and give the candidate that isn’t a lunatic the presidency. Then perhaps Trump becomes nothing but a bad memory and the Republicans can get back to being a real option for millions of Americans that need a strong and stable conservative side of politics.
 
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I recalled that the L.A. Times did not make endorsements for president (and possibly governor or senator) for some time. I found out that time frame was 1976-2004. They resumed endorsing for president starting with Obama in 2008. I think it's reasonable for a paper to have a long standing policy of not endorsing for president. I think it's a very bad look to initiate that policy in 2024 if you endorsed in 2016 and 2020.

The L.A. Times also had a least three staffers resign plus a bunch of letters from people canceling subscriptions. As I've noted before, the current incarnation of the L.A. Times is well left of center and they have endorsed Adam Schiff for Senator.
 
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Apologies for earlier emotive posts. I should know better.
No apology needed. I think it's good for US voters to hear what people from other countries think about our election. My host for three nights in England last month said he considered our election a test of our intelligence that he hoped we would pass by not electing Trump again. See https://www.usnews.com/news/special...ts/articles/ranking-americas-worst-presidents for how Trump rates.

From https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/26/harris-trump-college-educated-voters/ which was not behind paywall for me: "Across national polls, Harris leads by 19 percentage points among college graduates, slightly above President Joe Biden’s 17-point margin in exit polls and comparable sources in 2020. Among non-college-educated voters, Trump leads by nine points — slightly higher than his five-point margin in 2020." Trump also has a substantial lead among non-college educated men who either don't realize or don't benefit from the US economy having the best recovery from COVID and post-COVID inflation of any of the G7. See https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-economy-2024-gdp-g7-nationsn't

I hadn't posted in this thread for a while and was wondering when reviewing my first post in it from yesterday and researched whether retaliation, retribution or revenge was the best word for what Trump has been threatening I found https://www.npr.org/2024/10/22/nx-s...eats-to-prosecute-or-punish-perceived-enemies
 
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I say this with a large helping of respect but how could you consider voting for someone who has made it clear that he will seek retribution by “using the military” on people of the USA that might have a different political persuasion?
Bret Stephens of the NYTimes wrote a detailed answer to this question last week. It's paywalled, and my means of reading it are confined to a phone app. Stephens overall has political views that are in the range of mine or Jimk's but believes Trump is every bit as dangerous as tseeb or ChrisC do. After months of prodding from liberal columnist Gail Collins in their joint Monday column, Stephens very recently said said he would hold his nose and vote for Harris vs. abstaining, reiterating that his vote was 99.999% a vote against Trump.

The article is titled "There's One Main Culprit if Donald Trump Wins," that being "the way in which leading liberal voices in government, academia and media practice politics today."

The politics of condescension: Those non-college educated men tseeb cites do have stagnating real incomes vs. the 2016-19 period and were hurt by the inflation spike, and don't need to be lectured about how their counterparts in other countries had it worse.
The politics of name calling: Characterization of Trump voters as racists, misogynists, weird, phobic are a turnoff, especially since most of those voters think the Biden/Harris years have been bad for them and the country. Engage the argument without belittling the person.
The politics of gaslighting: The Democratic establishment and their MSNBC cheerleaders repeatedly vouched for Biden's mental and physical fitness for months in advance of the June debate debacle. Even if they are correct in extolling Harris' virtues now, why should the public trust them?
The politics of high handedness: Do liberals believe there is no resentment about Harris being the nominee without running in a primary or facing a challenger? My Trump supporting friend at last night's World Series game delivered the same talking point Stephens made: "A Democratic Party that claims to defend democracy is not bothering to practice it."
The politics of Pollyanna: Just because inflation has subsided recently, that does not relieve the legacy of higher prices and interest rates. This is undoubtedly a bigger deal to younger people who don't remember the 1970's inflation and 1980's mortgage rates. Biden's change in border policy immediately unleashed a flood of unregulated immigration and the Democrats waited until the election year to acknowledge the problem. Any Trump supporter you talk to will skewer you on this topic. And while the crime piece of the border argument is mostly BS, they are right about the sheer numbers, as lots of Democratic mayors will attest.
The politics of selective fidelity to traditional norms: Trump's threats against the media, political opponents and the civil service need no repeating here. But the liberal establishment is not above strong arming social media into quashing stories/opinions it dislikes (Hunter Biden's laptop, origins of COVID, etc.). Many people who warn of Trumps' dictatorial aspirations are fine with sweeping executive orders (i.e. student loan forgiveness) done by "our side." The New York cases against Trump look political to many people, so Trump supporters make the argument that the more serious election obstruction cases are also political. I heard this argument last night too.
The politics of identity over class: This is the "woke/critical theory ideology" that people like Bill Maher and Andrew Sullivan have been bemoaning for years. It's a huge turnoff for centrists/independents and and an easy target for politicians like Trump and DeSantis.

Hopefully the above is illuminating to sbooker. I've said before that even those of us who are history junkies usually know minimal details of the nuts and bolts internal politics of foreign countries.
 
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The New York cases against Trump look political to many people, so Trump supporters make the argument that the more serious election obstruction cases are also political.

Maybe it would seem less political if there was some kind of hierarchy of prosecution, where pressuring officials to change vote counts takes precedence over cheating on your taxes.
 
cheating on your taxes.
was a case filed by New York State.
pressuring officials to change vote counts
That was Georgia, and separately part of Jack Smith's election obstruction case.

It's not an accident that the cases that have come closest to a conclusion were in Democratic New York. The Georgia and Federal special prosecutor cases were more susceptible to delaying tactics by Trump's lawyers and in some cases friendlier judicial reviews.

So there was no hierarchy of prosecutions with 3 different jurisdictions. I agree with Harvey 100% that the election interference cases deserved top priority. But Jack Smith was not even appointed special prosecutor until November 2022. Bill Maher ripped Merrick Garland a new one for that possibly fatal delay. Maybe Garland was waiting for the House Jan. 6 Committee to complete its final report.
 
Bret Stephens of the NYTimes wrote a detailed answer to this question last week. It's paywalled, and my means of reading it are confined to a phone app. Stephens overall has political views that are in the range of mine or Jimk's but believes Trump is every bit as dangerous as tseeb or ChrisC do. After months of prodding from liberal columnist Gail Collins in their joint Monday column, Stephens very recently said said he would hold his nose and vote for Harris vs. abstaining, reiterating that his vote was 99.999% a vote against Trump.

The article is titled "There's One Main Culprit if Donald Trump Wins," that being "the way in which leading liberal voices in government, academia and media practice politics today."

The politics of condescension: Those non-college educated men tseeb cites do have stagnating real incomes vs. the 2016-19 period and were hurt by the inflation spike, and don't need to be lectured about how their counterparts in other countries had it worse.
The politics of name calling: Characterization of Trump voters as racists, misogynists, weird, phobic are a turnoff, especially since most of those voters think the Biden/Harris years have been bad for them and the country. Engage the argument without belittling the person.
The politics of gaslighting: The Democratic establishment and their MSNBC cheerleaders repeatedly vouched for Biden's mental and physical fitness for months in advance of the June debate debacle. Even if they are correct in extolling Harris' virtues now, why should the public trust them?
The politics of high handedness: Do liberals believe there is no resentment about Harris being the nominee without running in a primary or facing a challenger? My Trump supporting friend at last night's World Series game delivered the same talking point Stephens made: "A Democratic Party that claims to defend democracy is not bothering to practice it."
The politics of Pollyanna: Just because inflation has subsided recently, that does not relieve the legacy of higher prices and interest rates. This is undoubtedly a bigger deal to younger people who don't remember the 1970's inflation and 1980's mortgage rates. Biden's change in border policy immediately unleashed a flood of unregulated immigration and the Democrats waited until the election year to acknowledge the problem. Any Trump supporter you talk to will skewer you on this topic. And while the crime piece of the border argument is mostly BS, they are right about the sheer numbers, as lots of Democratic mayors will tell you.
The politics of selective fidelity to traditional norms: Trump's threats against the media, political opponents and the civil service need no repeating here. But the liberal establishment is not above strong arming social media into quashing stories/opinions it dislikes (Hunter Biden's laptop, origins of COVID, etc.). Many people who warn of Trumps' dictatorial aspirations are fine with sweeping executive orders (i.e. student loan forgiveness) done by "our side." The New York cases against Trump look political to many people, so Trump supporters make the argument that the more serious election obstruction cases are also political. I heard this argument last night too.
The politics of identity over class: This is the "woke/critical theory ideology" that people like Bill Maher and Andrew Sullivan have been bemoaning for years. It's a huge turnoff for centrists/independents and and an easy target for politicians like Trump and DeSantis.

Hopefully the above is illuminating to sbooker. I've said before that even those of us who are history junkies usually know minimal details of the nuts and bolts internal politics of foreign countries.
Thanks. I appreciate the time you've taken to do that as we all know as an outsider this is none of my business anyway.
What you point out is illuminating. I was aware of some of those points to some degree though as they're not just an American thing I suppose.

Interestingly I would be one of those non college educated males even though I'm technically a bit older than 50. I'm not very bright or educated but Trump's performance after the 2020 election would preclude me from ever voting for him again.

I don't know if this is some kind of pointer to how things will play out on a national level but my wife's aunt in Salt Lake City will be voting Democrat for the first time ever at this election. Her recently passed husband was in the oil and gas industry and they have been through and through Republicans for decades. Her change of side this time also revolves around the aftermath of the 2020 election.

All of this is very interesting and your post just highlights that politics is certainly very nuanced. It's hard to predict what the citizens of the USA are going to do over the next week and a bit.
 
The Georgia prosecutor was the regular D.A. for Fulton County, and yes she f**ed up. By special prosecutor I mean specifically the ones appointed by Federal Justice Department to conduct independent inquiries. In this case that's Jack Smith, with 2 cases, one in D.C. for election interference and one in Florida for Trump's classified documents at Mar-A-Lago.
 
Trump never ceases to amaze me with his ability to surround himself with wildly incompetent people. Apparently, no one in the campaign vetted Tony Hinchcliffe’s routine for Trump’s very own night at the garden yesterday evening. Tomorrow, Trump is holding a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, a majority Latino city, in an arena located in the heart of Pennsylvania’s largest Puerto Rican community. The local school district is now concerned enough about possible protests that it has cancelled classes for tomorrow. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/28/trump-rally-puerto-rico-pennsylvania-fallout-00185935

Insulting and incensing many of the voters from one of the largest Latino communities in what is arguably the most important swing state less than 48 hours before holding a rally in the center of that community to ask for their votes with only seven days left to campaign does not sound to me like a winning strategy to siphon votes from the Harris campaign. You can’t make this stuff up.

Who knows? Maybe Bad Bunny’s endorsement of Harris will prove more valuable than Taylor Swift’s.
 
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Las Vegas Sun endorses Harris and says "While we understand the belief held by many Americans that they are being left behind, Trump is not the answer. His disregard for democratic institutions, tarnishing of the judiciary and inability to conceive of a government that serves anyone or anything beyond his personal interests are the hallmarks of an aspiring dictator. Harris, on the other hand, offers the stability and confidence of a veteran public servant and the bold vision, energy and adaptability that is needed in a rapidly evolving world."

A separate article includes "Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency. But as he continues his bid for a second term in the White House, there is an unsettling and undeniable shift that is leading many experts, observers and even some Trump supporters to conclude that the former president’s mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline, that his physical health and stamina are waning and that his frustration and anger are boiling over."

Edit to add https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/billionaire-owners-wapo-la-times-19877875.php
 
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Remember we get a secret ballot, but our friends and neighbors who wanna advocate for Trump, well, some of them are either humiliated or angry and weak. Small. Freud would have a field day, see...

...is pure projection. Trump's saying he thinks he appeals to the aggrieved. He can't imagine how Biden isn't aggrieved. Trump wants Biden to feel Trump's pain, as his own. It's a Pity Party.

The truth is stranger than fiction...
 
Another followed by another followed by another comment/action by Trump would have been a fatal blow to any other candidate in the past….

His latest comment openly fantasizing putting Liz Cheney in front of a firing squat clearly marks what is at stake at this election.

Choice between a sane person versus a sexual predator, felon, corrupt dangerous unstable psychopath with delusion of grandeur.
 
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