American Election 2024

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Sbooker is not the only Aussie following the American election. Joe Cali is an Aussie eclipse chaser who hosted 100 of us in Trinity Beach near Cairns for TSE2021. Joe in turn was part of our 40 person group in Jackson in 2017. In addition to linking the pic above, he posted this after observing recent auroras:
After nearly 2 weeks of nights with clear weather, I packed up my telescopes yesterday and put them inside. It's raining today. My thanks to the Norwegian Weather Service who provide incredibly accurate forecasts for this area.

I don't have an observatory although, I DO HAVE A CONCEPT OF AN OBSERVATORY. Unfortunately, my concept of an observatory does not keep the rain off my telescopes nor stop them from getting wet because IT'S NOT AN OBSERVATORY. I do have a concept of them staying dry and that's the same thing isn't it?

Disclaimer: No dogs, cats, guinea pigs or other family pets were eaten in the making of this post. My god he's such an idiot.
COVFEFE!
😂
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Tony Crocker said:
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Sbooker is not the only Aussie following the American election. Joe Cali is an Aussie eclipse chaser who hosted 100 of us in Trinity Beach near Cairns for TSE2021. Joe in turn was part of our 40 person group in Jackson in 2017. In addition to linking the pic above, he posted this after observing recent auroras:
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The election is big news in Australia for lots of people. If only Australian’s weren’t so apathetic about our own politics.
 
Sbooker said:
I think Mr Trump may be unraveling.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1834682187800826186
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IMO, there are two problems with this statement:

(1) the use of the words “may be,” rather than “has,” and
(2) the use of the present tense, rather than the past tense, in conjugation of the verb “unravel.”

To me, the truly frightening thing about this election, is that millions and millions of voters appear to understand this, and will vote for him anyways.
 
Flyover is correct. Trump has been making outrageous statements since he descended that escalator in 2015.

If by unraveling, you mean the weird stuff like Hannibal Lecter, electrocuting sharks, eating the dogs and cats, that stuff has gotten worse with age.

The outrage doesn't change anyone's opinion any more. The Harris campaign should focus more on ridicule, as the Republicans did with Biden and as Harris herself did some in the debate. And making Trump look weak or silly (i.e. size of his rallies) provokes more unraveling. Portraying Biden as senile was effective in eroding his support. There's plenty of ammunition to do the same to Trump.
 
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flyover said:
To me, the truly frightening thing about this election, is that millions and millions of voters appear to understand this, and will vote for him anyways.
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Yep, they are all in. I think this is hilarious but the person carrying the sign is not doing it ironically.
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Trump dearly misses his wellness and nutrition coach Herman Cain, and infers that the MyPillow guy will head the 2028 GOP ticket...

 
Not exactly election related, but maybe indirectly. Anyway this is a deep dive on the Consumer Price Index and any self respecting actuary :) should get a kick out of it: WaPo The Number.
 
Only a couple of weeks to go. Our media are giving us blow by blow, almost hourly updates. The US election is most certainly overshadowing this weekend’s QLD state election.
Does it feel “too close to call” as portrayed by the media?
 
Sbooker said:
Only a couple of weeks to go. Our media are giving us blow by blow, almost hourly updates.
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Seems crazy to me. I don't even follow it day to day, let alone hour to hour... and I'm not half way across the planet either.

Sbooker said:
Does it feel “too close to call” as portrayed by the media?
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I find it very hard to judge that. Cities are very for Kamala and Rural areas are very for Trump. There are no visible in-between areas. So how many people are 'silent' but in the suburbs of cities that will decide the election is very unclear to me personally. Could be razer thin margins like the media says; but impossible to tell in my everyday life.
 
EMSC said:
Seems crazy to me. I don't even follow it day to day, let alone hour to hour... and I'm not half way across the planet either.
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That's my point. It can only be the Trump factor.
I had a workmate who couldn't name more than 4 members of our Australian parliament tell me "they're in Pennsylvania and that state is crucial to the outcome". The same fellow has never been to the USA let alone Pennsylvania.
A mate of a mate wore a Trump 2024 T shirt to a barbie I attended last weekend. It's utter madness.
 
Sbooker said:
Does it feel “too close to call” as portrayed by the media?
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People who talk to pollsters are now less representative of everyone who will ultimately vote.

So it is too close to call. It's almost like the margin for error for polling has increased.
 
Harvey said:
So it is too close to call. It's almost like the margin for error for polling has increased.
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Yes.

The overall error in 2016 was 1.9%, which is average for presidential elections going back to the 1950's. But there was a fuss about it because the election was close enough that the error predicted the wrong winner. While the national error was 1.9%, the error in several key midwestern states was much more. Post mortem analysis indicated that polling results were not adjusted for level of education, which did not have a significant bias before 2016.

I took these notes in Dec. 2020 after the polls failed worse than in 2016: The national popular vote predicted Dem margin in 2016 was 4 points while actual was 2.1%. The national popular vote predicted Dem margin in 2020 was 8 points while actual was 4.5%. Electoral College bias in favor of Reps was 2.86% in 2016 but rose to 3.82% in 2020. Wisconsin was the tipping point state again, and it moved another 1.1% more Republican than the country as a whole. 3.82% is a historically big number, and what it will take to change that is Georgia and Arizona becoming more Democratic to displace Wisconsin (and also Pennsylvania) as potential tipping point states.

Worst polling failures by state: Montana 9.9%, Maine-2 8.3%, Wisconsin 7.7%, Ohio 7.4%, Iowa 6.7%, Missouri 6.0%, Florida 5.8%, Michigan 5.2%, South Carolina 4.2%, Texas 4.1%.

We talked to Harold Nov. 4, discussed the sad state of political polling: errors at least as bad as in 2016 (6-7% errors in some Midwest states already known). Poorly crafted questions, bad samples are ongoing issues. About 1 in 200 respond to phone surveys vs. 1 in 8 when Harold worked at DMI in the 1970's. I believe Trump voters are not "shy" but are less inclined to respond to pollsters whom they regard as part of the "lamestream media."

I have read recently that the Electoral College bias is lower than in 2020. Republican share is increasing in some big states, notably Florida, that will not flip from one side to the other.

Polling was quite accurate in the 2022 midterm elections. It's anyone's guess how the pollsters are trying to correct for their large errors in 2020 and whether they can do that accurately.
 
Thanks Tony.

Is it fair to say that the polls now are more likely underestimate Republican vote?
 
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EMSC said:
Cities are very for Kamala and Rural areas are very for Trump.
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So yesterday I was waiting in an exam room with the door open at my optometrist's office in St. Paul when another patient walked past in the hallway with a tech leading her either to or from another exam room. By appearance, she was pretty close to stereotypical for sweet little old lady. She was speaking to the tech and I only heard one statement as they walked past the door: "THEY think all democrats are socialists. I mean f__king-a!"
 
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