American Election 2024

Sbooker said:
^^^
Serious question. How is $25 “or more” going to change the outcome of the election? Even if a 10 million people donate how does $250 million change people’s minds? By advertising?
I don’t think so…….
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Someone who donates $25 is more likely to actually vote for whoever they are supporting.

Just as someone who pledges for a Kickstarter campaign for something new related to skiing is more likely to pay attention to see if the campaign is successful. Assuming they decide to pledge before it's obvious that the campaign will reach the goal, more likely to mention to others than if they are a casual bystander.

jamesdeluxe said:
True. I wonder what that entails in swing states -- giving undecided voters gift certificates for the local Applebee's? Is that illegal?
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Printing local flyers, door tags, and/or posters costs money. Being in North Carolina, which is very much a battleground state at the state (Governor, Lt. Gov., District Attorney) and federal level, I expect to see roadside signs popping up everywhere in the next few weeks. Early voting starts mid-October.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
True. I wonder what that entails in swing states -- giving undecided voters gift certificates for the local Applebee's? Is that illegal?
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Get out the vote means encouraging those LIKELY to vote your way, to actually vote. It doesn't focus on undecided.
 
Any talk about the debate on the ground? The media seems to say Harris did well. What do normal Americans think?

Does Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris move the needle?
 
Sbooker said:
Does Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris move the needle?
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I can't imagine any musician's endorsement moving the needle for politicians in either direction. In fact I also can't imagine Unions or other politicians endorsements making any particularly material movement either.

I get the sense that endorsements may have actually been a thing pre-1990's as to providing any visible effect in the US national elections.
 
Even Murdock's NY Post had to admit how poorly he did last night; however, whether it moves the needle on the comparatively small number of undecideds in swing states remains to be seen. It's more likely that the debate or Taylor Swift might help turn-out-the-vote efforts. Still, the election is 55 days and many news cycles away.

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jamesdeluxe said:
whether it moves the needle on the comparatively small number of undecideds in swing states remains to be seen. It's more likely that [snip]
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I disagree. Remember we get a secret ballot, but our friends and neighbors who wanna advocate for Trump, well, some of them are either humiliated or angry and weak. Small. Freud would have a field day, see...
Even Murdock's NY Post...
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...is pure projection. Trump's saying he thinks he appeals to the aggrieved. He can't imagine how Biden isn't aggrieved. Trump wants Biden to feel Trump's pain, as his own. It's a Pity Party.

Pro Tip: if you want the normal people around you, who you interact with, to feel sorry for you...then advocate for Trump.
 
We watched when we got home from the Dodger game. Liz got a text during the game from someone who was "giddy" at Trump's unhinged behavior. I recorded the debate on both PBS and Fox to see how the postmortems would be spun. On Fox only Jesse Watters (whom I don't know) went so far as to say Trump won the debate. Hannity and some others spun that the moderators were much harder on Trump than Harris.
 
The liberal media is certainly calling it a homerun for Harris. More so today then last night IMO.

Trump probably did get rougher treatment. But, to some extent, when your truth is so far out there, you're going to invite more fact checking.

Eating pets kind of has to be looked into.
 
EMSC said:
I can't imagine any musician's endorsement moving the needle
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Me neither, but we're sensible people. Sometimes we forget there are idiots out there who elected Arnold I'll Be Back Schwarzenegger, Jesse the Body Ventura, and Donald You're Fired Trump...

#TVfriends
 
Sbooker said:
I thought it might get the kids out to vote.
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My instinct is to agree with EMSC.

However, elections do appear to be affected by social media, and with 280 million Instagram followers (I know many are likely international, but still, 280 million!), Swift is much more than just a musician. Swift's Instagram post included a link to Vote.gov. According to the Times, in 24 hours after Swift's Instagram post, there were a total of 405,999 visits to Vote.gov referred through the link posted by Swift. Prior to Swift's endorsement, Vote.gov averaged 30,000 visitors a day in early September.

I still don't think it is likely Swift's endorsement will move the needle, but I think I can at least imagine it.
 
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I love the "and why this one might be different" tag line.

Very unlikely to be different. I suspect the vast majority of any young voters signing up or swayed will be in states already considered 'decided' for the current VP. To matter it would have to have at least several tens of thousands per state in the swing states especially. And then they would also have to actually show up in those kinds of numbers and vote too. I find that unlikely in the apathetic style overall voting culture in the US.
 
Tom Bonier, a Democratic political strategist and C.E.O. of data and polling firm TargetSmart, on CBS News, stating an unprecedented increase in voter registrations occurred following the debate/Swift endorsement:

Tom Bonier on CBS News (via X)

Also found this in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Wisconsin voter registrations bumped by 1,300 after Taylor Swift's Harris endorsement

It may be interesting to see what the registration data looks like in a week or two.

Also, in the CBS News clip, Bonier claims their data shows that 80% of voters that register this close to an election actually turn out to vote.
 
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