Europe 23/24

[ChrisC]

Between now and Saturday morning we can expect between 15cm and 30cm of new snow above 1500m across most of the Alps, but 40-50cm or even more across some central-southern and southeastern regions such as St Moritz, Livigno, Passo Tonale and Cortina.

Looking even further ahead, it seems likely that the weather in the Alps will remain cool and changeable early next week with further snow for some, the heaviest of which will again fall in the southern Alps.

Snow conditions will obviously improve in many areas over the next few days, particularly in the southern Alps. However, the lack of snow at low altitudes remains an issue and at this time of year it takes a lot of snow to rebuild any base

This upcoming storm may or may not improve the Canales/Couloirs in the Dolomites of the Paso Pordoi cable car. The north-facing areas - Val Mesdi, Canale Holzer, and Val Lasties might be good, but the south-facing areas like Canale Joel look a little marginal.

I follow this local Dolomites guide, Francesco Termolada, to get accurate off-piste/couloir conditions.

Francesco Tremolada

Francesco Tremolada is on Facebook. Join Facebook to connect with Francesco Tremolada and others you may know. Facebook gives people the power to share and makes the world more open and connected.

www.facebook.com

 

[ChrisC]

A hugely stereotypical question regarding your profession here but being from the NE of USA are you a banker or law guy by any chance?

Everyone in the SF Bay Area works in VC or technology.

Everyone in Boston works in consulting, mutual funds, or tech.

Everyone in NYC area is a corporate lawyer, banker, private equity, or hedge fund guy.

Everyone in a ski town is a realtor, instructor, retailer/rental, or bar/restaurant. (Well, they almost all have a realtor's license).

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Everyone in NYC area is a corporate lawyer, banker, private equity, or hedge fund guy.

And then there's someone like me -- in law enforcement!

 

[skiandgolfnut]

Pretty crazy it doesn’t snow for a month and now this. Seems like forecasts disagree about what happens after Tuesday so going to wait a few days and see what shakes out. Seems hard to fathom a week long storm cycle in the Dolomites but that’s what open snow and wepowder both seem to be suggesting. Snow-forecast has actually become the most promising of the bunch with a few sunny days towards the end of next week. Hopefully there is some consensus in the next 48 hours and we can make some decisions.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Pretty crazy it doesn’t snow for a month and now this.

Our snow expert will be here soon to remind us that broadly speaking the Alps tend to get their accumulations in big increments separated by longer dry spells.

 

[Sbooker]

Our snow expert will be here soon to remind us that broadly speaking the Alps tend to get their accumulations in big increments separated by longer dry spells.

I thought Tony had previously suggested the marquee French resorts get their snow Colorado style. ie semi regular relatively small accumulations? I could be wrong on that though. Regardless it's good to see some instability back in the forecast for Europe.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I thought Tony had previously suggested the marquee French resorts get their snow Colorado style

That's in terms of average distribution, fairly even November-April, no midwinter bulge. In terms of volatility, no. The Alps resorts with enough data show more volatility than any region in North America except California.

 

[ChrisC]

I did an Andermatt (3 days), Arosa- Lenzerheide, Laax-Flims and St. Moritz (3 days) where it snowed 4 out of 8 days. Great trip!

Yes there were some socked in moments to retreat to trees or couloirs, but there are always storm breaks.

You simply look at webcams on your mobile phone where sun breaks are.

I did St Anton/Arlberg for 7 days with 50% storm days. Best powder skiing trip ever. Well that and Japan.

Sounds like Goldilocks syndrome - too snowy, too cloudy, too this or that. Skiing never really goes according to plan.

Again, some of the most promising forecasts since December. Also, very low snow levels with these systems. Doesn’t get much better.

I’d pull the trigger no questions asked. Im even looking to see if Dolomite steep skiing comes into play.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I'm not sure how long skiandgolfnut's trip is, but my impression is two weeks. I would definitely pull the trigger on the airfare and car rental. With this kind of forecast it's going to be really good somewhere, and a few days ahead you'll be able to narrow it down.

 

[skiandgolfnut]

I thought I mentioned in my OP but it is a short trip. 5 days of skiing. If it was 2 weeks Id have booked weeks ago and rolled the dice with whatever happens. Given such a short trip and given there are good conditions out west, and given that weve waited this long to give ourselves maximum flexibility, I have a heightened sense of wanting to have it be worth our time and effort getting over there. Having said that, Chris makes some good points and I might be being a little too nitpicky here. Probably some great skiing to be had next week even if visibility isnt A+ all week.

 

[skiandgolfnut]

JFK to Milan leaving as early as tonight is $590 round trip. Same price as it’s been for months. Unbelievable.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Skiing never really goes according to plan. (...) I’d pull the trigger no questions asked

I might be being a little too nitpicky here. Probably some great skiing to be had next week

I noticed when looking back at my reports up through 2020, both to the Alps and throughout North America, that there wasn't the extensive pre-trip "you should go here; you absolutely should stay away from there!" back and forth, either about conditions or travel logistics that started during COVID. For Europe, I usually checked in with Fraser a day or so in advance and got a basic read on things but didn't spend much if any time on weather sites, comparing and contrasting elevation, snowfall ratios, or terrain aspects. I just showed up and went about my business.

That strategy (or lack thereof) resulted in great visits to some, in retrospect, nutcase places (e.g. Atzmännig, Mythen, Planneralm, Rigi) that would've been rejected out of hand if they'd undergone today's extensive vetting process. Just sayin' that there's something to be said about not overthinking/over analysing, as counter-intuitive as it may seem.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

JFK to Milan leaving as early as tonight is $590 round trip. Same price as it’s been for months. Unbelievable.

Virtually the same out of EWR: $621 for the next five days, including tonight. Last-minute fares to ZRH and GVA are double that. I wonder why Milan is such a comparative bargain?

 

[Tony Crocker]

JFK to Milan leaving as early as tonight is $590 round trip. Same price as it’s been for months. Unbelievable.

Surely that should clinch the decision, especially with the southern Alps predicted to get the lion's share of upcoming weather.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Friday 23 February 2024 - Snow in the Alps!

It’s a mostly cloudy day across the eastern Alps today, with snow at times, heaviest in the south-east (e.g. Carinthia, Dolomites). In the western Alps (e.g. France), it is brighter with sunny spells.

This latest storm hit the western Alps yesterday but started with a relatively high rain/snow line (around 1600-2000m) before it turned much colder overnight. This morning, around 15-30cm of new snow has fallen above 2000m across much of the French, Swiss and northwestern Italian Alps with a few centimetres at lower altitudes too.

Today, the region that will see the most snow is the south-eastern quarter of the Alps, including the Dolomites (e.g. Arabba), southern Austria (e.g. Nassfeld), Lombardy (e.g. Livigno) and the far southeast of Switzerland (e.g. St Moritz). By tomorrow morning, these areas should see between 30-50cm of fresh snow at altitude, with up to 60cm in places.

 

[ChrisC]

That strategy (or lack thereof) resulted in great visits to some, in retrospect, nutcase places (e.g., Atzmännig, Mythen, Planneralm, Rigi) that would've been rejected out of hand if they'd undergone today's extensive vetting process.

You kept it all on the DL, so we could not aggressively comment.

I had not skied the Alps meaningfully (outside of mainly France in 2004 and 2005) until returning in the Winter of 2017/18 and selling a tech company to a Helsinki, Finland-based company in the same year.

This year has been incredibly problematic for under 1500-1800M resorts since late December. Little snowfall or cold air to make snow, Part of the reason for options.

Also, I know lite about less popular Alps resorts that do not make the top 50 lists or are covered in guidebooks. There are a lot of Alps equivalents to Whitewater, Castle, MT Snowbowl, Schweitzer, 49 North, Powder Mt, ABasin, Loveland, Solitude, Brighton etc. James knows them.

 

[ChrisC]

Seems hard to fathom a week long storm cycle in the Dolomites but that’s what open snow and wepowder both seem to be suggesting.

Most of my sense of Southern Storm Cycles comes from skiing Colorado San Juan/Telluride. Even when 5 straight days of snow are forecasted - it's often 2 storms of 12-18 hours with sun/sun breaks in between.

My experience with 25-50 inches at Verbier was similar.

And if it does snow, you just eat inside. We did a late lunch at Zermatt At Chez Vrony after skiing the Hohtalli Cable Car and a storm rolled in. Some days you just might inside vs a sundeck.

 

[ChrisC]

Virtually the same out of EWR: $621 for the next five days, including tonight. Last-minute fares to ZRH and GVA are double that. I wonder why Milan is such a comparative bargain?

I think you need to fly the same capacity year round or else lose gates under EU rules.

Last year I could extend my Milan flight and sometimes earn $ back since flight cost decreased on weekdays.

Think its the cheapest gateway to the Alps with flight and rental car prices.

St. Moritz, Andermatt, Verbier, Chamonix, Southern French Alps are almost better, more cheaply accessed from Milan.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

You kept it all on the DL, so we could not aggressively comment.

Hah, that's true; however, my recollection is that we didn't share our planning processes as extensively in forums pre-2020. We all just kinda went on trips and reported on them later.

 

[Tony Crocker]

And if it does snow, you just eat inside. We did a late lunch at Zermatt At Chez Vrony

We did that twice in 2014, Chez Vrony in Findeln and Zum See in Furi, both highly recommended.

Most of my sense of Southern Storm Cycles comes from skiing Colorado San Juan/Telluride. Even when 5 straight days of snow are forecasted - it's often 2 storms of 12-18 hours with sun/sun breaks in between.

That's an interesting question. Perhaps Fraser can chime in. I'd hazard a guess that the less continuous storms in San Juan/Telluride are more of a continental vs. coastal climate as opposed to north vs. south.

In general the Gulf Stream makes Euro weather far different that North America at similar latitude. However, the Great Gray North syndrome of chronic midwinter cloudiness seems to apply to latitudes >45 degrees on both continents. I'd guess the sunnier climate of the southern Alps allows the larch forest to grow higher into elevations where you can get good powder skiing more often.