The big Corona Virus Shutdown

Tony Crocker":3emv7p6z said:
Because you were in Europe? My impression is that the tests are in such short supply you need a reason like that to get tested.
Over the weekend, the criteria were preposterous to qualify for a test; however, they're now two bullets:
1) symptoms
2) either having recently visited a country/region with high incidence (Switzerland is right after the U.S. on the global list) or having been in direct contact with an infected person -- I was the former.
 
EMSC":rpsc2e0t said:
Stop with the fear based stupidity, please US politicians.

I generally am quite liberal - but I do think this hype is over-blown. Skiing is quite the solitary activity - outside of a few gondola and tram rides - and maybe a meal. But you are practically in a full body suit when skiing - and barely transfering anything.

My view goes a bit deeper - everyone is going to get this virus. We are just trying to slow spread to allow our ER facilities not to turn people away. No politician wants deaths on their watch.

However, to throw Generation X, Y and Z into economic chaos to save a few Boomers?? C'mon. The Boomers really cannot afford this - we are saddled with debt. Money should be going to climate change, education, etc - the future.

I was in Andermatt Switzerland last weekend March 6-8 and Helsinki (work) before that ... I am positive for the virus ... it feels like nothing. My winter cold is worse. Quarantine is worse.
 
jamesdeluxe":3m8f3k9j said:
ChrisC":3m8f3k9j said:
I was in Andermatt Switzerland last weekend March 6-8.
I was 20 miles directly east of you on those days, in Brigels/Obersaxen.

I am absolutely in love with Andermatt - with guides. (I also love Val D'Isere, St. Anton, Verbier, Engelberg, La Grave). It was their Free Ride Weekend, so it was $120 guide fee + $50 lift ticket ....on par with heli skiing in Alaska or Japan.

It is Jackson Hole with no tram lines and 5,000 or more vertical.....
 
ChrisC":2fhncnl4 said:
EMSC":2fhncnl4 said:
Stop with the fear based stupidity, please US politicians.

I generally am quite liberal - but I do think this hype is over-blown. Skiing is a solitary activity - outside of a few gondola and tram rides - and maybe a meal. But you are practically in a full body suit when skiing - and barely transfering anything.

My view goes a bit deeper - everyone is going to get this virus. We are just trying to slow spread to allow our ER facilities not to turn people away. No politician wants deaths on their watch.

However, to throw Generation X, Y and Z into economic chaos to save a few Boomers?? C'mon. The Boomers really cannot afford this - we are saddled with debt. Money should be going to climate change, education, etc - the future.

I was in Andermatt Switzerland last weekend March 6-8 and Helsinki (work) before that ... I am positive for the virus ... it feels like nothing. My winter cold is worse. Quarantine is worse.
 
I'm sorry to hear you contracted this contagion and am glad to hear you have a mild case.

ChrisC":18jl5c2f said:
However, to throw Generation X, Y and Z into economic chaos to save a few Boomers?? C'mon. The Boomers really cannot afford this - we are saddled with debt. Money should be going to climate change, education, etc - the future.

I've got two teenage nephews who were born immunocompromised. My parents are in their 80s (with adequate savings!). As for me, I'm 51, 5'11", 160 lbs., can still handle 25+ pull ups from a dead hang on an average day, and over 5 trips to Mustang have yet to find a lead guide I can't keep up with (in terms cardio fitness, not ski technique) even though I live at 800 ft. On the other hand, just this morning my oncologist emailed me to remind me that after 3+ years of ongoing treatments for a hematologic cancer, I am at significant risk from this bug. I agree that in the end most of us are likely to get this thing. I'd just like there to be available hospital beds for my nephews, my parents, myself and anybody you might happen to love if needed.

Even if the opportunity to manage this thing primarily through testing hasn't already been missed, there are few signs that adequate numbers of test kits are available, or likely to soon be available, in much of the country, including where I live:

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-s- ... 568864222/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Getting people to move around a lot less and getting people not to gather in large groups are two proven ways to slow down the demand for hospital care. I posted this earlier, I'll post it again:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's a simplified simulation, but makes a persuasive argument that getting people to move around a lot less would likely result in a flattened curve much less likely to overwhelm the healthcare system. It takes about 5 minutes. Please take it for a spin.

I agree that the likelihood of catching coronavirus on a chairlift must be pretty small, but closing ski areas is just one small way to get people to stop moving around. Of course skiers on their way to and from resorts also travel through airports, stand at rental car counters, stay in hotels, eat in restaurants (or get takeout from restaurants), etc. From this perspective, I'm surprised more governors didn't shut down their states' resorts the way Jared Polis did in Colorado.

With respect to civil liberties, I'm generally all for individuals managing their own risks. Just about all the the skiing I have done over the last 3 season has been against Dr.'s orders. However, where I start to have an issue is where other's exercise of their perceived rights puts me and my loved ones at risk. One treatment I underwent in late 2017 wiped out my immune system and all the immunity I gained through childhood vaccinations. It was not until December 2019 that my new immune system was mature enough to accept new vaccinations for measles. In the meantime, every ignorant and reckless anti-vaxer with whom I unknowingly came in contact with put me at totally unnecessary risk of a potentially-deadly disease. The issues raised by coronavirus-related travel restrictions are much more complex, but not entirely different.

With respect to the economic fallout of movement and gathering restrictions, if, as you argue, as a society we decide that anybody boomer and older, all people with preexisting conditions that make them vulnerable to the virus, and really anyone that needs life-saving healthcare for all sorts of reasons (but won't get from an overwhelmed health care system) are expendable, I would very much like to see some hard numbers that show this would be the economically better alternative before that decision is made.
 
Castle and other Alberta ski hills closed by provincial order. Local hill Blacktail will not reopen wednesday. Hard to believe but Snowbowl still plans to open tomorrow.
 
ChrisC":2vjvcq3s said:
it was $120 guide fee
Only on Sundays unfortunately, otherwise it's private and big $$$. Having skied there twice, Andermatt looks like one of those places where you need a guide to range far afield of the lifts.

lono":2vjvcq3s said:
Castle and other Alberta ski hills closed by provincial order.
I verified the closures of Marmot, Lake Louise, Sunshine and Castle on their websites. Western Canada is done. Castle's COVID-19 update page (which I just found) said yesterday that international visitors couldn't go skiing until they have been quarantined for 14 days.

lono":2vjvcq3s said:
Hard to believe but Snowbowl still plans to open tomorrow.
Discovery is hanging in there too AFAIK.
Posted on March 15, 2020

To our valued Guests and Employees,
As we all are aware, COVID-19 (or coronavirus disease 2019) has been declared a pandemic and become an international public health concern. At this time, it is difficult to know how severe this outbreak will be but we have seen the first cases arrive in Montana and the Governor has declared a state of emergency. At this time, we are monitoring the situation closely and plan to remain open until our closing day on April 5th. We remain vigilant in maintaining a high standard of cleanliness across the resort. As a standard, all of our facilities are disinfected daily, with additional attention throughout the day as needed. We are taking a number of actions above and beyond these standards.....
I'd really like to hear from q. He has to be one of the luckiest skiers on the planet if he gets to ski every day until Apr. 5. And Philipsburg is so remote that even the nutcases like Patrick and me are not making that level of effort to get to an open ski area.

Slightly less remote Brundage looks at it differently:
Update for 3-17-2020:

It is with a heavy heart that we announce that Brundage Mountain will be closed until further notice starting at the end of business today 3-17-2020.

Suspending our operations is a necessary step in support of our national and community efforts to limit the spread and reduce the risks associated with COVID-19. This is an unprecedented situation. At our core, the Brundage Mountain family is devoted to providing a healthy outdoor experience for our skiing and riding community.

However, with recent developments and school and other closures in our area, we must acknowledge that keeping Brundage Mountain open at this time would undoubtedly result in an influx of travelers to our community.....

Today is the last day for Arizona Snowbowl and Brian Head. Powder Mt. may have been closed longer as the snow report page is dated last Sunday.
 
Chris":2ju7woao said:
I am positive for the virus ... it feels like nothing. My winter cold is worse. Quarantine is worse.
Chris got tested like James because he had just come back from Europe. But the "community spread" people who feel like Chris aren't tested and won't get counted as COVID-19 cases even though they are probably contagious.

Kristen Lummis' blog post I referenced on Sunday is quite relevant in this context.
https://braveskimom.com/our-familys-exp ... h-covid-19
These teenagers did get sick and they are not in the official COVID-19 stats either.

As an aside both Andrew and I had unusual illnesses in spring 2009 that were probably the swine flu from Mexico. I missed two days of work with fever but by the time I got to my doctor I was clearly on the mend and he did not think it necessary to test me for the swine flu virus.

The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.

None of the above means COVID-19 is not serious. The precautionary principle applies because there's a lot we don't know yet thanks to the delay in collecting data. And here's another article about how nebulous the data is now: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

flyover":2ju7woao said:
over 5 trips to Mustang have yet to find a lead guide I can't keep up with
Flyover does not mention that before his cancer he was keeping up with Mustang pace on telemark skis!
 
Has anyone seen these charts that show US is about 11 days behind Italy in number of cases?
NY cases is about 5 days behind US total and CA is two days behind NY (or a week behind US total).
Note that today's numbers are worse for US total (5800-6100) and a little better for CA and NY. I hope we can slow it down.
CoronaVirusGrowth_3_16.jpg
CoronaVirusGrowth.jpg
 
The good news from this is that the 2% mortality stat for COVID-19 is probably much overstated. With all the unexplained community transmission and lack of testing, it seems obvious that there are a ton of unreported cases, so the denominator of the mortality rate is much understated.
It's hard to believe this illogic keeps getting repeated. Mortality rate is a statistic with a simple formula. Covid, cancer, car crash, whatever -- the deniminator would NEVER include unreported, holy cow...
 
ShiftyRider":2hcgvr5w said:
the denominator would NEVER include unreported
But given lack of testing and what is likely an unusually large number of asymptomatic people, the unreported proportion of cases is probably higher than prior flu/coronavirus outbreaks.

Bogus Basin and Tamarack final days were yesterday. Schweitzer's last day is today. Silver Mt. page still says reopening Friday. Montana is still hanging in there; no change for Lookout Pass, Montana Snowbowl or Discovery. q, let's have a report! Great Divide is closed this week, will reevaluate next week.

Dodge Ridge is still open and China Peak plans to open tomorrow. Both will limit ticket sales to prevent crowding.
 
ShiftyRider":1qnz1rv8 said:
the deniminator would NEVER include unreported

Strongly disagree. Flu, etc... have had extensive studies performed on them. While not perfect, we are able to mathematically estimate the likely range of unreported volumes of many things within an acceptable margin of error to provide a decent, though slightly imprecise range (note range, not precise point number). eg real world statistics, not laboratory or college course style statistics where everything is so controlled and potentially precise.
 
To add, it's almost like taking really bad news (lack of test capability) and deciding that that's good news.

Reminds me of the arsehole I know who had the flu on Monday (2+ weeks ago) and went to work on Wednesday. Then discovered it progressed to pneumonia the next Monday and inexplicably again went to work on Wednesday. Said "Welp, they didn't have a test for me" and took it as a good sign.
 
ShiftyRider":3fqwigvj said:
LOL if that were true I'd expect to see it re cancer or car crashes in some study. Carry on.

And here it is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_veh ... S._by_year

Going off the 2018 data, an average of 100 people die each day in vehicle related deaths. I doubt there are many who refuse to travel because they think they are going to die.

From my perspective, the so-called "experts" are playing real loose with the numbers on their predictions. I have yet to see a study that hasn't just re-hashed the China data from the first 40,000 tested.

Point being: people are going to die, they do everyday. Should we be concerned? Yes, but not hiding in fear.
 
From Waterville Valley, NH. The lack of a coordinated national response led to this:

Dear Waterville Valley Family,

Over the past week, Waterville Valley Resort has modified our operations to continue to responsibly provide a valuable outdoor recreation service in an effort to support our employees and the skiing community in search of joy and fun during this trying time. All CDC recommendations have been utilized and followed every step of the way. Our efforts have included moving seating outside with significant spacing, limiting indoor facility access to only bathrooms, maximizing cleaning procedures, eliminating lines and grouping on lifts, and closing rental and ski school operations as well as restaurant and bar outlets. Over the past few days our staff has been overwhelmed with the gratitude shown by our guests. Our team has made special focused efforts to find a way to share the open space and fresh air of the beautiful White Mountains with our visitors. The pursuit of enjoyment through outdoor recreation has a power on the soul that we could all use right now.

Despite these efforts, and despite the extremely limited personal contact inherent in our reduced operations, our continuing operations have been met with outcry by many who choose to misrepresent our efforts and have created an environment that has incited people to act irresponsibly to the point of becoming abusive and threatening to our staff. Therefore, regretfully, effective at 4:00pm today, Wednesday, March 18, 2020, Waterville Valley Resort will close for winter operations for the 2019/2020 ski season.

Thank you for the support and for a wonderful season.
 
vanhanbr, somehow what I wrote was confusing. I'm not saying car crash statistics don't exist. I'm saying the mortality percentage of car crashes is a simple formula...

# of car crashes with a fatality / # of car crashes

Do you see the denominator there? It wouldn't include car crashes that went unreported.

(There's another use of mortality rate where the denominator is everybody, i.e. statistics could present one's chance of dying from COVID whether or not they had any disease or symptoms at all, but clearly that has nothing to do with Tony's 2% number upthread, so please don't get confused there.)
 
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