ChrisC":mqwxw8ww said:
So it turns out we may be throwing Generation X, Y (millennials) and Z into economic chaos to save a few... generation Xers, millennials, and gen Zers:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/heal ... e=Homepage
The big Corona Virus Shutdown
- Thread starter EMSC
- Start date
So it turns out we may be throwing Generation X, Y (millennials) and Z into economic chaos to save a few... generation Xers, millennials, and gen Zers:
EMSC
Well-known member
ShiftyRider":2gwhjs08 said:
No confusion. You're arguing that only cases severe enough for hospitalization is the divisor (eg those definitively ID'd with the disease). Then trying to apply that death rate to the entire population. Given testing failures in the US there are relatively few diagnosed with Corona, but not hospitalized; so that is the basic math you are advocating. What if it turns out that there are actually 500,000 cases that have gone undetected because they are so minor. This has been hypothesized for the US by many reputable doctors. Then your stat for deaths % is wildly overstated. You can't treat the divisor as definitive and known when the testing failures are so bad. The divisor is an entire unknown in nearly all countries which is why the death rates are also a complete unknown.
Look at the South Korean data and you will find something like a 0.6% death rate. Why is theirs so much lower than anywhere else? Because they actually know how many had the disease through extensive testing. Then you have factors like heavy smoking culture in some counties, or massive populations of older people ,etc... heavily skewing other underlying factors that will need to be accounted for.
The real stats won't be known for many months and quite probably years (medical types generally move kinda slow).
ShiftyRider":2gwhjs08 said:
You do realize that there are studies and statistical models on unreported car crashes right? Doesn't mean they are on Wikipedia or in the major news outlets. Many of them are secret sauce info within insurance companies, etc... Doesn't mean it doesn't exist or that it isn't taken into account in various places.
ShiftyRider
Member
That's the complete opposite of what I wrote.
No, I'm advocating that the Case Fatality Rate is a simple equation. You want it to be different for Covid, than any other disease, or mishap, or whatever can have a CFR.
Mrs. Trudeau
Kevin Durant
the other 2 NBA ballers
Tom Hanks
Miami Mayor
Congressmen
...not hospitalized I think which is great news. But rest assured the equation wants them to be included in the denominator.
Facepalm
These diseases...
Spanish (1918) flu
Legionnaires' disease has a CFR of ≈15%.
Yellow fever
Bubonic plague
Ebola
Naegleriasis (also known as primary amoebic meningoencephalitis)
Rabies
Prion disease
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata ... e#Examples)
...sorry dude, the equation is the same for all of them. The proportion of deaths from the disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease.
My understanding is that with most influenzas patients need to show symptoms to be contagious. From what I read about COVID-19, people show no symptoms for ~5 days but can be contagious. This is why we have these "community spread" cases showing up with no obvious link to foreign travel, other known patients, etc. It is thus reasonable to assume that the proportion of unreported to reported cases is much higher for COVID-19 that for other flu epidemics in recent years.
As EMSC said, we may eventually be able to estimate this, but that requires testing a sample population fairly representative of the society as a whole. Probably that was done in South Korea and thus the quoted 0.6% death rate. That's a lot more than garden variety influenzas but only 10% as deadly as 1918 Spanish flu.
James, ChrisC:
Were all passengers coming from Europe on your planes last week immediately tested?
FYI Liz reports from today and last Saturday that the number of people in airports is about 2/3 of normal. However, there's little of the "social distancing" we see elsewhere. Food courts, waiting areas near gates, lineups to get on the plane are all with usual proximity to other people. However, with fewer people on the planes, Liz has been able to go towards the back and find an entire row for herself on all 4 flights between Burbank, Atlanta and Tampa.
In the last two days, I've gone out for food three times in SoCal, and all three restaurants were take-out only.
As EMSC said, we may eventually be able to estimate this, but that requires testing a sample population fairly representative of the society as a whole. Probably that was done in South Korea and thus the quoted 0.6% death rate. That's a lot more than garden variety influenzas but only 10% as deadly as 1918 Spanish flu.
James, ChrisC:
Were all passengers coming from Europe on your planes last week immediately tested?
FYI Liz reports from today and last Saturday that the number of people in airports is about 2/3 of normal. However, there's little of the "social distancing" we see elsewhere. Food courts, waiting areas near gates, lineups to get on the plane are all with usual proximity to other people. However, with fewer people on the planes, Liz has been able to go towards the back and find an entire row for herself on all 4 flights between Burbank, Atlanta and Tampa.
In the last two days, I've gone out for food three times in SoCal, and all three restaurants were take-out only.
ShiftyRider
Member
I hope you're right re 0.6% and there's lotsa good points in that article from Stanford.
I've always liked cooking so I sure ain't gonna go out for restaurant food. Restaurant workers are some of the poorest and least benefit-compensated (like paid sick time).
I've always liked cooking so I sure ain't gonna go out for restaurant food. Restaurant workers are some of the poorest and least benefit-compensated (like paid sick time).
When I arrived at Newark last Thursday, it took me the usual 40 seconds to go through immigration with Global Entry. While convenient, there was zero screening, questioning, or quarantining. Thankfully, Global Entry holders didn't have to put their hands on the fingerprint reader; however, those in the regular lines had to do that and there was no cleaning of the finger pad between people. Gah!Tony Crocker":1zkkz39x said:
Of course, the following day was when three- to six-hour waits ensued due to the administration's "enhanced" but thoroughly disorganised measures.
Between the two scenarios, it appears that everything possible was done or not done to maximise the likelihood of contagion. Yay, federal government.
Interesting to note that United is continuing daily flights between EWR and Munich, Dublin, Amsterdam, Brussels, Paris, and Zurich/3x daily to London and Frankfurt.
I mentioned the mess in Ischgl a while back in this thread -- the ski resort where you least wanted to be during a pandemic:
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-aus ... continent/
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-aus ... continent/
berkshireskier
Member
EMSC":3vtdagaw said:
IMHO, you're exactly right here! No way, at this point in time, to know what the true denominator is - i.e., how many are really infected with the Corona virus. And I"m not sure that we will ever really know that number because it will be impossible to test 330 million Americans (never mind the possibility of substantial false test results). No doubt that scientists and statisticians will try to make an estimate but it will be only be just that - an estimate. I'm guessing that the death rate percentage will be below 1.00% (at least, I HOPE so) of those infected.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
My close friend is thoracic surgeon at UC Davis..
He sent me to this to share and watch...It very interesting
https://www.ctsnet.org/article/covid-19 ... e+3%2F2020
He sent me to this to share and watch...It very interesting
https://www.ctsnet.org/article/covid-19 ... e+3%2F2020
Silver Mt. is not reopening today. Lookout, Montana Snowbowl and Discovery remain open.
I found out about Gov. Newsom's California lockdown when I was about half an hour short of Sonora with a hotel reservation paid for last night. Dodge Ridge website dated 5:30AM said wait and see, but I talked to a live person person at 8AM and they are closed.
China Peak where I skied yesterday is open today (verified by live person) but I wouldn't bet on tomorrow. I'm going home now and expect to be there for quite awhile.
I found out about Gov. Newsom's California lockdown when I was about half an hour short of Sonora with a hotel reservation paid for last night. Dodge Ridge website dated 5:30AM said wait and see, but I talked to a live person person at 8AM and they are closed.
China Peak where I skied yesterday is open today (verified by live person) but I wouldn't bet on tomorrow. I'm going home now and expect to be there for quite awhile.
berkshireskier
Member
This is an interesting post from another website that I frequent:
Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, co-director of its Meta-Research Innovation Center, published an article in the life sciences news site STAT to the effect that we are making decisions without reliable data. Based in part on the mortality rate of the cruise ship Diamond Princess (an elderly closed population in which there were 7 deaths among 700 infected passengers and crew), he thinks that reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%. If 0.05% is the true rate (a rate lower than seasonal influenza) he says that our current state is “like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.” His argument is to collect sufficient and reliable data before we jump off a cliff.
That article is responded to by Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, agreeing with some and disagreeing with some.
I've been saying this for weeks now. We're destroying a $19 TRILLION economy and obliterating the wealth and affluence of hundreds of millions of Americans......to what end? To POSSIBLY save the lives of a few hundred thousand VERY old and 90-per cent dead people? Does anyone think this is smart public policy? The level of insanity in our society is truly frightening.
Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, co-director of its Meta-Research Innovation Center, published an article in the life sciences news site STAT to the effect that we are making decisions without reliable data. Based in part on the mortality rate of the cruise ship Diamond Princess (an elderly closed population in which there were 7 deaths among 700 infected passengers and crew), he thinks that reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%. If 0.05% is the true rate (a rate lower than seasonal influenza) he says that our current state is “like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.” His argument is to collect sufficient and reliable data before we jump off a cliff.
That article is responded to by Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, agreeing with some and disagreeing with some.
I've been saying this for weeks now. We're destroying a $19 TRILLION economy and obliterating the wealth and affluence of hundreds of millions of Americans......to what end? To POSSIBLY save the lives of a few hundred thousand VERY old and 90-per cent dead people? Does anyone think this is smart public policy? The level of insanity in our society is truly frightening.
Marc_C
Active member
berkshireskier":2321ortz said:
You haven't been paying attention:
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927196
"A review of more than 4,000 U.S. patients who were diagnosed with novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) shows that an unexpected 20% of deaths occurred among adults aged 20-64 years, and 20% of those hospitalized were aged 20-44 years."
You've also just said to anyone in an elevated risk group 'f u c k off and die'.
EMSC
Well-known member
Marc_C":2bbmf2vk said:
Then I suggest you don't travel.
Marc_C":2bbmf2vk said:
You've now just said to anyone on the lower rungs of the economic ladder (or even higher rungs but living paycheck to paycheck) : 'f u c k off and die'. And a great many of them will. Including a great many in the same elevated risk groups for the virus ironically. very large numbers of unhealthy and old groups are already economically on edge.
First question is going to be how many of the hospitalized younger cohorts are smokers, vapers or have other underlying conditions? The US medical types at least do their absolute best to obfuscate those types of stats and the US media give them a free pass for doing so. Just last month it was a huge crisis how many younger vapers were dying in hospital, but I'm sure those groups aren't at all affected by a new respiratory virus.
When will you admit that the available information is no where near robust enough to make decisions to destroy the entire world economy over.
berkshireskier":2bbmf2vk said:
=D> There are now guaranteed to be at least as many deaths due to economic conditions over the next few years as the virus would have killed if zero precautions of any kind were taken. Add in the upcoming massive wave of divorces, economic hardships for 10's of millions, students left behind in education and opportunity (or abused, or joining gangs, or etc...) due to staying home so much (especially K-6th kids cannot e-learn if at all), etc.., etc... Though I'm sure the Chinese and Russians, et al are laughing hard while remembering to never interrupt your opponent when they are making a huge mistake.
You'll note that there is finally a small but slightly growing undercurrent of articles and voices questioning the logic of many of the economic destruction policies. I predict that that wlll only get much, much louder in a week or two and then become quite shrill at some point. When the 'cure' is worse than the disease you have to be a certain kind of stupid to cure things that way.
There are still plenty of 'social distancing' items that make sense, but many of the ones currently being forced upon people by clueless bureaucrats are senseless, knee-jerk items at best.
tseeb
Well-known member
China Peak is now closed.Tony Crocker":1t1dq944 said:
That is also something my wife said.Marc_C":1t1dq944 said:
I'd like to post update of charts I posted on page 4, but it's hard to find consistent daily case statistics by state, even using two and three day old newspapers. It looks like cases in US as a whole and in NY are rising faster than they did in Italy and cases in CA are rising slower (edited to add but may be artificially low from lack of testing). I hope US can do better than Italy on deaths as they now have more than China.
Like China Peak, Montana Snowbowl's last day was today. Lookout Pass and Discovery show no change on websites so presumably are still open tomorrow.
Yes the problem described in that article is that the low end of true COVID-19 might be in the range of seasonal flu while the high end could be over 1%. Hopefully the South Koreans narrowed it down some.
Which damage is worse, the medical damage from the virus or the economic damage of the social distancing shutdown of several economic sectors? My view is that the economic damage will be far worse if this drags on for any more than a few weeks. Therefore ramping up testing has to be of utmost priority so that verified non-infected people can go back to work ASAP.
That would be this article I referenced on Tuesday:berkshire_skier":1mm7hjes said:
Tony Crocker":1mm7hjes said:
Yes the problem described in that article is that the low end of true COVID-19 might be in the range of seasonal flu while the high end could be over 1%. Hopefully the South Koreans narrowed it down some.
Which damage is worse, the medical damage from the virus or the economic damage of the social distancing shutdown of several economic sectors? My view is that the economic damage will be far worse if this drags on for any more than a few weeks. Therefore ramping up testing has to be of utmost priority so that verified non-infected people can go back to work ASAP.
Some really thought provoking discussion in this thread. I’m conflicted as to what is likely to kill more people - the virus or the economic fallout caused by social distancing. I guess time will reveal some answers.
On a lighter note I’m curious if the resort closures will cause some (previously) resort only skiers to dip their toe into the water of ski touring? I know if I lived close to mountains loaded with snow I’d be quick to invest in some skins and touring skis. Anyone from here planning that?
On a lighter note I’m curious if the resort closures will cause some (previously) resort only skiers to dip their toe into the water of ski touring? I know if I lived close to mountains loaded with snow I’d be quick to invest in some skins and touring skis. Anyone from here planning that?