Western Weather 2016-17

[Admin]

You're trying to use the image BBcode to embed something that's not an image.

 

[Admin]

A couple of quick facts from Utah:

1. Alta has now hit 300" season-to-date, even though the season is only 40% over.
2. Snowbasin's current base depth of 140" is their deepest snowpack at this point in the season in 37 years.

 

[Tony Crocker]

And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...

We must conclude that the locals want to keep days like last Saturday to themselves.

Alta received 107 inches of snow between Jan. 5 and Jan. 23. There were only 6 days it didn't snow, Jan. 6 and Jan. 14-18. :-({|= The longest dry spell this January will be the one coming up for the rest of the month.

But some people continue to insist that the majority of January snow comes at the beginning and end of the month and that the middle of the month is mysteriously more prone to dry spells.

And while we're at it, the whole month of January is in inversion season so the inversions are also as likely in early and late January as mid-January.

 

[Marc_C]

And they usually tend to happen mid-January. Sometimes there's an outlier in December or February, but over the past 12 years of direct experience, if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts. That may or may not be true next season, but it is this year, and last,...

We must conclude that the locals want to keep days like last Saturday to themselves.

Alta received 107 inches of snow between Jan. 5 and Jan. 23. There were only 6 days it didn't snow, Jan. 6 and Jan. 14-18. :-({|= The longest dry spell this January will be the one coming up for the rest of the month.

But some people continue to insist that the majority of January snow comes at the beginning and end of the month and that the middle of the month is mysteriously more prone to dry spells.

And while we're at it, the whole month of January is in inversion season so the inversions are also as likely in early and late January as mid-January.

I see that your reading comprehension has hit a new low. Reread my quote you pulled, with the annotated bolding.
Us locals never said every year nor did we ever say mid-Jan is always a dry spell.
Quit trying to change and reframe what we actually said to fit your skewed narrative. It's obnoxious.

 

[Admin]

It's obnoxious.

+1

 

[Tony Crocker]

No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.

 

[Admin]

No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.

And it's more obnoxious to persist that it doesn't from 500 miles away, with only specious evidence to back it up.

 

[Tony Crocker]

"This is why logicians like to point out that it’s incumbent on the person making the unverified claim to offer proof. Trump has promised an investigation into voter fraud that he purports will bolster his claims. Our research, and data from the country’s largest state, suggests that he has his work cut out for him."

Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.

 

[berkshireskier]

"This is why logicians like to point out that it’s incumbent on the person making the unverified claim to offer proof. Trump has promised an investigation into voter fraud that he purports will bolster his claims. Our research, and data from the country’s largest state, suggests that he has his work cut out for him."

Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.

Oh God, we're not bringing Donald Trump's propensity for "stretching the truth" into the FTO forums, are we? LOL

 

[Admin]

A couple of fun charts via Wasatch Snow Forecast:

And viewed against that stellar 2010-11 winter:

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Oh God, we're not bringing Donald Trump's propensity for "stretching the truth" into the FTO forums, are we? LOL

Buyer's remorse :-"

 

[Admin]

Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:

 

[Marc_C]

Precisely my opinion regarding the unverified claim about the incidence of Utah dry spells and their inversion subsets.

For about the 10th time - take up your objections about unverified claims with the local meteorologists who have been telling us what we've been telling you for 16 years.
And no, what you claim we are asserting is not what we have actually said.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:

Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries in Utah that look like this one.

 

[Marc_C]

Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries that look like this one in Utah.

When did anyone ever say *every* January? How did you equate "often" with "every"?
Yet again, you're arguing against an assertion that you made up.

 

[Admin]

Funny, but notice how in each of those past 5 seasons there's a flat line around mid-January. :lol:

Go back to the 1990's (before the Marc's moved to Utah :-k ) and you'll see a lot of Januaries in Utah that look like this one.

So, is that way of admitting that on that graph there's a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in each of the past 5 years?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Yes it is, but 5 years is a totally insignificant period of time to determine a true weather pattern. I could find a longer period than that in the 1990's where the opposite is true. Given weather volatility you need 20+ years and 30 would probably be better to make this kind of evaluation.

When I first collected snow data in the mid- 1990's, I had on average about 20 years of data for the typical area. I observed at that time that March was the snowiest month in most of Utah and Colorado. With another 20 years of data the "March bulge" has dissolved completely except for the Continental Divide areas in CO. And guess what, there's a real meteorological reason for a boost in spring snowfall for that specific region.

The recent short term January dry spell (which by the way applied to most of the American West, not just Utah) similarly dissolves if you extend the data back far enough. In this case 20 years is more than adequate, even though AltaGuard has 50 years of data to thoroughly debunk it. Last year was probably the start of dissolving it going forward, and this year accelerates that process.

 

[Admin]

So, is that way of admitting that on that graph there's a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in each of the past 5 years?

Yes it is, but 5 years is a totally insignificant period of time to determine a true weather pattern.

There we have it, folks! After literally years of stubborn refusal, Tony Crocker has finally admitted that there's been a demonstrable dry spell in mid-January in Utah for every single year for at least the past 5 years. If I had access to a 10-year graphic it would display a similar pattern -- I ought to know, for unlike Mr. Crocker I've actually been here to live it. This is consistent with the assertion of Utah residents both on these forums and elsewhere, as well as Utah meterologists that there is often (no one ever said always or most often, other than Crocker) a dry period during mid-January in the Wasatch.

No you didn't say every year. But it's absurd to claim that mid-January is more prone to either dry spells or inversions than early or late January. And it's obnoxious to persist with the claim while producing zero evidence to back it up.

So, let's tally this up, shall we? a) You've now admitted that we didn't say every year, and b) you've now been provided evidence to back it up and have agreed that it has taken place every single year for the past five years. Methinks that any attempt to persist in your ignorant denial is now fruitless.

Finally, with regard to Marc_C's advice to visitors seeking powder to avoid mid-January if possible, those flat lines clearly demonstrate why he gives that advice, and I can assure you that none of those visitors skiing in the current decade gives a flying $hit what happened 20 or 30 years ago. This year was an aberration as was 2010-11, but if I wanted to travel to Utah looking for powder, would I deiberately avoid a two-week period that has repeatedly had nearly 0% chance of powder skiing based on the past 5 years? Hells yeah I would. Case closed.

Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?

 

[Marc_C]

Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?

Perhaps for the rest of this season, but don't be surprised if all this is forgotten next season and is rehashed.

Recall how many seasons it took to finally put the amount of north facing terrain question out of our misery.

 

[Admin]

Now that we've finally cleared that up, may we move on to some other topic?

Perhaps for the rest of this season, but don't be surprised if all this is forgotten next season and is rehashed.

Recall how many seasons it took to finally put the amount of north facing terrain question out of our misery.

No $hit.