This much I got.
Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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This much I got.
In terms of immediate forecasts the models have been unstable and contradictory often so far this month. Now there is more consensus but in general it's not good. Prior forecasts for this week have been scaled back and next week looks dry. Thanksgiving is going to be strictly WROD skiing. And December snowfall will need to be well above average for decent skiing at Christmas.
EMSC
Well-known member
Was just about to ask, but feels like one of the worst starts overall and country wide (North America Wide?).
Thank goodness my local Eldora decided to go all in on the one decently long cold snap we have had. Otherwise they would be so far behind they might have had to push to Dec to open.
I remember 2017 was a very slow start. We skied at Alta on Christmas eve and it was just a few days before that they opened a lot of acreage.
The line north of Jackson was better however.
It's so early, but surprisingly yes. We tend to remember the bad early seasons where it was still sketchy at Christmas. Most of those like 2011-12 and 2017-18 were not bad everywhere. Here's my TR from Nov. 21-22, 2017. 2011-12 was good from the beginning in the Northwest and western Canada. The most comparable season at this stage was 2007-08. Almost no one remembers that because December 2007 was spectacular.
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EMSC
Well-known member
For natural snow, yes. Not as sure about openings though.
Snowmaking temps at night for most (not all) places mean a few WRODs per ski area at least seems more likely. At the very least temps are forecast to cool significantly in 3-4 more days for most of Colorado. Can't say I track weather for extreme SW Colo though.
ChrisC
Well-known member
I am a bit surprised Telluride gave up so easily. However, Telski has an earlier 'cutoff' announcement of expected operations, compared to the day resorts of Denver - Breck, WP, Vail, BC, etc. Those areas just keep going with snowmaking operations. Meanwhile, it's an effort to reach Telluride so they need to publicize whether they will or will not be open and with how much. Expectations setting.
Vail's current operations of 1 run at Mid-Vail are quite sad.
Re: Temps. Generally, Telluride runs much colder than Aspen, Vail, and others due to altitude, higher peaks, and a narrow valley that funnels cold air. (Homes south of Colorado Ave/Main St only have about 2-4 hours of sunlight from Thanksgiving to Feb 1st.) Telluride is more similar to Summit County in the early season. Latitudinally, it is only about 100 miles south of Denver.
Some red flags from the gold standards of snow reliability:
Alta's opening is TBD; normally it would be tomorrow.
Targhee's opening tomorrow will only be its Shoshone beginner lift.
Alta's opening is TBD; normally it would be tomorrow.
Targhee's opening tomorrow will only be its Shoshone beginner lift.
I'm not sure that being open by Thanksgiving is reliably realistic. Christmas is the true benchmark. Has Alta or Targhee ever been less than 80% open by December 25?
Tony will be here soon to tell you that Targhee is virtually bulletproof for having its terrain open by Xmas.
I'll be at Solitude four weeks from today. Still plenty of time for a market correction.
ChrisC
Well-known member
Oh yeah, I have skied Alta <80% at Christmas. And it only had a 38" base.
I used to drive from SF->Tahoe (if I had a ski house)->SLC->Telluride for Christmas. SLC stopover would allow me to ski Alta or Solitude/Brighton (it's only 6 hours SLC-to-Telluide).
This was likely in the mid-2000s.
Quickly, it can change. It was much better over New Year's on the way home.
Targhee is much 'less steep' than Alta (although the new terrain is different), and its terrain is less rocky, so it's easier to get to 80% with roughly the same amount of snow.
True, but Alta's topography overall allows a lot of skiing ~75% on a 3-4 foot base, which is a total minefield next door at Snowbird.
Targhee data goes back to 1976-77. Less than 100 inches snowfall before Jan. 1:
77 in 1976
76 in 1986
84 in 2019
In 2019 Targhee was not open at Thanksgiving but was 15% open Nov. 30. It was 79% open Dec. 8 & 15 and 100% open Dec. 24 on 77 inches snowfall.
Alta Collins data goes back to 1980-81. Less than 100 inches snowfall before Jan. 1:
68 in 1980
71.5 in 1986
99 in 1987
92.5 in 1993
78.5 in 2011
74 in 2017
In 2011 most of the snow was in November so Alta was 50% open Dec. 1. During the lean December that did not increase until 65% Dec. 24 and 80% Jan. 1. In 2017 Alta opened Dec. 2, was 9% open Dec. 9, 15% open Dec. 15 and 75% open Jan. 1.
Alta Guard UDOT data goes back to 1946. Less than 100 inches snowfall before Jan. 1 before 1980:
90 in 1954
86 in 1956
85.5 in 1958
61.5 in 1959
48 in 1962
30.5 in 1976
The above leads me to believe that Alta needs about 100 inches snowfall for full operation while Targhee needs about 75 inches. Under 75 inch early seasons are about as rare ~7% at Alta as under 100 inches at Targhee and we haven't seen any under 75's at Targhee in 48 years.
November/December 1976 remains the extreme outlier for early season drought. Targhee's 77 inches then is a very impressive stat. Other areas for those two months:
Taos 52 (hold your applause, the season total was a dismal 146)
Winter Park 50
Mt. Rainier Paradise 41.2
Loveland 40
Jackson 36.5
Gothic Snow Lab, CO 29.5
Red Mt. Pass, CO 23
Alpine Meadows 22
Snoqualmie 21
Brighton 19
Kirkwood 18
Bear Valley 16
Central Sierra Snow Lab 15.7
Park City 12
Mt. Bachelor 10
Mammoth 0
Even Whistler did not escape this drought. Only farther north and inland at Revelstoke/Rogers Pass and Banff was there a close to normal early season. January 1977 had some snow but was well below average at most western areas as discussed in that Whistler link. But that January Targhee had 120 inches vs. 60 at Jackson and 50.5 at Alta Guard.
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In your situation I'd be checking out Euro options as you did in 2017 given the start over there. Solitude is less reliable than Alta so I say you need 5-6 feet of snow during those four weeks, which is only a little below average. Odds are at least 1/3 that you will pull the plug IMHO. LCC/BCC are predicted to get a foot this weekend but next week looks quiet. Brighton/Solitude were less than half open mid-December in 2020 and 2021 as well as 2017.
In fairness the current weather is not like Dec. 2017 when forecasters like Cliff Mass and Jim Steenburgh were using the terms "Godzilla" and "Heartbreak" to describe the persistent ridge of high pressure over the western US. This year the weather is more unsettled, but most storms so far are weak, disorganized or have a high rain/snow line. SoCal had several hours of rain Wednesday but rain/snow line was over 9,000 feet.
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ChrisC
Well-known member
What a disaster Thanksgiving skiing is shaping up to be. Yet I still have friends who will plan trips to Breck or Park City most years since they have Epic Passes. (Even if 50% of the time conditions are horrible. Why not use airfare and lodging for March?)
Essentially, this year is a contest: Who will have the best White-Ribbon-Of-Death (WROD) for the Thanksgiving Holidays? Lots of contenders this year....
Essentially, this year is a contest: Who will have the best White-Ribbon-Of-Death (WROD) for the Thanksgiving Holidays? Lots of contenders this year....
- Vail and Breckenridge with just a few runs. That should be terrible.
- Park City looks fun.
- Oh wow, skiing in Palisades Tahoe.
- Mammoth might be able to recreate this.
100% correct.
Advance booking skiing for Thanksgiving is basically setting $100 bills on fire more seasons than not, especially if holiday air travel is involved.
Actually not. Mammoth increased from 3 runs to 17 with only the beginner chair 11 added in lift capacity thanks to the modest storm over this past weekend. I've done early season daytrips to Big Bear to ski as much as Mammoth has now, though my bar for the longer drive plus lodging is considerably higher. Mammoth's climate for snowmaking is almost as good as Summit County Colorado and from what I can tell in my progress report update yesterday Mammoth has more open terrain than any of those places now, meager as it may be.
If flying to Denver or Salt Lake one could always ditch the skiing idea if conditions were poor and drive to one of the many great National Parks in the general area. As long as the lodging is cancelable it's a no lose situation in my book.
But totally - March makes much more sense. Surely no one picks Thanksgiving as their sole ski trip for the winter though? They probably travel to ski in March too.
I understand the answer to this question is very subjective but what is the atmosphere like in ski towns when conditions are good at thanksgiving? I'm guessing 'carnival like' as people are excited for the new season? If it's anything like Christmas with that festive buzz I don't blame people for trying for that high.
Not really from Denver. The mountains are way too high and cold in November even if lacking in snow. In Utah Moab, Capitol Reef and Zion are in the 4,000-6,000 foot range and viable during a dry November. But they are still 4-5 hours drive from Salt Lake and I have no idea how many people would swap out plans last minute.
I don't know anyone who gets on a plane to ski at Thanksgiving so I'll defer the resort town comments to ChrisC. Telluride averages 8% open Dec. 1 with a max of 30% over the past 20 years. Park City averages 14% open Dec. 1 with only one of the past 20 years over half open. Breck averages 23% open at Thanksgiving with a 10% chance of more than half open.
So the area I know about is Mammoth, which is a very unusual area for potential of non-WROD skiing in November:
1) That early, Sierra volatility is a plus because you need that 4 foot dump vs. gradual Colorado-type accumulation.
2) High density coastal snow covers the rocks much more effectively than the light and dry of the Rockies.
3) Favorable topography: Lower mountain is mostly intermediate, doesn't need that much snow and can be effectively covered with some snowmaking assistance. The upper mountain gets extra blown-in snow, is high enough to be rain-proof even in November and the glacial cirque runs (Cornice, Dave's, Scotty's) are skiable on 3-4 feet of snow. Does any place have better odds of skiing advanced natural terrain before Dec. 1? I'd say only Alta, maybe Whistler.
So here's the absolute elite of what might be open Thanksgiving or Dec. 1, parentheses = years of data:
| Whistler(27) | Alta (20) | Vail(31) | Mammoth(55) | |
| Average | 31% | 52% | 23% | 39% |
| Median | 28% | 50% | 23% | 40% |
| 75th percentile | 46% | 77% | 37% | 52% |
| 25th percentile | 16% | 32% | 5% | 12% |
Here's last Thanksgiving at Mammoth, 70% open. Mammoth is also a 90+% drive-up market, so people can make last minute calls whether to go. So yes it was hopping a year ago, but with plenty of lifts open to handle the traffic. Mammoth is 10% open now; it's a close call IMHO whether they can make enough snow to get the chair 2 parking open for Thanksgiving. Formal holiday festivities are organized at Mammoth only for Christmas and July 4.
For Christmas Week, the volatility in the wrong direction hurts Mammoth relative to these other more consistent places:
Mammoth is less than half open in 18% of seasons and less than 1/4 open in 9%.
Vail is less than half open in 12% of seasons and less than 1/4 open in 3%.
Whistler is less than half open in 7% of seasons and less than 1/4 open in none of the past 27 years, though I'm sure it was in 1976.
Alta has never been less than 67% open in the past 25 years. From the Alta Guard data, only 1976 out of the past 78 years would have been under 1/4 open and perhaps 2 more seasons under half open.
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Interesting as always. Thanks.
On the topic of Thanksgiving I'll make sure we visit Kylie's aunt in SLC late November one year. I'm keen to experience the vibe of Thanksgiving. We will be the people that will have the intention of November turns but will happily drive south for a few hours to have a few days checking out those magnificent rock formations if there is understandably no snow.