Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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This week's storms have lived up to their billing, especially in Colorado with 20+ inches over most ski areas. It will be interesting to see how much terrain gets opened for the Thanksgiving holiday. Hopefully quite a bit, since all the OpenSnow guys say we will have the high pressure from hell for the first half of December over the entire West.
snowtrekker
New member
With all the terrain expansions announced today and tomorrow at Mammoth, we’ve decided to make a last minute trip to ski Thanksgiving day, stopping in Death Valley on the way back.
Similar to last season if I’m remembering correctly. That left a legacy of unstable snow across the west. Hopefully this dry spell is not as prolonged, though it seems to be at least as widespread.
EMSC
Well-known member
Or you can reverse the logic and ski the east this mid-December, lol. Snow Ridge and Holiday Valley look to be in the 12-18" range for the first batch of lake effect
Multiple shots of cold forecast for the east in 1st half of Dec. Unfortunately looking like much hardpack for Dec again this year in the West. So I'll start getting better on my snowboard though!
tseeb
Well-known member
Mammoth got dumped on. Video starts with shot of snow on Dave McCoy statue in Village.
OpenSnow Tahoe says they received 48" in the last week and 63" for November. I was thinking about driving to Palisades (where they opened with lower part of Exhibition and recently added Red Dog and may have Funitel problems) to ski there on Saturday, then do another early morning start to get to Mammoth who has early opening and free breakfast at McCoy station for passholders (including Ikon) on Sun, 12/1.
But Kirkwood is opening on 11/30, 6 days before originally announced day so not sure I'll drive the 135 miles each way to Mammoth vs. 35 to KW. I'm double blacked-out opening Saturday as my Senior Tahoe Value Pass is blacked out all Saturdays at Kirkwood (and Northstar) and I'm blacked out at Heavenly on Fri and Sat after Thanksgiving. Heavenly opened two days early on 11/20 with Patsy's, Maggie's and Mombo, then added Ridge Run and Canyon chair. Today Heavenly opened limited skiing in Nevada. "The Nevada side is officially on deck, starting with Stagecoach Express and Stagecoach run tomorrow. Additionally, the Gondola will be open for skiing and riding access to the California side only via Lower California Trail. Return to the Heavenly Village will be available from California Lodge on our shuttles, which run every 15 minutes."
But Kirkwood is opening on 11/30, 6 days before originally announced day so not sure I'll drive the 135 miles each way to Mammoth vs. 35 to KW. I'm double blacked-out opening Saturday as my Senior Tahoe Value Pass is blacked out all Saturdays at Kirkwood (and Northstar) and I'm blacked out at Heavenly on Fri and Sat after Thanksgiving. Heavenly opened two days early on 11/20 with Patsy's, Maggie's and Mombo, then added Ridge Run and Canyon chair. Today Heavenly opened limited skiing in Nevada. "The Nevada side is officially on deck, starting with Stagecoach Express and Stagecoach run tomorrow. Additionally, the Gondola will be open for skiing and riding access to the California side only via Lower California Trail. Return to the Heavenly Village will be available from California Lodge on our shuttles, which run every 15 minutes."
They are calling for two weeks, which is at the outer limit of what forecasters are willing to mention. And the track record of these events is that the big ones are difficult to break down. Of course November last year was terrible and this year has been excellent in many places.
Nonetheless we need to look at how much is open Friday/Saturday to see who actually has an adequate natural base.
There's no way Heavenly is ready for prime time with 37 inches snowfall, measured high on the mountain, vs. the 65 at Main Lodge Mammoth. This week's storm hit Mammoth more than Tahoe, plus the lower elevations at Tahoe got some rain. Palisades' 59 inches at 8,000 feet vs. 11 at the base is a red flag for the rain/snow line. Kirkwood says 49 inches mid-mountain, might be OK but will fall well short of Mammoth IMHO.
Bachelor (120 inches), Whistler (100) and Fernie (98) are loaded with snow but how fast those places will open terrain remains to be seen.
The other safe bets besides Mammoth are Targhee (75 inches), Wolf Creek (94 inches) and maybe Alta (84 inches). For all of those places topography that allows most of the mountain to open on a 3-4 foot base is important. In that regard Vail (79 inches) could be an upside surprise this weekend.
The last time I visited the US at Christmas/New Year was 2017/18. From memory there was a huge high pressure system over the west that resulted in no snow for Grand Targhee and Alta between about November 28 and December 21st. We still managed to ski while we were there but even Alta was low tide. We may have a repeat of that this year.
Based on my drought experience last season at Val d'Isère, I recommend pulling the plug on this trip!
The trip is to take my mother in law to see her sister in person and for Christmas for the first time in over 50 years. Cancelling is not an option.Based on my drought experience last season at Val d'Isère, I recommend pulling the plug on this trip!
If there is no snow we’ll get Christmas Day done then drive south to the National Parks instead of north to Targhee/Jackson.
I was in Europe at the same time as you last year so I feel your pain. I did go back to Tignes in April though and got multiple fresh snow days so the addiction was renewed.
Right, I remember you mentioning the family aspect. In that case, it's great to have the various national parks as a Plan B. You have my blessing!
That is correct. My warnings about that situation got me kicked off another forum. I recall suggesting National Parks then, but I doubt that will be necessary this time. Utah and Colorado did not have a good November in 2017 and were really hurting over Christmas. Northern regions did much better and a few places like like the Tetons and Whistler had more November snow than this year. But Washington, Oregon and the interior Northwest are currently on another level, reputedly snowiest November in 15+ years. I'll have my first progress report with percents of normal up Saturday or Sunday.
I hit Brundage on Tuesday, and was really surprised at how well the trees rode. Normally, I wouldn't even consider trees this early in the season, but the almost 7 ft of snow so far this year (with some big time rain i the middle of the snowpack)... made for a great base. Didn't hit a thing.
unfortunately, the 30 day precip anomalies do look bad for most of the west.
unfortunately, the 30 day precip anomalies do look bad for most of the west.
Brundage monthly data started in 2009. The 69 inches so far are the highest November.
I don’t think that advice was specifically for me as I remember having Canada as a back up plan. I nearly enacted that back up but a storm rolled in about December 18 from memory.
tseeb
Well-known member
Heavenly and so far, the Olympic Valley side of Palisades, are skiing on man-made snow.
The Funitel problem is preventing access to upper mountain. "WaSheShu chair could fill in for getting folks up the mountain…but not down the mountain. I don’t pay attention to where snow is being made over there, but hopefully there’s an urgent rush to get Mountain Run in shape for getting folks down the mountain." Quoted from https://unofficialalpine.com/?p=21659 which also says Treeline Cirque, the only halfway good chair that was running until today on Alpine side (still only open to mid-station and bottom part, and bottom half going past Scott chair base, is too flat), was down for almost three hours on 11/27.
Alpine started running Yellow, Roundhouse and Summit lifts on 11/28 which sounds better than Exhibition only to mid-station and Red Dog on Olympic Valley side.
Kirkwood says their opening on Sat. will include chairs 5, 6 and 7.
Yes 38 trails open at Alpine vs. 4 at Palisades. Anyplace in Tahoe with low base elevation is not good. Mt. Rose and Kirkwood are the exception to that and even those are going be half or a bit less open this weekend vs. 90% at Mammoth today.
That's impressive. Will that percentage diminish if there is no snow for 3 or 4 weeks as expected?
Minimally. The lower mountain is mostly intermediate trails and snowmaking is available to supplement the busiest ones near the lodges. Snow on the upper mountain isn't going anywhere at this time of year with the altitude, exposure and low sun angle. I've skied packed powder and windbuff up there after 3 or 4 weeks with no new snow. If wind comes from the wrong direction it can strip the loose snow rather than deposit it, leaving firm conditions where you can slide a long way if you screw up on steep terrain.
The 90% is the 161 out of 178 trail count on Mammoth's website. In terms of acreage it's probably more like 80% with chairs 22 and 14 not open yet. Nonetheless Mammoth has probably the most open terrain in North America right now, but Whistler will surpass it soon. Whistler's Peak and Blackcomb's Glacier chairs are not open yet even though there is plenty of snow. Larry Schick is going there next week so I suspect he's quite confident. It will also be interesting to see when POWDR Corp will get around to opening Summit and Northwest at Bachelor. With the 120 inches of snow, that's a 100% management issue.
Mammoth claims even more runs open today, though chairs 9 and 22 are not open which means you have to hike for the latter. The not open chairs are probably due to seasonal staff not being here yet. This may affect some of the other places I'll mention.
Bachelor says 40% of trails but only 23% of acreage due to no Summit or Northwest. Whistler is at the same 44% as yesterday.
Targhee is fully open including the Colter lift. That compares to Jackson's opening day 4%.
Alta is 38% open, just shy of its 51% average for Dec. 1. Unlike Colorado, Utah and the Tetons had a very average November.
I couldn't find EMSC's comment about the I-70 resorts dragging their feet until just before Christmas, but this Thanksgiving confirms that assessment. Vail and Copper report 46 and 44 inch base depths, which is more than they average at Christmas. All of the other I-70 areas are in the 3 foot base range, which is more than they average mid-December. So how much is open on this holiday weekend vs. an average mid-December?
A-Basin 18% vs. 33%
Breck 21% vs. 48%
Copper 27% vs. 44%
Keystone 28% vs. 53%
Loveland 8% vs. 28%
Vail 35% vs. 64%
Winter Park 28% vs. 56%
The last Novembers with this much snow along I-70 were 2002 and 2010 and most of the areas were half or more open for Thanksgiving, somewhat higher than those long term mid-December averages since 1988. I only have Aspen back to 2004 but the same comparison there is 27% vs. 56%.
Bachelor says 40% of trails but only 23% of acreage due to no Summit or Northwest. Whistler is at the same 44% as yesterday.
Targhee is fully open including the Colter lift. That compares to Jackson's opening day 4%.
Alta is 38% open, just shy of its 51% average for Dec. 1. Unlike Colorado, Utah and the Tetons had a very average November.
I couldn't find EMSC's comment about the I-70 resorts dragging their feet until just before Christmas, but this Thanksgiving confirms that assessment. Vail and Copper report 46 and 44 inch base depths, which is more than they average at Christmas. All of the other I-70 areas are in the 3 foot base range, which is more than they average mid-December. So how much is open on this holiday weekend vs. an average mid-December?
A-Basin 18% vs. 33%
Breck 21% vs. 48%
Copper 27% vs. 44%
Keystone 28% vs. 53%
Loveland 8% vs. 28%
Vail 35% vs. 64%
Winter Park 28% vs. 56%
The last Novembers with this much snow along I-70 were 2002 and 2010 and most of the areas were half or more open for Thanksgiving, somewhat higher than those long term mid-December averages since 1988. I only have Aspen back to 2004 but the same comparison there is 27% vs. 56%.
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Wow. How much snow has fallen there so far? They must do a lot of summer/fall grooming.