American Election 2024
- Thread starter Sbooker
- Start date
I also think it unlikely Harris will win Iowa, but also strongly suspect Selzer’s latest poll is measuring something real in Iowa.
It’s no surprise I have seen hardly any Trump signs around Minneapolis and St. Paul. What I have been noting more of is Republicans-for-Harris signs, many on yards that sported McCain and Romney signs in 2008 and 2012. Obviously, the Twin Cities are pretty friendly territory for such signs. Rural Iowa probably not so much. Nonetheless, it’s not difficult to imagine a lot of Iowa, especially women and older folks, finding Trump’s descent into all-viscously-nasty-all-the-time as more than a little off putting.
For what it’s worth, Nate Silver has said he wouldn’t want to play poker against Selzer, which might just be one of his highest compliments. Selzer has also released outlier polls in the past that, in hindsight, turned out to be surprisingly accurate.
I analyzed Lichtman earlier in this thread. I disagree not with his 13 points but that I do not score all of those points the same as he does. I must also disagree with at least one point score in 1972 and 1988 as by my scoring those elections were misses, and bad misses because neither of those elections were that close.
In 2016 Silver wrote a very complimentary article about Selzer. Her specialty is the Iowa caucuses. I don't see that she does much work outside of Iowa, but has an impressive track record there. She admitted to a miss in her Iowa call in 2004.
The Silver article mentions 3 points that my friend Harold who worked in polling in the 1970's has cited to me over the years.
1) Selzer does not repoll people she has polled before.
2) Selzer avoids massaging data based on assumptions from past elections.
3) Selzer is meticulous in crafting questions. She is likely very good at this, sticking to the state she has lived in for decades. Harold says that in general pollsters do a lousy job crafting questions and are getting worse at it in the current era of polarization.
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Time to start the I-told-you-so's and pick a preferred theory to explain what happened!
Maureen Dowd wrote a NYT piece that underscores how being a candidate and an actual president are two different skill sets. Similar to Hillary in many ways, Harris was a mediocre candidate who came off as "aloof, guarded, opaque, and staged" vs. the orange one's "authenticity" of saying literally whatever (bracing MAGA truths) crossed his mind. I don't think the Dems are capable of taking any lessons learned from this.
Should've gone with Whitmer.
Maureen Dowd wrote a NYT piece that underscores how being a candidate and an actual president are two different skill sets. Similar to Hillary in many ways, Harris was a mediocre candidate who came off as "aloof, guarded, opaque, and staged" vs. the orange one's "authenticity" of saying literally whatever (bracing MAGA truths) crossed his mind. I don't think the Dems are capable of taking any lessons learned from this.
Should've gone with Whitmer.
The south can be weird. Guess Trump won North Carolina. For me, the good news is that all the top statewide jobs went to Democrats: Governor, Lt. Governor (completely separate office from the Gov.), and Attorney General. The incoming Governor has been Attorney General. The incoming Lt. Governor is a daughter of a former Governor (more than once). The current Democrat who is Governor was on the short list as a Harris VP pick. The current Lt. Governor is a Republican that even Trump stayed away from.
jimk
Active member
I held my nose and voted for DJT. He did not carry my state, so don't blame me 
I find the Prof Lichtman election prediction formula quite interesting.
As Tony C mentioned, it appears that Lichtman misread his own keys in 2024 and incorrectly predicted a Harris win. Re Lichtman's 13 keys, when five or fewer are false the incumbent wins, six or more false the challenging candidate wins (I think Lichtman only read 4 false key responses).
Here is another analyst's comments with the benefit of Nov 6 hindsight:
key 1 false
key 2 true but forced, Harris stepped in without a nominating contest
key 3 false, Harris is close as VP, but not actual sitting president
key 4 true
key 5 true
key 6 true
key 7 false
key 8 false, there was social unrest
key 9 true/false Biden stepping down is a semi-scandal
key 10 false Gaza situation has become a major failure
key 11 false
key 12 false
key 13 false Trump has a wacky form of charisma
I find the Prof Lichtman election prediction formula quite interesting.
The 13 Keys
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
As Tony C mentioned, it appears that Lichtman misread his own keys in 2024 and incorrectly predicted a Harris win. Re Lichtman's 13 keys, when five or fewer are false the incumbent wins, six or more false the challenging candidate wins (I think Lichtman only read 4 false key responses).
Here is another analyst's comments with the benefit of Nov 6 hindsight:
key 1 false
key 2 true but forced, Harris stepped in without a nominating contest
key 3 false, Harris is close as VP, but not actual sitting president
key 4 true
key 5 true
key 6 true
key 7 false
key 8 false, there was social unrest
key 9 true/false Biden stepping down is a semi-scandal
key 10 false Gaza situation has become a major failure
key 11 false
key 12 false
key 13 false Trump has a wacky form of charisma
jimk
Active member
I was really angry about it, but to answer your question, I guess not.
My stance in a nutshell: I don't like the GOP candidate, but like the platform. The Dem candidate is friendly enough, but I don't like the platform. I didn't think the world would end if either candidate won. I have faith in our governmental system and the basic goodwill of Americans. We need to get more people out on the ski slopes for some fresh air.
BTW, I read some of the piece you linked about DJT being the ultimate BSer and how that was part of his success. I found it fascinating and probably accurate.
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I appreciate your candor.
tseeb
Well-known member
From the Daily Beast I'm the Problem. It's Me.
"The thing is, people like me don’t want to believe that half of my countrymen support the things Donald Trump supports. We thought four years of corruption, lies, ineptitude, graft, and cruelty cured our dalliance with our authoritarianism. Turns out the following four years of recovery only whetted their appetite."
"The thing is, people like me don’t want to believe that half of my countrymen support the things Donald Trump supports. We thought four years of corruption, lies, ineptitude, graft, and cruelty cured our dalliance with our authoritarianism. Turns out the following four years of recovery only whetted their appetite."
My view of Lichtman keys:
key 1 false
key 2 true but forced, Harris stepped in without a nominating contest
key 3 false
key 4 true
key 5 true
key 6 true
key 7 true, I view the infrastructure, industrial policy, climate bills as significant, whether you like them or not
key 8 true, Both the BLM and Jan. 6 unrest occurred when Trump was president. The college Gaza protests are somewhat of a close call, but far from the level of the multiyear Vietnam protests.
key 9 true, Biden stepping down so late was the most fatal Dem blunder, but not really a scandal
key 10 false, Incompetent Afghan withdrawal was a black eye. Trump narrative is that it emboldened Russia and Iran.
key 11 false
key 12 false
key 13 false Trump has a wacky form of charisma
My total of 7 predicts a close loss for the incumbent party, which is the now observed result.
key 1 false
key 2 true but forced, Harris stepped in without a nominating contest
key 3 false
key 4 true
key 5 true
key 6 true
key 7 true, I view the infrastructure, industrial policy, climate bills as significant, whether you like them or not
key 8 true, Both the BLM and Jan. 6 unrest occurred when Trump was president. The college Gaza protests are somewhat of a close call, but far from the level of the multiyear Vietnam protests.
key 9 true, Biden stepping down so late was the most fatal Dem blunder, but not really a scandal
key 10 false, Incompetent Afghan withdrawal was a black eye. Trump narrative is that it emboldened Russia and Iran.
key 11 false
key 12 false
key 13 false Trump has a wacky form of charisma
My total of 7 predicts a close loss for the incumbent party, which is the now observed result.
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Explanations:
Recall the Bret Stephens column from last week.
Ross Douthat had one too. James, can you get this out of the paywall?
Here's one today from Politico: Trump Has Humiliated his Foes.
Key paragraph:
Recall the Bret Stephens column from last week.
Ross Douthat had one too. James, can you get this out of the paywall?
Here's one today from Politico: Trump Has Humiliated his Foes.
Key paragraph:
I'll be happy to taunt McConnell. As I posted earlier, he was the guy that could have put a stake through Trump after Jan. 6 but chickened out. That article argues persuasively that "Trumpism" is a durable force now. It's hard to argue with that, but it would be nicer for it to be led by someone who respects the Constitution.
ShiftyRider
Member
So like I wrote upthread LOL, high turnout favors Trump. I think everybody working his 2020 campaign tried their hardest to get him to stop sabotaging that. Foremost Mike Pence.
FWIW last month I advised the NY judge via Twitter that he needed to mail himself what the Trump sentence would be, and leave the postmarked envelope sealed.
FWIW last month I advised the NY judge via Twitter that he needed to mail himself what the Trump sentence would be, and leave the postmarked envelope sealed.
You knew this was coming: MAGA Schadenfreude
I have not a lot of sympathy for Lichtman, when he answers some of his own keys not objectively but based upon personal bias. Trump had the edge in THREE of those metrics? Get real. I thought the whole point of the 13 keys was to make you choose one side or the other for each of them.
Here's some real MAGA Schadenfreude. Yes the author is partisan and sometimes over the top. But there's little question that most of the mainstream media hates Trump and were not above spinning the most apocalyptic interpretations of his speeches.
Much of the mainstream media spoke in not that different apocalyptic terms about George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, which is not wearing well these days. The world did not come to end with W, nor for that matter with Trump in 2016. Is Trump a real threat to democracy this time? I think there's a nontrivial chance, but why should people believe these warnings coming from the same people who have cried wolf for the past two decades?
The first TV I watched yesterday was CNBC from 4-6PM. Most financial commentators think politics is a sideshow. The U.S. economy and stock market will keep humming along and ignore the political noise. I've attended a few Ken Fisher presentations, and he says the financial community roots for political gridlock in order to avoid unexpected surprises. CNBC said that many large company CEO's do see Trump as high risk for unexpected surprises, and of course don't like his tariff proposals. CNBC said small business is firmly in Trump's corner because of the pass-through provisions of the 2017 tax bill.
Here's some real MAGA Schadenfreude. Yes the author is partisan and sometimes over the top. But there's little question that most of the mainstream media hates Trump and were not above spinning the most apocalyptic interpretations of his speeches.
Much of the mainstream media spoke in not that different apocalyptic terms about George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, which is not wearing well these days. The world did not come to end with W, nor for that matter with Trump in 2016. Is Trump a real threat to democracy this time? I think there's a nontrivial chance, but why should people believe these warnings coming from the same people who have cried wolf for the past two decades?
The first TV I watched yesterday was CNBC from 4-6PM. Most financial commentators think politics is a sideshow. The U.S. economy and stock market will keep humming along and ignore the political noise. I've attended a few Ken Fisher presentations, and he says the financial community roots for political gridlock in order to avoid unexpected surprises. CNBC said that many large company CEO's do see Trump as high risk for unexpected surprises, and of course don't like his tariff proposals. CNBC said small business is firmly in Trump's corner because of the pass-through provisions of the 2017 tax bill.
I believe that the Republicans still have an Electoral College advantage this time, but it will be less than in 2020 and probably 2016 as well. My guess is that it will be similar to Obama's edge in 2008 and 2012. Best guess is that Trump did 7-8 points better than 2020 in overall popular vote, but so far he has done 9-11 points better in the 4 most populous states, CA, TX, FL, NY. It always takes a long time for California vote to come in (59% reported now, 22 hours after polls closed), so there's some uncertainty, but NY is 94% counted and FL and TX 99%.
FYI I think it's bad that CA won't start validating mail-in ballots until the polls close now that 80+% of ballots are mail-in. Some other western mail-in states are slow in reporting too: UT 66%, AZ 68%, OR 78%.
Trump currently has a popular vote lead of 4.5 million (3.3%), which is likely to end up more like 3.5 million after California is fully counted. This will be more than Hillary's popular vote margin in 2016 or George W. Bush's in 2004. So the polls were off more than in 2016 but not as much as 2020. Faint praise? Ann Selzer is eating humble pie this morning and trying to figure what went wrong in her 15 point error for Iowa.
It's a red herring to be blaming the Electoral College for Trump's success. Read the articles I linked in post #333 above.
FYI I think it's bad that CA won't start validating mail-in ballots until the polls close now that 80+% of ballots are mail-in. Some other western mail-in states are slow in reporting too: UT 66%, AZ 68%, OR 78%.
Trump currently has a popular vote lead of 4.5 million (3.3%), which is likely to end up more like 3.5 million after California is fully counted. This will be more than Hillary's popular vote margin in 2016 or George W. Bush's in 2004. So the polls were off more than in 2016 but not as much as 2020. Faint praise? Ann Selzer is eating humble pie this morning and trying to figure what went wrong in her 15 point error for Iowa.
It's a red herring to be blaming the Electoral College for Trump's success. Read the articles I linked in post #333 above.
Obama would have, as I demonstrated before.
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